Will Europe throw a “lifeline” to Iran?

On November 5, the “most powerful”, according to Donald Trump, United States sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) came into force. It affected 700 individuals and legal entities, includThe weakening of Iran from within should undermine its influence on the external contour - in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, which is sought not only by the United States, but also by their regional allies - Israel and Saudi Arabia. Washington put three conditions for the lifting of sanctions: Iran must abandon nuclear weapons, the development of ballistic missiles and influence in the Middle East. The first condition of the Islamic Republic of Iran is already fulfilled within the framework of the JCPOA, and the IAEA experts maintain constant control over Iranian facilities. All participants in the "nuclear deal", except for the States, confirm Tehran’s commitment to the terms of the agreement.ing the country's central bank and the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, and is directed mainly against oil exports, the banking sector and the shipping industry of Iran.

This is the second package of measures associated with the release of Donald Trump from the “nuclear deal”. In August, the United States imposed restrictions on trade in gold and other metals, Iran's auto and airline industries, as well as the national currency, the rial.

Washington's goal is simple - to overthrow the Iranian regime. A ban on the supply of oil, the volume of which has already been reduced by 1 million barrels per day, should worsen the welfare of ordinary Iranians and cause popular unrest. Although, apparently, the State Department does not take into account that as a result of strikes and economic meetings, the positions of conservative clerics, who have criticized the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) with the six international mediators - the United States, France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia - will increase .

The weakening of Iran from within should undermine its influence on the external contour - in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, which is sought not only by the United States, but also by their regional allies - Israel and Saudi Arabia. Washington put three conditions for the lifting of sanctions: Iran must abandon nuclear weapons, the development of ballistic missiles and influence in the Middle East. The first condition of the Islamic Republic of Iran is already fulfilled within the framework of the JCPOA, and the IAEA experts maintain constant control over Iranian facilities. All participants in the "nuclear deal", except for the States, confirm Tehran’s commitment to the terms of the agreement.

The other two points - the rejection of influence in the region and the development of missiles - are new, invented in the cabinets of the White House, conditions that are not related to SVPD. Tehran will never go for their execution. For he understands that further from him will require even greater concessions. For example, the limitations of conventional weapons.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has already announced that he will fight with American restrictions.

Will Iran succeed in doing this? The answer to this question depends not only on the mobilization resources of the Iranian economy and the political strength of the local regime. Tehran needs political and economic support from outside. China and the EU as the first and second trade partners of Iran have already announced that they will continue to do business with this Middle Eastern country.

On November 5, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo presented a list of eight countries that are temporarily being removed from US sanctions imposed on Iran. It includes China, India, Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey.

Given that China is already used to trading under sanctions, and now received relief from Washington, the position of the European Union will largely influence the well-being of the Iranian economy. EU trade with Iran has tripled since the lifting of sanctions in 2016, reaching $ 20 billion. More from China alone - $ 30 billion. Europeans have hopes not only in oil imports, but also in the development of gas fields, construction and infrastructure of Iran. Large TNK - Total, Peugeot, Deutsche Telekom, Deutsche Bahn and Daimler - after the US withdrawal from the JCPOA left the Iranian market.

On the eve of the introduction of sanctions Pompeo said that Europeans will have to choose with whom to do business - the United States or Iran, recalling that most European companies have already left Iran. Brussels previously announced the creation of a special mechanism that will bypass the dollar operations for the purchase of Iranian oil. Russia will participate in it, ready to play the role of a mediator. Even earlier, the EU promised compensation to those companies that would suffer losses due to the extraterritorial effect of the US sanctions.

Will Europe be able to continue business with Iran despite Washington? Here the question is not only about the protection of European investment, but about the independence of the EU. And no one has an answer to it yet.