Will Atlanticist failure in Turkey trigger the creation of a mini-NATO in Northeastern Europe?
After the failed coup in mid-July this year, the strengthening of Eurasianism in Turkey could lead to stronger Atlanticist pressure on Europe's Northeastern front towards Russia.
If Turkey decides to wrestle away from the Atlanticist grip, and join the forces of Eurasianism and multipolarity, it could trigger further military integration of the Euro-Atlanticist oriented Nordic, East European and Baltic states in an attempt build up pressure towards the Eurasian Heartland, namely Russia. And with talks about the creation of a mini-NATO consisting of these same states, functioning as an Atlanticist sword, pointing towards Russia, stretching from the Arctic, down through the Baltic Sea, and all the way down to Ukraine.
Erich Dietz, a political analyst based in The Hague, has made comments referring to such a potential reality, saying that the USA wants to see a "strong and unified military and security front" comprised of the Nordic countries meant to face down Russia in the High Arctic region and the Baltic Sea (O'Dwyer: 18th May, 2016).
Dietz then went on to explain that: "The Nordic states are modern, politically stable and well-run planned economies. The message from Washington is that together they have the economic strength and resources to build a robust common regional defense in partnership with the US and NATO," (Ibid.). Thus the USA has a very strong interest in bolstering its presence and involvement in this area, especially in light of the fragile armistice in place in Ukraine, an armistice which could escalate into violence - triggering a NATO response - due to a provocation or renewed act of violence from the U.S.-backed Kiev government or other agents inside Ukraine.
In this regard, let us take a look at what we see happening in Northeastern Europe, and which organizations or dealings could be implicative of future operations of a confrontational nature vis-a-vis our neighbor to the East.
In 2009, the Nordic Defence Cooperation (NORDEFCO) was established, building on the foundation of earlier intra-Nordic security arrangements stretching back to the end of WWII. Although NORDEFCO is as a Nordic alliance, it is nonetheless closely associated with both NATO and the EU - thus making it a potential tool for Atlanticist interests in and around the area of Scandinavia.
In June 2016, it was reported that NORDEFCO is involved with integrating and strengthening the military and industrial connections between the Nordic member states. An example of this can be illustrated by Kongsberg Defence and Aurospace's acquisition of 49.9 percent equity stake in the defence group Patria Oyj, which is owned by the Finnish state (O'Dwyer: 10th June, 2016). Therefore, the creation of a pan-Nordic military industrial complex could be underway.
Also, in the Baltic region where it was recently decided by NATO to establish a permanent military presence facing Russia, the small states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are paying a heavy financial price. The Lithuanian government has agreed to increase the national budged spending on the military sector by 32 percent, planning to reach NATO's demand for two percent of GDP spending by 2020. Estonia's GDP spending is already exciding 2.1 percent, and Latvia raised its defense budged by 12 percent also in an attempt to reach the two percent GDP spending by 2020 (O'Dwyer: 27th June, 2015).
Poland is also an important pawn in the Euro-Atlanticists' game. Recently the Polish government decided to provoke Moscow by choosing not to renew the special border agreement that Poland had with Russia regarding land transport to and from Kaliningrad. Furthermore, the U.S.-build NATO missile system under construction in Poland, meant to protect Europe from "Iranian missiles" [SIC] (Huffington Post: 8th July, 2016) and which will be fully functional by late 2018, should not be discarded as a potential offensive weapon in a hostile situation between "East" and "West".
In case of the Nordic countries: despite Sweden and Finland not being members of NATO they are still closely tied with this Atlanticist organization in areas such as military mobilization, rearmament and intelligence sharing. Meanwhile, Norway and Denmark are spending unprecedented sums on military modernization. A few month ago, Denmark made the biggest military purchase in its history when 27 American produced fighter jets were ordered by the Danish government. In Norway, 11 military bases are set to be shut down in order to gather funds for future investment into the military. The level of planned investments into the military is the highest made by the Norwegian government since the end of the Cold War. In fact, the next 20 years the Norwegian government is planning to invest around $19.8 billion in modernizing the military - in 2016 alone the defense budged has risen by 9.8 percent (O'Dwyer: 1st July, 2016). Moreover, Norway is set to purchase 52 new Lockheed Martin F-35A U.S. produced fighter jets, same type as Denmark, at the estimated cost of $10 billion.
With all the above in mind, it is clear that things are being set in motion by the US and their Euro-Atlanticist puppets in Northeastern Europe for even more confrontation, fear mongering and taxpayer-funded militarization. If full focus will now be put on more military- and intelligence integration of Northeastern Europe and the creation of a mini-NATO, under the control of Washington of course, we can look forward to even more unamicable and provocative actions towards Russia and other Eurasianist-oriented countries.
"NATO Takes Over U.S.-Built Missile Shield, Amid Russian Suspicion" Huffington Post. Reuters, 8th July, 2016. Web. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nato-takes-control-of-us-built-missile-defense-shield_us_578009d5e4b0344d514f528b
O'Dwyer, Gerard. "Nordic Group Tasked With Strengthening Industry-Military Relations" Defense News. 10th June, 2016. Web. http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/industry/2016/06/10/nordic-military-industry-procurement/85686186/
---. "Norway To Reorganize Defense Spending in Response to 'Unpredictable' Russia" Defense News. 1st July, 2016. Web. http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/budget/2016/07/01/norway-military-budget-reorganization-armed-forces/86589482/
---. "Rising Tensions Boost Nordic, Baltic Spending" Defense News. 27th June, 2015. Web. http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/2015/06/27/finland-sweden-russia-nato-baltics-tensions-budgets-gdp/29289941/
---. "US Supports Drive for Nordic Defense Cooperation" Defense News. 18th May, 2016. Web. http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/2016/05/18/us-supports-drive-nordic-defense-cooperation/84543374/