Biden and possible resumption of the conflict in Ukraine

New Ukrainian Front

To neutralize Russia and provoke a destructive processes within the country that can destroy it as a geopolitical competitor to the United States, it is necessary for the US to open at least another front. The most probable candidate is Ukraine. The conflict is still not resolved, peaceful settlement was stalled due to the diametrically opposed interests and aspirations of the parties. Among many foreign policy problems, the Ukrainian conflict is the most sensitive for the people of Russia.  The Russian government must react because of its close proximity to Russia, and the geopolitical importance of the second largest Slavic state.

The resumption of combat activity in Ukraine

On Monday night, just for Biden's visit, the Ukrainian armed forces fired more than 100 mines and shells at the outskirts of Donetsk. According to the Donetsk People Republic sources, troops  controlled by the Kyiv regime continue to bring in tanks and multiple rocket launchers  to the contact line. Ukrainian troops also occupied villages located in the buffer zone: Gnutova, Zhovanka, Pavlopol, Pishevik and Shirokino.

The activities of the Ukrainian authorities show that they are preparing for an offensive against the rebels in eastern Ukraine. The question is only when the offensive will begin. It is possible that this issue was discussed at a personal meeting with the de jure president Petro Poroshenko. As a result of the fact that Ukraine is actually controlled from abroad, Biden proved personally demanding, requiring changes in the leadership of the country. In his opinion it is necessary to have the Attorney General resign. There is no doubt that this decision will be carried out.

The sign of support

It is possible that Biden’s visit will start a new process of escalation of hostilities in the Donbass. Joe Biden said Monday that Washington remained determined to make Russia to hand back Crimea to Kiev. That demand undoubtedly will provoke negative reaction from Russia's side.

Biden's visit is to show that the White House supports Ukraine.  The US vice president will speak on that issue Tuesday in the Ukrainian parliament. According to the Associated Press, a senior administration official said that, Biden's trip "is a weighty symbol of our support" for Ukraine. Once again, demands on Russia associated with the development of the Minsk Agreement will be put forward. 

One of the key parts of the Minsk Agreement which the US insists on requires the transfer of control of a section of the Russian-Ukrainian border in the south-east of Ukraine over to Ukrainian authorities. That is unlikely to be done by Russia because threatens to cut communications to Donbass. That pretext is likely to be used by Ukrainians to stop the peace process.