Will Biden Continue Trump's Troop-Pullout Policy in Afghanistan?
Will the Biden government change Trump administration policy toward Afghanistan?
In the military and intelligence circles in Pakistan, it is being conjectured that Joe Biden is likely to reignite a series of 'dead wars' around the world. Over the last four years, world media had 'type-casted' Trump as irresponsible and reckless, in comparison to whom Biden appears rational and sagacious. In the light of facts however, such a superficial observation may catch the world by surprise. Biden is most likely to continue hawkish policies of the Obama era in the Af-Pak region. This analysis rests upon the assumption that American politics doesn't function as it is widely understood to be.1.
With that as a preamble, let us look at why Biden is not only likely to maintain a minimal level of American troops, he is likely to supplement the troop level with private military companies (PMCs) and Indian intelligence who train forces such as ISIS, TTP and Daesh. We will obtain evidence from two factors; firstly, Joe Biden's record as the VP of America and second, his campaign promises which are meant for those who funded three of his election campaigns; 2008, 2012 and 2020. It is important to keep in mind how many times America has promised to evacuate Afghanistan. In 2008, the US said that it will begin troop pull-out in 2011 but it never happened. After the so-called Bin Laden raid, they said they will pull out all troops by 2014 but in reality they reinforced the troop level in Obama's famous 'surge' plan. And since Trump's presidency beginning 2016 until now, they have been saying the same. In short, the American promises have no credibility whatsoever.
One of the first people to congratulate Joe Biden short of the official victory news was Eric Prince, the owner of a PMC called Blackwater. He offered his services to Biden to cooperate with him in reinforcing the hands of the PMCs in Afghanistan. After all, it was Joe Biden who facilitated the entry of Blackwater into Pakistan during Pakistan's toughest years of post-9/11 resistance against the Americans. Raymond Davis, whom Obama and Biden called a 'diplomat' was actually a Blackwater's terrorist who entered through Waziristan, killed many Pakistanis, followed by Pakistani intelligence and finally apprehended in Lahore. Compliant Pakistani authorities shamefully allowed him to be whisked away from Pakistan unharmed. In his election campaign promises, Biden vowed that he will support the Ghani government, and not let Afghanistan slip into the hands of the Taliban. This means more war against the Taliban.
Biden's Political Views
Biden's political views endorse Islamophobia and he sees Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan as a threat to world peace but ironically not countries such as Saudi Arabia and UAE. He is a self professed Zionist and anyone who understands the philosophy and geopolitics of Zionism should know well what they have done, what they are doing and what they intend to do with the Muslims globally. This means continuation of wars of aggression as in the past. This time they are employing hybrid war along with kinetic action with the help of PMCs and terrorists. Like Biden, most Zionists see Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and increasingly Turkey, as the heart of resistance against Zionism. Biden cannot even be imagined as a friend of the above mentioned countries. Moreover, his racist views are commonly known in the Washington circles. His loyalty to Zionism exceeds his loyalty to the American people.
Afghan Taliban refuse congratulating Biden
Taliban have warned Biden to honor the agreement between USA and Taliban government. According to one of our sources, the Taliban have sent a message to Biden reminding him that the agreement between the US and Taliban will bring peace in the region, it will be good for Afghanistan and it will be good for the USA. The Taliban further warned that if USA does not honor its agreement, the Americans will have to pay a very heavy price inside Afghanistan. They said that they will honestly fulfill their part of the agreement and expect that the Americans should fulfill their part of the agreement. The Taliban have cautioned the forthcoming Biden administration not to agree with the pro-war lobby in Washington, because they don't represent the voice of the American people. The Taliban sent a clear message to the deep state that if the US forces do not leave Afghanistan as promised and do not stop meddling in Afghan affairs after the pull out, they will consider hurting American interests beyond their borders. This was a veiled threat to American interest in India-occupied Kashmir.
The fate of the Afghan puppet government after the American troop pull-out: Is civil war in Afghanistan inevitable?
Serious analysts do not even ask this question. Since 9/11, Afghanistan is already in a state of a civil war. Civil wars happens when one or more factions assert their statehood but no one has a clear monopoly on the legitimate use of violence and everyone fights everyone else in short or protracted violence. All of this has already happened in Afghanistan. From here onwards, one can expect escalation leading to the final termination of this civil war. No new civil war can take place.
