Polish-Ukrainian Security Pact

Introduction

An “Agreement on Security Cooperation between Ukraine and the Republic of Poland” was signed on Monday, July 8 during Zelensky’s visit to Warsaw, where he met with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk before they both set off for this year’s NATO Summit in DC. To call the agreement comprehensive is an understatement since it’s the most detailed set of bilateral ‘security guarantees’ that Ukraine has reached with any country thus far, including the UK and the US, and amounts to a new form of alliance.

Like Ukraine’s earlier aforementioned pacts with the Anglo-American Axis, its latest one with Poland places a lot of attention on the continued procurement of its military-industrial needs but also involves security cooperation on a wide range of domains from the cyber to information, among others. Where it differs from them is the depth of such cooperation as well as Poland’s role in guiding Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration processes with the EU and NATO as its ‘big brother’ of sorts.

Ukraine is being taken under Poland’s wing and shown the ropes about how best to implement the required reforms for membership in those blocs. No stone is left unturned in terms of their planned socio-economic, military, and political cooperation, which will result in as close of a common national space between them upon completion that’ll solidify Poland’s role as the West’s gateway to Ukraine. This will endow Poland with hegemonic influence over that former Soviet Republic from here on out.

Preamble, Scope, & Objectives

Having explained the importance of this pact, the analysis will now turn towards summarizing some of its details in each of its eleven sections (a preamble, nine parts, and final provisions), some of which will be grouped together like in this subsection. It won’t redundantly repeat everything contained therein since the reader can read the pact themselves if that’s what they want to learn, but will instead draw attention to some of the most significant aspects for the convenience of those with limited time.

Looking beyond the generic anti-Russian declarations in the text and related statements about their envisaged victory that are scattered throughout, the preamble reminded everyone that Poland was the first country to recognize Ukraine’s independence in 1991. They also “reaffirmed their common historical legacy, and recognized the closeness of both cultures, languages, and political traditions of their Nations”, which sets the emotive socio-political and historical basis upon which their new pact is built.

Although security and defense are the primary focus, which is in line with 2023’s G20 Joint Declaration on Ukraine, they also pledged to further strengthen their long-term relationship in all respects. Regular consultations will take place on strategic matters, particularly the political, military, security, defense, and economic ones that are enumerated in the document and which will be touched upon throughout this analysis. The goal is to achieve what Kiev regards as maximum victory over Russia.

Co-Op In The Event Of Another Conflict Or A Significant Escalation Of The Present One

The next section is short but still significant since it mandates consultations within 24 hours of either abovementioned scenario. Poland is also obligated to impose political and economic costs on Russia right away, and these could be coordinated with all the signatories of last year’s G20 Joint Declaration. Although no troop deployments are promised, they could amend their pact to align with whatever else Ukraine agrees with its other partners, thus hinting that a multilateral intervention isn’t being ruled out.

Defense & Military Co-Op: Ukraine’s Military Capabilities

The next part of the pact has four sections, which will be covered individually in this analysis. The one about Ukraine’s military capabilities will see both parties sharing their best practices and relevant experiences with one another in order to “enhance their mutual security”. This confirms that Poland considers Ukraine to be integral to its national security. It’ll accordingly maintain its military support for “as long as it takes” to achieve maximum victory through arms exports, training, and other means.

These are specifically detailed in this section and concern everything from tanks and jets to “constituting strategic stockpiles”, though it’s unclear whether any of the latter will be based on Polish territory. Everything will also be coordinated with NATO, the EU, and other multilateral frameworks via the continuance of the POLLOGHUB (Polish logistics hub) initiative, and both sides also commit to keeping up the LITPOLUKRBRIG (Lithuania-Poland-Ukraine Brigade) project.

Additionally, “Poland, at the request of Ukraine, will encourage Ukrainian citizens to return to Ukraine to serve in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and other security and defence forces”, which hints at an impending coercive repatriation campaign against male refugees. They also agreed to continue exploring the possibility of Poland intercepting Russian missiles over Ukrainian airspace, though the caveat is that this has to be agreed to by the organizations involved (i.e. NATO), which haven’t yet supported it.

