Belarus expects to receive the IMF loan of $3 billion in exchange for economic reform. In July, the IMF mission visited Minsk to discuss with the leadership of the country the possibility of allocating credit for $3.5 billion. The compulsory condition was the privatization of the public sector and reform. The IMF insists on transforming the Belarusian economy into the neoliberal model.
The IMF reform proposals include support for vulnerable systems across three years (2016-2018) and increase in tariffs for housing and communal services across five (2016-2020). At the same time, the IMF wants to first see how the reforms are implemented, and then they will provide credit.
Currently, Belarus' economy is in a downturn. Over the last year the volume of investments in the real economy sector declined by a quarter. Foreign exchange reserves of the country were reduced. The inflation of the national currency continues. The IMF loan, even if it will be gained, is unlikely to save the country's economy, according to experts, especially as it will be allocated piece by piece, in tranches, but not simultaneously.
Implementation of the IMF's proposal could lead to the disruption of the majority of social programs and a complete restructuring of the existing social system in Belarus. Namely, the social character of the state, until recently, provided public support formed by A. Lukashenko's political system. The neoliberal economic projects presence can mean the self-destruction of the existing Belarusian regime.
Obviously, in using the economic problems of Belarus, the United States, using the IMF as an economic instrument of its geopolitics, seeks to involve Belarus in its area of influence. The main task is to generate enough power to change the country's protest potential. And this will inevitably happen after the IMF proposals are implemented. The US experts and their number of European and Belarusian Atlanticist colleagues repeatedly express wishes to include Belarus in the “cordon sanitaire” around Russia. The Ukrainian crisis, which made Belarus take an ambiguous position, strengthened their confidence in the possibility of such a reorientation, if not of Lukashenko himself, but a significant part of the Belarusian elite without Lukashenko.
At the same time as the EU's goodwill, it lifted sanctions against 170 individuals and three entities, including the president of Belarus. This act has a symbolic meaning. If you will follow economic proposals, we can conclude that the EU is also seeking to involve Belarus in its area of influence, using the problems in the Russian economy. Previously, the leadership of Belarus stated that Russia is ready to support the economy of the country. In 2015, China allocated a loan of $7 billion to Belarus. The leader of Belarus continues to pursue a multi-vector strategy in economic relations. However, in terms of the political conflict between Russia and the West, it may lead to the aggravation of their relations.