The difference between the Afghan civil war of the early 1990s and now is that in the earlier civil war after the Soviet withdrawal, there was no clear victor among the factions of the Mujahideen. A short civil war ensued in which the Taliban emerged victorious and formed the new Afghan state only to be taken out again in 2001. That civil war happened after the Soviet withdrawal. The current situation is different. The USA has not left, rather continues to spread more terrorism through PMCs, India's RAW and their local criminal proxies such as ISIS. With the help of India it is fast spreading local chapters of Daesh inside Indian occupied Kashmir to keep the western regions of China in a state of turmoil. In the current war, various factions of the Taliban (second generation Mujahideen) are one and united (please keep in mind that TTP is fake, created by CIA, supported by India), and all Taliban groups are fighting USA, India and the illegal puppet Afghan regime. The Taliban leadership has made it clear that they not stop fighting until all foreign forces, USA/India/NATO leave Afghanistan. The Taliban will not accept the puppet Afghan government and they will not use the Western political system to run their country. There is no negotiation on these principles. The only negotiation is on when and how all foreign terrorists and their supporters will leave.
This war has been on for the last two decades and the Taliban are stronger than ever militarily because they have improved military hardware and training, and they are stronger than ever politically because Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, Russia and China all agree that foreign forces should leave Afghanistan. All these countries have a consensus that development requires peace, and that American and Indian role was a spoiler of peace. After the withdrawal of all foreign forces (USA and India), the Ghani government will either go back with the Americans or the Indians or they will be brutally killed. There is no chance of a new civil war. However, there are plenty of chances of exacerbation of violence, because the Taliban resistance has following challenges: defeating the remaining US and Indian military presence short of a pull out, wiping out the PMC-supported terrorists such as ISIS after the promised pull out, cleaning up the Indian presence out of Afghanistan, neutralizing the ANA and inducting many of them into their own army. Three out of these four elements are currently against the Taliban, but inside the ANA there are many Taliban sympathizers who are ready to change uniform. As we have learned from 'green on blue attacks' since many years, we know that a large number of ANA soldiers have links with the Taliban except for a minority of fighters. There is no chance of a middle ground situation between the Taliban and the Ghani government. Even if a middle arrangement comes about, it is not likely to last.
It is important to revisit the causes that led up to the post-Soviet civil war in Afghanistan: there was rather abrupt Soviet withdrawal in the wake of the Soviet implosion, there was lack of proper coordination and consensus among the Mujahideen factions, Pakistanis policy preferences were unclear during the earlier reigns of Sharif and Bhutto governments, disinterested and domestically focused China not yet fully risen to its current level, Iran and Turkey were also unclear, and there was no BRI to be challenged by the one and only superpower, USA. Today, however the conditions are opposite; The Taliban factions are united. We have a clear policy preferences in Pakistan under the current civil-military leadership, China has risen, resolute and understands that its CPEC and BRI's future depends on peace in Af-Pak region. Russia is ever assertive and supports the Taliban, not the puppet Ghani government. Countries such as Turkey, Qatar, Malaysia have a different view of the Taliban than they did from 1996-2001. If the friends of the Afghan Taliban keep supporting them, the foreigners in Afghanistan will be thrown out, but before that condition arrives in time, there will be escalation in violence but not a new civil war among the Taliban mujahideen, and it will lead to peace on Afghanistan's eastern frontier and Pakistan's western frontier.
Finally, the US will abandon the Afghan government like it normally does with its useful but superficial allies. Who knows this better than the Pakistanis? These Afghans who were imported to form the American government were groomed in America. Hamid Karzai, Ashraf Ghani and Zalmay Khalilzad were a breed of anti-Pakistan, pro-India, pro-America and pro-Israel Afghan nationalists who were supposed to wipe out the Taliban, bring liberal democracy to Afghanistan and turn it into a compliant state. Since they have failed, if the US looses hold on all its bases in Afghanistan, it will recall or abandon all of its lackeys.
Will the peace process in Afghanistan change the evacuation schedule?
Those who are well aware of the diplomatic and military history of the US, it should be crystal clear that the US does not have any qualms with reneging its deals and promises. Therefore, we should not naively assume that the US will honor its agreement with the
Taliban. The US will only do that if it has no other choice left. Otherwise, expect more mischief, doublespeak and violence by the American and Indian presence in Afghanistan.
What are America's real intentions?
America is not a single reality. There are the American people, there is the American political system and then there's the deep state that controls most important aspects of America's existence, production and distribution of its wealth. The real intention of the deep state is to maintain its hegemonic status quo through the use of the powers of various Western nations, most notably the US. The political system of the US and its people want to end all the American wars. Since Trump is still in the office for the next two months approximately, his administration will conceivably do what is within their control to make necessary changes to de-escalate and disengage from its wars of aggression. However, the incoming President will have to listen to the deep state and maintain enough turmoil that is necessary to subvert the BRI and CPEC processes. Just as Trump intended to remind his followers that he will bring his troops back home, the NATO chief gave a statement to the contrary. Similary, India does not want the American pull out under any condition.