Defense & Military Co-Op: Training & Exercises

There are only two unique aspects of this section compared to the previous pacts that Ukraine already agreed to with others. The first is that “Poland will continue organising English language courses for the Ukrainian Armed Forces at Polish military universities and specialist trainings”. This could speed up the process for training Ukrainians to operate advanced Anglo-American weapons like fighter jets, which require advanced English education, and open up more seats in the UK and US for other students.

The second unique aspect is that “Ukrainian nationals temporarily residing in Poland and other States will be able to participate in the training process”, which refers to all training on offer and not just the English classes that were just described, thus creating a ‘Ukrainian Legion’. Male refugees elsewhere in the EU could thus be expelled back to Poland on the technicality that they didn’t apply for refugee status there, seeing as how it’s the first safe country they entered, and then be coerced to join the legion.

Defense & Military Co-Op: Defense Industry Cooperation

Apart from what one might have already expected regarding continued cooperation in this sphere, it also concerns the integration of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex (MIC) into NATO’s and the EU’s, with the innuendo being that Poland will serve as the bridge/gateway and thus strengthen its influence over Kiev. Other details include the possibility of Poland locating some of its MIC production in Ukraine and including Ukrainian enterprises in their production chains, thus essentially merging the two with time.

This envisaged outcome becomes obvious when reading about how “Ukraine will commit to including Polish enterprises” over the course of its efforts to achieve maximum victory, rebuild its MIC after the ongoing conflict finally ends, and then do what’s needed to obtain “effective deterrence” to “ensure peace” in Europe. Vague promises of space cooperation and Poland pledging to keep up its servicing and repairing of Ukrainian military equipment round out the most interesting parts of this subsection.

Defense & Military Co-Op: Road To NATO

This subsection is self-explanatory, but readers should also be aware that “they will cooperate to guarantee further development of NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre (JATEC) in Bydgoszcz, Poland.” This is the first-ever joint institution between NATO and Ukraine, which reinforces Poland’s role as Ukraine’s ‘big brother’ and the West’s gateway to that country. Poland and Ukraine also said that there’s no alternative to Kiev’s full membership in NATO such as its raft of bilateral pacts.

Non-Military Co-Op: Critical Infrastructure, Civil Protection, & CBRN Risks

There are eleven categories of non-military cooperation, with these first three being nothing out of the ordinary in any regard. Poland will help rebuild Ukraine’s critical infrastructure in coordination with their mutual partners, continue providing support for first-responders and the like, and expand cooperation on strengthening Ukraine’s resilience to chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear hazards. These parts are intended to highlight the depth of their comprehensive cooperation in this pact.

Non-Military Co-Op: Cyber Security, Secure Digital Transformation, & Information Security

As with the above, this also highlights the wide range of spheres in which they’re cooperating. The first part will see Poland obtain more influence over Ukrainian data and communications systems; the second will do the same with blockchain, AI, and quantum technologies; while the third involves Poland promoting Ukraine’s cause to the EU and others while also counteracting “propaganda”. The cumulative effect is that Polish influence will further expand throughout the Ukrainian state. 

Non-Military Co-Op: Intel, Terror, Organized Crime, & Illegal Immigration

Cooperation in these fields will bring their special services a lot closer, and Ukraine is expected to gradually take Poland’s lead on all of these issues. As a result, Polish influence will penetrate even deeper into the core of the Ukrainian state, which could lead to the creation of a pro-Polish faction similar in spirit to what Romania has already created in Moldova. With time, this faction might also agitate for uniting their countries, though that probably won’t happen for some time in the Polish-Ukrainian case.

Non-Military Co-Op: Maritime Security

All that’s important about this brief section is to know that “The development of Ukraine’s maritime fleet may be achieved through capacity-building efforts, industrial cooperation and training efforts as well as donations.” The Polish shipbuilding industry is a shadow of its former self, but it’s possible that joint efforts financed by the West could help to revive part of it. In any case, even if nothing tangible materializes, it’s still another way in which Poland wants to expand its influence over Ukraine.

