The Oreshnik’s Significance

Russia used a new hypersonic medium-range missile in Ukraine last week known as the Oreshnik, whose existence previously hadn’t been disclosed and thus came as a surprise to all observers. It follows Russia’s warnings that it would respond to the West allowing Ukraine to use their long-range missiles against targets within Russia’s universally recognized borders. This was therefore an escalation, but it wasn’t unprovoked, and the Oreshnik is the natural result of Russia’s military-technical progress. 

The US’ withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty made this weapon possible. The first compelled Russia to research and develop hypersonic missile technology for piercing the US’ missile defense capabilities, while the second led to the creation of such missiles with short and medium ranges. Both treaties were fundamental pieces of the prior strategic security architecture that America unilaterally destroyed in its quest for hegemony.

By pulling out of the ABM Treaty, the US wanted to bolster its chances of surviving a retaliatory/second strike in the event of nuclear war, thus raising the odds that it could carry out a first strike with drastically reduced consequences. As for why it withdrew from the INF Treaty, that’s because it wanted to field short- and medium-range missiles in pursuit of the aforesaid first strike goal, with these complementary decisions combining to create a latent existential threat to Russia.

The Oreshnik’s first significance is that it therefore foils these plans by neutralizing the benefits that the US assumed that it would receive by scrapping these two strategic arms control treaties. Its missile defense systems are now worthless while Russia also has the same edge that the US does in any hypothetical first strike. Strategic parity has thus been restored, which represents a defeat of the US’ hegemonic plans to coerce Russia into a series of unilateral concessions through nuclear blackmail.

This observation segues into the psychological impact of these new hypersonic medium-range missiles. It’s important to mention that they contain Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) that are designed to hit many targets at once and evade missile defense systems. Last week was the first time that the MIRVs, which is an old technology that’s typically associated with nuclear weapons, had ever been used in combat. This should remind the West of Russia’s strategic and nuclear capabilities.

Accordingly, Russia wants Western decisionmakers to reconsider the wisdom of continuing to escalate their proxy war in Ukraine since the worst-case scenario of it spiraling out of control into a direct hot war could entail unthinkable consequences. Likewise, this message also isn’t lost on the Western public either, which Russia hopes might pressure their leaders into de-escalating. While it’s unlikely that this would have any effect, it serves to highlight the stakes involved in this conflict if it continues escalating.

These strategic and psychological impacts lead to the Oreshnik’s political impact. The historic use of this state-of-the-art missile in combat is also designed to shape the terms of a future peace treaty with Ukraine and the subsequent reconstruction of the European security architecture that the US destroyed. Russia has consistently said that it will demilitarize Ukraine, which is all the more important now that its adversary is employing long-range Western missiles whose use requires direct Western assistance.

One of the goals of Russia’s special operation was to preemptively avert latent security threats emanating from NATO’s then-clandestine expansion into Ukraine. The strategic and military dynamics changed since February 2022 as the West continued escalating by arming Ukraine with increasingly sophisticated weapons, mostly recently long-range missiles. For that reason, these weapons will either have to be withdrawn as part of a peace treaty, destroyed, or a buffer zone created to protect Russia.

Dramatically unveiling the previously secret Oreshnik in response to the West’s latest escalation shows that Russia considers Ukraine’s use of these long-range missiles to be completely unacceptable and that it won’t tolerate its adversary retaining these capabilities. In the absence of any meaningful dialogue on politically resolving this conflict, the most realistic options are to destroy them in combat or create a buffer zone that encompasses all Ukrainian territory east of the Dnieper and some of its western bank.

This imperative leads to the Oreshnik’s immediate military significance. President Putin disclosed that they’ve entered into serial production so they might soon be used more frequently in the coming future to assist with frontline operations and attacks against strategic targets behind the Line of Contact such as command and control centers, arms depots, and bridges. Before creating a buffer zone in Ukraine, Russia must first obtain full control over the entirety of the four regions that joined it in September 2022.

Its armed forces continue gaining ground in Donbass, and if they liberate Pokrovsk and the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration, they’ll then be able to complete Donbass’ liberation before finishing the job in neighboring Zaporozhye’s territory east of the Dnieper prior to contemplating crossing the river. A sliver of Zaporozhye and a chunk of Kherson lie west of the Dnieper, but going beyond the borders of Russia’s new regions on its eastern bank instead could lead to a territorial swap as part of a compromise.

For example, whatever else Russia gains in Kharkov Region and might consider capturing in Dnepropetrovsk could be traded back to Kiev in exchange for it giving Russia those two areas west of the Dnieper. This might not be as far-fetched of a scenario or as lengthy of a campaign as some might think since the liberation of Pokrovsk and the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration could lead to a collapse along the front lines and unprecedented Russian military-territorial gains in the aftermath.

The Oreshnik could potentially assist with this, especially if it’s used to destroy command and control centers, arms depots, and bridges far behind the front lines in preparation for this next possible offensive. Russia doesn’t just want to liberate the entirety of its new regions, but it must also ensure that Ukraine can never again threaten it with Western long-range missiles, ergo the need to coerce Kiev through military means into demilitarizing everything east of the Dnieper and some of its western bank.

That outcome would represent a strategic defeat for the West. It sought to turn Ukraine into a bastion from which to threaten Russia so some of its leaders might consider conventionally intervening in the conflict out of desperation to at least preserve the possibility that everything west of the Dnieper could still fulfill this function. In other words, they might want to bifurcate Ukraine into a demilitarized east and a militarized west through such brinksmanship, expecting that Russia won’t bomb its troops.

Therein lies the Oreshnik’s final significance. Everything that’s been hitherto described is meant to deter the scenario of a conventional Western intervention, which could freeze the conflict along the Dnieper and thus perpetuate the security threat that Ukraine’s continued use of Western long-range weapons would pose to Russia if they remained deployed along its western bank. Russia’s demilitarization goal couldn’t be completed in that event, thus leading to only a partial success of the special operation.

There’s always the chance that President Putin’s grand strategic calculations might change depending on how the conflict evolves, but for now and recalling his bold decision to use the Oreshnik in response to the latest escalation, there’s a real possibility that he’d order them used against Western troops if they conventionally intervene in Ukraine in pursuit of the aforesaid objective. He’d have every right to do that, and the West might not want to want to risk the consequences, so they might be deterred.

Of course, it also shouldn’t be assumed that Western policymakers are entirely rational since their conduct thus far suggests that they do indeed exhibit signs of irrationality, which means that they might risk the consequences of Russia using the Oreshnik against their conventional troops in Ukraine. If that happens, then a Cuban-like brinksmanship crisis would follow, albeit one in which the US wouldn’t have the edge that it assumed it would when it withdrew from the ABM and INF Treaties.

Russia also has more secret weapons systems that it hasn’t yet unveiled and it’s massively producing missiles and drones without harming its economy. Therefore, the US wouldn’t be able to win a conventional conflict with Russia, nor could it defend itself form a second strike like it earlier thought. These factors could then lead to it de-escalating on more of Russia’s terms through a compromise whose details can only be speculated upon at this point. In any case, it won’t inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.

The Oreshnik plays a crucial role in why that won’t happen for the reasons that were explained. It has all the trappings of a game-changer if it’s massively produced and soon used more frequently in combat. Even if its numbers remain minimal, its hypersonic capabilities and medium range make it a formidable addition to Russia’s arsenal, and its existence proves that strategic parity has been restored with the US. Western warmongers would now do well to think twice before further escalating the conflict.