Terrorist attack in Yerevan

On Monday evening, a terrorist attack took place in the center of the Armenian capital of Yerevan. An explosion on a bus killed two people and injured four.

The geopolitical context

The explosion rocked Yerevan in the context of the latest exacerbation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, only a day after Armenians across the world commemorated the victims of the Armenian Genocide. No matter who organized the explosion, it will undoubtedly be followed by a rise of anti-Azerbaijani and anti-Turkish sentiments in Armenian society, which could in turn trigger a further escalation of the conflict.

The United States - the only beneficiary

The only party with a vested interest in the conflict is the United States. A new massacre in the South Caucasus will compel Russia to divert attention away from other international problems and will challenge it with yet another refugee problem. An escalation would also necessarily complicate relations with either Armenia (in the case of Russia failing to support it) or Azerbaijan (in the case of Russia supporting Armenia). The possibility of a conciliatory, neutral position for Russia in the case of a full-scale war will soon exhaust itself. In the case of a conflict, Turkey will be obliged to assist Azerbaijan and, in addition to the Syrian and Kurdish conflicts, will find itself immersed in another war. As a result, Russia and Turkey will come into conflict and attempt to block each other. In this case, the United States will try to take the most profitable position of being a third-party “mediator.”

Forecast

The terrorist attack in Yerevan is only profitable for the US. We can expect an intensification of protests and militancy in Armenian society which is directly counter to the beneficial adoption of a peace plan now being worked on in Moscow. It can be expected that the pro-American network in Azerbaijan will attempt to incite further anti-Armenian sentiments, thus influencing the Azerbaijani elite to escalate hostilities.

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Terrorist attack in Yerevan