Political Co-Op: Bilateral Relations

There are eight categories of political cooperation, with this one being the most detailed with twelve paragraphs that cover everything from business-to-business and financial cooperation to sci-tech, local government, and even textbook and curriculum cooperation. About the last ones, these will “particularly build on the Polish-Ukrainian brotherhood in arms in the 1920 war with Bolshevik Russia”, though they’ll also predictably downplay how Poland wrestled away Eastern Galicia and Volhynia during that time.

After all, this subsection mandates that “The Participants will develop close and friendly relations in all areas, based on shared values and solidarity” so contentious events such as that one, Khmelnitsky’s Rebellion, the “Koliivshchyna”, and other dark times in bilateral ties likely won’t be dwelled upon much. Poland might also begin whitewashing the Volhynia Massacre, which it recognizes as a genocide and whose victims it commemorates every 11 July, but that event is too well-known among Poles to deny.

About that, Poland and Ukraine “decided to strengthen cooperation in carrying out searches, exhumations and other activities for the dignified burial of victims of conflicts, repressions and crimes committed on the territories of Ukraine and Poland.” They didn’t mention the Volhynia Massacre/Genocide, but that’s what they’re referring to. This shows that Poland won’t let the issue go despite their enhanced ties, but it’s also not letting it become an obstacle to their improvement either.

Readers should also be aware that “The Participants will consider concluding a new bilateral Treaty, which will comprehensively regulate the entirety of relations between the Participants”, which could either be a comprehensive trade agreement or perhaps a tangible move in the direction of unification. It’s too early to speculate what form it could take, but observers should nonetheless keep their eyes on this since their socio-economic and political ties are poised to massively expand through this pact.

Political Co-Op: Social Care

Most of this section is Poland boasting about everything that it’s done to help Ukrainian refugees since the latest phase of that country’s conflict began almost two and a half years ago and Kiev implicitly acknowledging this by agreeing to the text. It’s a way for Poland to show that it’s already been behaving as Ukraine’s ‘big brother’ before this pact was negotiated, thus making the de facto enshrinement of its senior role in the text appear more natural than if these facts weren’t mentioned at all.

Political Co-Op: Road To EU & Co-Op In Other Fora

The pact then segues into explaining how Poland will support Ukraine every step of the way as it carries out reforms for joining the EU. Importantly, they agreed to closely consult and amicably resolve any challenges along the way such as in the agri-food sector. The next part just sees Poland present itself as Ukraine’s ‘big brother’ in a range of other fora like NATO, the G7, UN, OSCE, Council of Europe, OECD, the World Bank, the IMF, European financial institutions, and even the European Space Agency.

Political Co-Op: Sanctions, “Just Peace”, Compensation For Russian Damages, & Accountability

No elaboration is required to understand what these four sections involve. They’re the standard anti-Russian sloganeering about enforcing sanctions, achieving Ukraine’s maximum victory, stealing Russia’s seized assets, and organizing a tribunal after the conflict ends. Ukraine will also ratify the Rome Statute to participate in the International Criminal court. This part of the pact is purely political and intended to show that Poland fully supports everything that Ukraine says about and does against Russia.

Economic Stability, Recovery, & Reconstruction: Economic Dimensions

This part has two categories, with the present one stretching for eighteen paragraphs. It begins by reaffirming Poland’s role as the West’s hub for Ukrainian aid and then moves along to discussing the modernization of border infrastructure. Poland will facilitate Ukraine’s economic recovery and reconstruction through state, private, NGO, and local government participation, which they claim will be transparent, though that of course can’t be taken for granted given the precedent thus far.

Poland will also help guide Ukraine’s relevant reforms, such as those concerning human capital and institutional capacity, while these two once again pledged to find ways “to limit negative impact on agricultural markets and ensure fair competition on the Single Market.” Both sides will help each other’s entrepreneurs too, with Ukraine agreeing to simplify bureaucratic procedures for Polish ones in what’ll inevitably lead to the accelerated expansion of Polish economic influence in post-conflict Ukraine.

