Political interregnum in Türkiye and Erdoğan's Fate

After winning the 2018 general elections, Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by Raccep Tayyib Erdoğan faced multiple challenges both in the political and economic spheres. Raccep Tayyib Erdağon has ruled the country since 2002 and transformed Türkiye into a robust middle-income economy through vital political, institutional, and economic reforms. The financially strong Türkiye today is the result of the widespread reforms carried by the ruling AKP led by Erdoğan over the course of decades.

In the last two decades, financial robustness, and political stability were the key determinants of nationwide support for the Erdoğan’s rule in Turkey. In the previous elections, the ruling AKP swept the polls without a slight cleavage in the voter bank. However, the upcoming general elections seem to be most critical and difficult for the ruling AKP and Erdoğan himself due to massive polarization surrounding growing economic woes, the refugee issue, and the growing debate about Presidential form of system in the country.

The fate of Erdoğan is yet to be decided by the people, who share mixed opinions about the 20 years long AKP-led rule. The upcoming election is the toughest challenge for President Erdogan due to intense political polarization in the country.

Since the nationwide referendum, which was held on 16 April 2017 to change the political system from a Parliamentary to a Presidential form, Türkiye went through major transformations across the political and economic spectrum.

The pro-western opposition mainly led by the Republican Party (CHP) opposed the move on the pretext of dangers to the democratic nature of the republic. The western countries also condemned the move by declaring it an authoritarian act by President Erdogan to further consolidate his grip on power in the country. Since then, a national and international conspiracy was launched to harm and weaken Türkiye by using financial and political tools. For instance, in 2021 Türkiye was placed on the FATF Grey list for not complying with FATF in curbing so-called money laundering and terror-sponsored activities. Likewise, In January 2021 the US, the UK, and the EU imposed sanctions on Turkey in response to its violation of international sovereignty laws and for illegal arms sales.

In order to adhere to the applicable sanctions regulations, companies engaging in business activities in Turkey, or with clients based in Turkey, must have a comprehensive understanding of their screening responsibilities. These responsibilities may encompass trade and commercial restrictions, freezing of assets, and restrictions on travel, among other measures. Very recently, following Russia's intervention into Ukraine, Turkey has resisted Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO, citing their purported support for the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and Syria's Democratic Union Party (PYD), both of which are prohibited in Turkey.

However, yesterday President Erdogan approved Finland’s NATO Membership but kept Sweden out due to its support for terror activities of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Hence, the incessant pressure from western countries on Türkiye and Erdoğan’s insistence on protecting Türkiye’s sovereignty made him a prime target of the collective west. It is no more secret that the Collective west is attacking Türkiye’s sovereignty by supporting a pro-western coalition against Erdogan.

The ongoing political and economic woes which are the product of a western conspiracy against Erdogan gave the pro-western opposition an opportunity to steal the show with the support of their western collaborators.

The major challenges President Erdoğan face can be divided into two categories: Political interregnum domestically and anti-Erdoğan alliance led by the west.

The political interregnum in Türkiye refers to the widespread political polarization due to economic woes, growing anti-Erdagon sentiments, and anti-refugee politics. Due to the Civil War in Civil War in Syria, Turkey became the largest holder of Syrian refugees fleeing the war zone in Syria. As per UN estimates approximately 3.5 million Syrian refugees are currently residing in the country, which became a key factor behind the political polarization in the country.

The pro-western opposition in the country blames the AKP government led by President Erdogan for the mismanagement of refugees by feeding them on Türkiye’s taxpayer’s money. Perhaps, this has become a key tool of the opposition coalition to break the AKP’s voters’ bank. Recently, the powerful earthquake that hit Türkiye on February 6, 2023, caused huge damage to the infrastructure in ten major cities and resulted in 48,000 deaths further exacerbating the political polarization.

The coalition of 6 led by the major opposition Republican party blamed President Erdagon for unreadiness and gross mismanagement of the crisis. Hence, the earthquake became another political tool for the opposition coalition to target Erdagon to break his voter bank. By using every political means, the opposition is attempting to create a political cauldron to defeat Erdagon in the upcoming elections.

On the contrary, at the international scale, President Erdogan has been already a villain in the eyes of the Collective west who does not obey their order ranging from being a troublemaker in the NATO bloc to a Putin sympathizer. In the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian war, President Erdagon refused to participate in the western led sanction program against Russia and refused to side with the collective West. This was perhaps a redline breach for the Collective West, which continued pressuring Erdagon to comply with the Western rule. Hence, for the collective west, the upcoming election is the best opportunity to overthrow him by putting all-out support behind the opposition to win the polls.

President Erdogan is an experienced politician who understands the geopolitical realities and is aware of the political cauldron set up by the collective west. Hence, the upcoming elections are the existential episode for his political career, and will do everything to uphold the people's support. By all means, President Erdagon’s fate is not tied to the Collective West but rather to his people, who support and trust his leadership despite intense political polarization. Since the upcoming elections are not symbolic but a turning point because 2023 marks the 100 anniversary of the Republic of Türkiye.