Will Modi have the last laugh in spat with Trump?

India has welcomed the much awaited direct talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump at Anchorage, Alaska.

An Indian official statement applauded the high-profile summit,  calling pursuit of peace by the two leaders, “highly commendable”. India’s foreign office praised the “progress” made in the talks and revisited its pet theme–that dialogue and diplomacy remain the only path forward. The phrase docks with India’s earlier iteration that the Ukraine crisis must be resolved not through armed conflict but through diplomacy and talks. 

Going beyond its idealistic pitch, India has real pragmatic reasons to welcome the promising, and potentially pathbreaking meeting between President Putin and Trump.

The Alaska talks come at a time when ties between India and the United States have plummeted. Trump has imposed 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods bound for the United States, which absorbs nearly 20 per cent of India’s overall exports. 

India’s decision to persist  with Russian oil purchases, despite the US President’s objections, has apparently angered President Trump, who imposed an additional 25 per cent tax on account of these transactions.

“India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits …. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA,” Trump railed.

A White House fact sheet further added that the “ Russian Federation’s actions in Ukraine pose an ongoing threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy… By imposing a 25% tariff, President Trump aims to deter countries from supporting the Russian Federation’s economy through oil imports and impose serious economic consequences on the Russian Federation for its ongoing aggressions.”

Adding fuel to the fire, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro slammed India for  purchasing Russian crude that, in his view, was funding Moscow's war in Ukraine.

"If India wants to be treated as a strategic partner of the US, it needs to start acting like one," Navarro wrote in an opinion piece published in the Financial Times.

The adviser also said it was risky to transfer cutting-edge US military capabilities to India as New Delhi was "now cozying up to both Russia and China."

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent further sought to pressure India by warning  that if talks between Trump and Putin did not yield results, secondary sanctions on India could expand.

"We put secondary tariffs on the Indians for buying Russian oil. And I could see, if things don't go well, then sanctions or secondary tariffs could go up," the US official thundered

With the US breathing down its neck, India has obvious interest in followup to the Alaska talks. In case it yields a Russo-US detente, which is not unlikely, India could benefit hugely. Budding friendship between Russia and the US, triggered by peace in Ukraine,  would throw economic curbs, especially exports of Russian crude oil , one of the mainstays of Moscow’s economy, to rising economies such as China and India, out of the window.

But a new phase of Russo-US engagement is expected to benefit India far more broadly. More specifically, it could open the doors wider for India’s strategic engagement with Russia and its broader Eurasian ecosystem.

For instance, apart from Russian resources, India could step up its military partnership with Moscow to an altogether new level, once there is detente between Moscow and Washington.

 Anchored  to its Make-in-India doctrine, India is likely to welcome co-development of military hardware with Russia, which could be exported to friendly countries, especially in the Global South. Already the Indo-Russian Brahmos cruise missiles–a result of co-development—have been successfully battle tested, stirring considerable interest among potential buyers. 

The Brahmos model of joint development can now be replicated in other advanced areas in the military field, without fear of direct sanctions from the Americans, though indirect pressure or inducements originating in Washington on New Delhi or Moscow can be realistically expected.

Second, a bigger outreach to Russia can significantly strengthen India's strategic autonomy, insulating it from compelling pressure from the West, thereby allowing it greater room to balance its relations with various poles of the emerging multipolar system.

As the full implications of  US tariffs sink in,  it is unlikely that India will view these duties merely  as a prompter for  tactical readjustments with the United States. On the contrary, miffed by the unreliability of the United States, the Modi administration is likely to adopt a deeper  strategic response to Washington's crude transactional pressure.

This is primarily because of the personality of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Brimming with civilizational confidence, Modi is convinced that a multipolar world is rising, and India is a powerful and independent pole in the multipolar constellation. Under Modi’s leadership, India is strongly pushing back against Trump’s attempt to crush India under a heap of tariffs, to turn New Delhi into Washington's tame ally.

Unsurprisingly, India’s counter to Trump’s bullying is already visible. All defence contracts with the United States have reportedly been put on hold. The outreach to both Russia, China and Brazil has expanded. In his independence day address, the very day when Putin and Trump were meeting in Alaska, Modi made it plain that India will not open its farming, dairy and fisheries sector to foreign players.

“Modi stands like a wall against any harmful policy related to the farmers, fishermen and cattle rearers of India.” Though he did not name the United States, it was obvious that the Indian Prime Minister was referring to the Trump administration,  which had demanded during official level talks that India should open up its market to US farm products.

Modi further added that, “Freedom becomes meaningless if someone becomes too dependent on others.”

Elaborating further, he nailed  fertilizers, jet engines, EV batteries, semiconductors, and defence systems as primary domains for self-reliance.

India’s next move to message the Americans will come at the month-end when Modi travels to Tianjin to meet Putin  and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit.

Ahead of the summit, Chinese Foreign Minister and State Councillor, Wang Yi visited New Delhi–a move that is likely to define the contours of  the expected Modi-Xi dialogue in Tianjin. Besides, Wang held detailed discussions with Indian foreign minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval on ways to resolve the India-China  border dispute.

Media resorts also suggest that two Indian airline companies have been put on standby to start direct flights to China, which had been stalled following Covid and the India-China border face-off that began in May 2020. Visa restrictions for Chinese tourists have already been eased, and Indians,  after years, went on a pilgrimage to lake Mansarovar in Tibet.

Ahead of the SCO summit, there has been considerable chatter about the revival of the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral.

Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov has led the charge to revive the RIC format. In late May, speaking at the Eurasia Security Forum, Lavrov stressed  that the time had arrived for the RIC’s revival as a result of  the thaw in the India-China relationship following the October meeting between Modi and  Xi on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan. “Now that, as I understand it, an understanding is being reached between India and China on how to calm the border situation, I believe the time has come to revive the RIC trio,” he said at the Eurasian security conference.

Taking the cue from Lavrov, the Chinese foreign ministry has unambiguously welcomed the possibility of the trilateral's revival.

“China-India-Russia cooperation not only serves the respective interests of the three countries, but also helps uphold peace and security and progress in the region and the world,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on July 17 at a press briefing in Beijing.

India too expressed readiness to revive the Troika at a suitable time.

“As to when this particular RIC format meeting is going to be held, it is something that will be worked out among the three countries in a mutually convenient manner, and we will let you know as and when that happens at an appropriate time when the meeting is to take place,” Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said in a July 18 media briefing in New Delhi.

It is evident that much water would have flowed down the Ganges, Moskva and the Potomac when Modi visits New York to speak in New York late next month at the UN General Assembly (UNGA). There are reports that a Modi-Trump meeting is being planned on the sidelines of the event. That may or may not happen, and much would depend on whether Trump gets the message that the moment has passed when India’s containment could be enforced by the US and the collective West.

The outing in New York will be followed, probably in November,  by the Putin-Modi annual summit when the unstoppable rise of the alternative multipolar world would have further strengthened. The big message for Trump is obvious–he could join the transitioning world order as a valued partner or be sidelined by history as an anachronistic failure.