Economic Stability, Recovery, & Reconstruction: Connectivity

Road, rail, and air connectivity will increase, including through new expressways and modernizing existing railways, and Poland will also supply Ukraine with electricity and LNG. Digital connectivity and telecommunications will be expanded too. If successfully implemented, these plans will make Ukraine more dependent on Poland than ever before and place them on the path of forming a confederation, but it’s premature to predict that they’ll definitely move in this direction even though it can’t be ruled out.

People-To-People Contacts, Local Government Co-Op, & Humanitarian Assistance

As with some of the earlier sections of their pact, this one is also self-explanatory and leaves no doubt about how deeply Polish influence is spreading throughout all areas of Ukrainian society and the state. Although presented as an equal partnership, everything that’s been revealed about the text shows that Poland is indisputably the senior partner/’big brother’ while Ukraine is the junior one/’little brother’, but this relationship was voluntarily agreed to by Kiev, whose authorities accept this second-class status.  

Reforms & Final Provisions

Drawing to the end, the penultimate section makes explicit what was already known about the way in which Poland will guide all of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration reforms for joining the EU and NATO, while the last one mentions that this pact will remain in force for ten years. What’s most important though is that “Poland is ready to deploy technical experts embedded in the Ukrainian administration”, which will entrench its rapidly growing influence and likely lead to Ukraine becoming a Polish client state.

Concluding Thoughts

Polish influence is poised to surge throughout all parts of Ukrainian society and the state as a result of their latest comprehensive security pact, which devotes considerable detail to socio-economic and political cooperation in order to create a new form of alliance between them. Poland is the senior partner/’big brother’ while Ukraine is the junior one/’little brother’, which is clear from Ukraine’s completely lopsided strategic dependence on Poland in all respects as proven by their new pact.

What’s most dangerous about this development is that Poland might seriously consider a conventional military intervention in Ukraine’s support, even outside of NATO’s aegis through a ‘coalition of the willing’ among the bloc’s members, if Russia achieves a military breakthrough across the front lines. Poland has way too much to lose if Ukraine suffers a total strategic defeat since potentially tens of billions of dollars’ worth of future trade and investment opportunities could be lost in that scenario.

The pact’s reference to the LITPOLUKRBRIG and the planned creation of a ‘Ukrainian Legion’ could form the tip of the spear if Poland decides to conventionally intervene in Kiev’s support by racing Russia to the Dneiper in order to place swathes of Western Ukraine indirectly under NATO’s nuclear umbrella. There’s no way that this pact wasn’t authorized by America, to whom both Poland and Ukraine answer, and it’s unimaginable that the US would leave Poland out to dry by letting Russia pulverize it if it intervened.

That’s not to say that the US would win any hot war with Russia, but just that the risks of one breaking out would dramatically spike if Poland conventionally intervened in Ukraine in order to protect its ultra-lucrative impending trade and investment opportunities in the event of a Russian military breakthrough. The pact’s clause about possible amendments in the scenario of a major escalation and the other one about Poland intercepting Russian missiles over Ukraine suggest that this is already being considered.

If no breakthrough occurs and the conflict’s military-strategic dynamics remain static (i.e. continuing to trend in Russia’s favor but falling short a game-changer in its support), then Ukraine’s future will almost certainly be as a Polish client state. Its subordinate status would resemble that which it experienced during the erstwhile Commonwealth and the Second Polish Republic, though the public might finally accept this hierarchy unlike before if they’re desperate enough for reconstruction and military aid.

Furthermore, with Kiev committing itself to “close and friendly relations in all areas”, especially through textbook and curriculum cooperation that downplays the dark periods in their history, the next generation might become “Polonized” even if they remain Orthodox. If Poland fully exploits its new hegemony over Ukraine, particularly privileged access to its resources (natural and labor) and market opportunities (arms and reconstruction), then it might become a major geopolitical player by the 2030s.