Will America fully Evacuate From Afghanistan?
America has pulled out enough troops out of Afghanistan over the last year. However, a full withdrawal is only possible if America honors its agreement with the Taliban and the Pakistani government. The cost of human withdrawal is minimal, however, the cost of military hardware withdrawal is staggering. The US wanted to sell its equipment to India through the land route of Pakistan, but the Pakistanis shot down that proposal, because that hardware would be eventually used against Pakistan. To destroy the sensitive technologies so as to not let the Chinese and the Pakistanis lay their hands upon them, it would require them more time. The most likely scenario is that US would use the PMCs to engage the Taliban while the Afghan puppet government is still alive and sell its equipment to its allies or destroy it. Shipping back older generation of military hardware is a financially losing proposition. If the US fails to accomplish that within a reasonable frame of time and Taliban's offensive increases, then the American equipment will ornament the newly formed Taliban army, or rust like the Soviet era tanks.
Policy Recommendation For China:
- Expect simultaneous continuation and discontinuation of the US-Taliban agreement: Trump's last days will see his efforts to bring back the troops from Afghanistan. Biden will pay lip service to the idea but do exactly the opposite. China should be ready to support the war effort in favor of the Taliban and Pakistan.
- Strengthen the Taliban's military capacity for the final spate of violence and continue to engage with the Taliban leadership for sensible power sharing in the post withdrawal scenario. Some of the homework on this has already been done by the Taliban and the latter are even amenable to retaining some aspects of the Ghani government who are Taliban sympathizers. But since we are still in a pre-withdrawal phase, it should be reiterated by China through its foreign mission. China should also convince the Dostum's northern alliance not to resist after the American withdrawal and make peace with the Taliban.
- China should add Afghanistan to its negotiating menu when dealing with India.
- China should not be perceived as dictating its policy preferences to the Taliban when it comes to the shaping their new social-political-economic realities. It’s a war torn nation since 1978 and they will take at least a decade to heal and normalize. The Taliban want a state rule that respects the teachings of Islam and do not run counter to them. Similarly, they want an interest free economy. This is a much longer and important subject. We'll be happy to consult on this issue with the Chinese government.
- After withdrawal or during the final battles in Afghanistan, the US is likely to turn hostile towards Pakistan. Yesterday, Pakistani PM Imran Khan visited Kabul and reiterated to the Kabul regime that in case of an attack on Pakistan from the Afghan soil, they will respond militarily against terrorists inside Afghanistan whether the source of terror are CIA, RAW or the NDS. The US and NATO are likely to blacklist Pakistan in FATF and prompt India to attack Pakistan's Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir regions. If this happens before or during the withdrawal, then Pakistan should be pressurized to scuttle the American withdrawal and start hitting terrorist targets inside Afghanistan, recognize Taliban government as the only legitimate Afghan government, open their embassies in Islamabad and Beijing and ask the puppet Ghani government to pack up and leave. Plus, except for minimal diplomatic staff, the US diplomatic compound should be rolled back to exactly the size of Pakistani embassy in Washington, D.C., in terms of area and number of personnel.
- China has been working on a parallel world financial system, Af-Pak should be given a preferential exchange rate with RMB that is commensurate to supporting poor families in these regions.
- Young, fit and literate fighters from the Taliban should be inducted into Airforce Training program separate from Pakistani GDP cadets, but trained inside Pakistan. It will take at least 10 years to have enough pilots who can eventually man the Afghan airspace with Pakistani and Chinese technologies. Once peace returns, these professionals can be moved to civil aviation.
1 If one assumes that the US power is controlled by its national imperatives, one would expect that Biden will want to pull out the American troops from Afghanistan, but if one assumes that both the Republicans and Democrats actually score their victories on the pockets of the American ruling elite, then one should expect that the American state will continue to behave as it has behaved over the decades, i.e., like an aggressor state bulldozing the world unilaterally for the sake of its elite's interests, and not for its national interests. Long term American objective is to subvert the rise of China if China doesn't capitulate to the demands of the deep state. China's continued rise is dependent on energy and trade routes, which may be denied to China if Pakistan and Afghanistan are kept in turmoil. Their strategy is to keep them simmering at a medium level of violence, just enough for BRI and CPEC not to reach fruition.