Will Wagner group re-join the battlefield in Ukraine?

The Wagnerites exile to Belarus has raised questions concerning the Kremlin’s bigger plans in case of any NATO’s provocation in the wake of the forthcoming Vilnius summit. There have been rumours that Poland and Lithuania are planning to create the ‘Coalition of Willing’ to deploy several brigades into the Western Ukraine. Hence, the sudden exile of the Wagnerites to Belarus has raised questions since they are now 100 KM away from the Kiev and in case of any NATO’s intervention; there is a possibility that the Wagnerites might join the battle from Belarus. The Wagner deployment in Belarus has already caused panic in Europe especially in Poland.  Last week, during his visit to Ukraine, Polish President Andrzej Duda actually confessed the danger posed by the exiled Wagner fighters in Belarus to Poland and Europe. The Wagner group despite criticism and controversies is a well-trained and well-equipped private military organization with extensive experience on the battlefield in Syria, parts of Africa and recently in Ukraine, where the group has courageously liberated Bakhmut. The group is famously known for the tactical battle and battle-tested pattern tactics.

Weeks before the Wagner’s mutiny attempt in Russia on June 24, Moscow already announced the deployment of Tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. Now the sudden exile of Wagnerites to Belarus in the wake of the failed Mutiny attempt raised eyebrows among the NATO members. The European leaders especially Poland and the Baltic States have already raised concerns regarding the deployment of the Wagnerites to Belarus. Though it may be a speculative fear of the Eastern European states bordering Belarus but from the strategic point of view, the deployment of Wagnerites in Belarus indeed increases the prospect of their return to the battlefield in Ukraine. Days before the failed abortive mutiny, the defacto head of Wagner group Yevgeny Proghozin announced the return of the Wagnerites on the battlefield on August 5. Hence, the sudden and surprise deployment of the Wagner group to Belarus after the failed mutiny raises a lot of questions concerning their future role in Ukraine. Since the liberation of Bakhmut, Wagner group through public relation campaigns has established itself as the most popular and lethal assault group in the World. However, their logistics and, financial support depends on the Russian State because it was not the Wagner strategy rather Russian artillery and airpower that contributed to the liberation of Bakhmut during Winter offensive. Most of the Military experts both in Russia and the U.S. declared the Bakhmut meatgrinder as the bloodiest infantry battle since  World War II.

The Russian military General, who was responsible for the Bakhmut meatgrinder was General Surovikin, the most feared General in the West, who is often refer to as “General Armageddon”. His role in the Syrian conflict has been vivid because of his successful strategy in the liberation of Aleppo city that changed the tide of war. In October 2022, Russian defence Ministry under the orders of President Vladimir Putin appointed him as the commander of the combined group of troops in the area of the special operation in Ukraine. However, later in March this year, he was appointed as the commander of the Russian Aerospace forces, the position, which he is currently holds.

The battle for the Bakhmut was his plan to grind the Ukrainian forces in large numbers. According to reports, Ukraine lost approximately 70,000 well trained soldiers in the Bakhmut meatgrinder Operation. Basically, it was the obsession of President Zelensky with Bakhmut that allowed General Surovikin to devise a plan to grind a large number of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut. This plan turned out to be successful as the Ukraine lost approximately 70,000 well trained army personnel’s and thousands wounded. The Battle for Bakhmut became the graveyard for the Ukrainian military with largest death records in the infantry warfare since World War II.

 Since the beginning Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine, the war for the Ukrainians have become the war of attrition with approximately 350,000 deaths on the battlefield. Though a year and a half has passed, Russia still calls the war in Ukraine as the Special Military Operation (SMO). Excruciatingly, the casualties on the Ukrainian side are beyond the scale of ordinary violence in the conventional warfare and the level of destruction is beyond comprehension. To be precise, Ukraine is fighting the war of attrition due to high casualties and losses of military equipment on the battlefield. There are two major reasons behind the heavy casualties and losses of equipment on the Ukrainian Side. First, since the last May, Russia has deliberately destroyed the air-defences and other critical military infrastructure through precision strikes. Second, after the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive last autumn, Russian Military changed the tactics and began deliberately targeting the Air force capabilities of the Ukrainian military by precisely downing warplanes and destroying airports. 

At the moment, the situation in Ukraine is not in favour of Ukrainian military, which is fighting the most disastrous war of attrition against the Russia. Despite, the failure of the recent long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive, which began on June 4 last month, U.S. and her European allies are still hoping for some kind of success in the battlefield, which realistically and even from the Military standpoint is not possible. Because without proportional air defences and airpower, the loses both in terms soldiers and military equipment will be catastrophic for Ukraine. Nonetheless, the U.S. and NATO understands the scale of violence and it seems that in the forthcoming NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11 might be a turning point in the Ukrainian conflict. Though, NATO cannot directly enter the conflict but there is a quite a possibility that a “Coalition of Willing” led by Poland will be created to deploy several brigades to western Ukraine. But how certain is that is still a question? if the so-called “Coalition of Willing” entered the western Ukraine then it is highly likely that Wagner also might enter Ukraine from the Belarussian side.