The crisis in Portugal: a political civil war between liberals?
The liberal right coalition - PSD and CDS-PP (1) had the majority of votes as a single political force, but for the first time there have been atempts of a broad understanding between the forces of the left - PS, BE and CDU (2), which together have the majority of seats in Parliament. In Portugal, the prime-minister is appointed by the President, so as the President was a prominent member of PSD it was not difficult to guess the outcome. In a public speech, the President, Cavaco Silva, appointed the leader of PSD (and also current prime-minister) as the next head of Government. What was serious and grave was the fact that according to the President some political forces should never be part of a political solution of government, namely BE and CDU, because they do not share the values of European Union, and so forth. We must add that Cavaco Silva is the least considered President of the 3rd Republic, and it is seen as having a major role in the broader crisis that affects Portugal for years. It is certain that Portugal had several minority governments, but the new fact is that the majority opposition seems for the first time to be willing to make an agreement that ables it to form government.
But let's take a closer look at the portuguese situation. PSD and CDS-PP ruled together for four years now. As good pupils of the troika (IMF, World Bank, EU), they have cut salaries and pensions, raised taxes, and introduced severe neoliberal policies, privatizing public companies and services, and reducing the funding to essential social services as the public health system and public schools. It is liberalism of the worst kind, protecting the wealthier and the corrupt banksters and injecting billions of euros in bankrupt banks, whilst denying basic support to many of the vast number of poor portuguese families. The coalition between PSD and CDS-PP affected the later enormously, causing it to embrace more and more liberal views and politics. In the past CDS-PP was seen as a conservative christian party, defender of family values, and the social doctrine of the Church. It is no more. Now it embraces almost unanimously neoliberalism and post-modern beliefs and attitudes.
PS on the other hand has the same view as PSD towards the EU and international affairs in general, although it defends broader social policies whilst remaining deeply liberal in other subjects. There is no major difference between PS and PSD, the two parties that have effectively ruled Portugal since the birth of the 3rd Republic in 1974! As liberalism means slow death for any country, choosing PSD or PS will only vary the way you will die, the outcome will be the same. The new President of Parliament has just been elected, it is a former secretary-general of PS and a known Bilderberger.
As for BE, it has since its origin, merging three marxist political parties (PSR, UDP and Política XXI), brought to the public fracturing themes as gay and LGTB rights in general, euthanasia, liberalization of drugs, animal rights, free abortion, sexual education at public schools and so on. Nonetheless the party has been critic of the economicist model of the EU, of the power of big corporations in Europe and even of the european currency. In the recent years it has suffered dissent from some prominent figures of the party, some of which desired the party to adopt more social themes, dropping the fracturing themes.
As for CDU (PCP plus Os Verdes), the PCP still sustains the communist orthodoxy, and it is the only non-liberal party of the portuguese parliament, although sometimes forced by the rising strenght of BE to adopt more progressist policies.
In what concerns other smaller political forces, the non-liberal parties and groups have only a residual weight in portuguese society, even those related to the portuguese Catholic Church, which is day by day more infected by liberalism, progressivism, and ecumenism, in broad sense.
In January we will have Presidential elections, and it is almost certain that the candidate supported by PSD and CDS-PP will win with a confortable margin, maybe even in the first round. Cavaco Silva mandate is reaching its end, and he deals with harsh questions: the new PSD/CDS-PP government will be empowered but it is doubtful that it may see its government program or the State Budget approved. PS, BE and CDU have sworn to reject the government program, which implies the resignation of government if the rejection is voted by the absolute majority of the MPs. On the other hand even is the government program is approved, each of the opposition parties can present a motion of censure, that if approved by the absolute majority of the MPs will have the same effects. As the President cannot dissolve the parliament in the last six months of his mandate, it is almost certain that in case of government resignation the government will remain in functions, being just a management government.
The next President will have to deal with this problem, but it is not sure that stability will arrive soon. It is very unlikely that the next President will accept a PS, BE and CDU government, unless there is a political earthquake and the new President is other than expected. The most likely scenario is that the new President accepts the resignation of government and summons new elections. What will happen then it is a mystery.
With high rates of abstention and a growing lack of trust in the Republic and politicians in general, the people seems to have chosen a path of passive resistance, even of apathy and sufferance. The voters are really conservative about their choices, so it is difficult to see something change abruptly as it happened in Greece. It is sad but true, the grip of Washington, of Brussels and international or domestic plutocrats is still tight on Portugal. The apparent struggle between PS and PSD is like a dispute between two burglars, fighting to divide the loot. However, there is always hope that something good can emerge from this crisis, and that the public perception and the strenght of liberalism can be somewhat wear out by this situation, making room for non-liberal forces to grow.
1. PSD: Social-Democrat Party. CDS-PP: Social Democratic Center-Popular Party.
2. PS: Socialist Party. BE: Left Block, union of leftist tendencies and parties, including maoist and trotskist, with a very liberal social agenda. CDU: Unitary Democratic Coalition, permanente coalition between the PCP (Portuguese Communist Party) and Os Verdes (The Green).
