Iran prepares a proxy-war against Turkey

The threat of war

Sadr's movement, and other Iraqi Shia forces, promised a deadly response to the Turkish aggression against Iraq. The movement declared that it can start a Holy War against this aggression. "If the Turkish forces don’t withdraw from Iraq, the Islamic resistance will target them with new and advanced techniques," Sadr movement leader, Safa al-Tamimi, told Fars News Agency on Thursday. Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella organization composed of some 40, almost exclusively Shiite, militias also vowed to attack Turkish forces if they do not vacate from Iraqi soil..

Winter is coming

During the Iraqi-Turkish conflict, Iran announced that its supply of natural gas to Turkey will be reduced because of the very cold winter. It is unlikely to be a coincidence. Previously Iran sent to Turkey 28-30 million cubic meters of Iranian gas, but two days ago this was reduced by 50-60% - up to 14-15 million cubic meters. This forced the state fuel operator BOTAŞ of Turkey to prepare a special program for the next 15-20 days.  After a short cut, Iran resumed supplies. Thus Iran is showing to its former friend that Tehran can use an economic weapon to destroy the imperial dreams of Ankara.

Shia forces in Iraq

Shia-Muslims constitute 60% of the Iraqi population, and always have the majority in national elections. Since 2005, Iraq has existed as a parliamentary republic continuously ruled by Shia-governments. Iran is providing military aid to the official government of Iraq and the Shia-militias (Popular Mobilization Forces), and they are trained by Iranian militaries. While Iraq officially not will to wage war against Turkey, its Iraqi proxies are able to do this work.

Many Shia-military organizations formed during the Iraq war enjoy support from Iran and act in its interests. However relations are more delicate than a simple model of “master-servant”. In Iraq there are the holy sites of Shia Muslims Najaf and Karbala, and that is a land of martyrdom of Shia Imams, including Ali.

Eschatology of the conflict

The growing tensions between the Turkish Sunni Islamist government, and Iran and the Shia-world as whole, raises the question of the Fitnah. This Islamic term means internal war in the Islamic World.  In Islamic eschatology, it will precede  coming of the Dadjal (the Antichrist).  The Turkish-Iranian confrontation  has its own eschatological implications. According to prominent contemporary Islamic scholar Sheikh Imran Hosein, a giant army of Islamic non-fundamentalist states (Iran, Egypt, Syria) with support from Russia will attack and defeat Turkey. It will be the Malhama (great war), prophesied by the Prophet Muhammad, that will make the end of the world closer.

As Shia version of Islam is filled with eschatological expectation (e.g. notorious Army of Mahdi in Iraq) it is understandable that the conflict with the Sunni powers is perceived in this perspective.  A Shia-Christian alliance against Sunni powers manifested today in the Russia-Shia alliance is believed to be predicted in Kitab Al Jafr, a lost book of secret teaching that belonged to Shia Imams.