Why Did Trump Assemble the EU, the Arabs and Israel in Warsaw?

Poland launched a summit with the participation of the United States, European and Arab countries. Will Trump be able to unite the EU and the Sunni countries to fight against Iran?

While world leaders are preparing for a conference in Munich, in a nearby Warsaw, the Americans are holding their own alternative summit. Unlike Munich, where they will discuss all without exception problems for the security of the globalist world, in Warsaw, Iran will be the main problem. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Vice President Mike Pence, accompanied by White House adviser Jared Kushner, will try to form an international consensus on the Iranian threat to world stability.

Warsaw - alternative to Munich

For decency and, in order not to scare away Western Europeans, at the last moment the USA changed the summit agenda. Instead of “Iran’s destabilizing role”, it is proposed to discuss “Promoting future peace and security in the Middle East”. However, no expert has any doubts that, despite attempts to veil, the message of the meeting is the same - anti-Iranian.

In addition to Pompeo, Pence and Kouchner, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will arrive at the summit. The rest of the major European countries will be represented at a lower level. The meeting also expected the heads of the Foreign Ministry of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Yemen, Kuwait, Morocco. Tunisia and Egypt sent their deputy ministers.

The place and set of participants of this summit is not accidental. Poland is a loyal ally of the United States in Europe. It was the first European country that Trump visited after taking office. In Poland, there are American missile defense systems and terminals for receiving American LNG are being built. Unlike the Germans and the French, the Poles support the sanctions of Donald Trump against Iran and condemn the attempts of the European Union to undermine these efforts by creating a mechanism to bypass the sanctions. Warsaw and Washington are united by an anti-Russian strategy. Poland proposes to host the US medium and shorter range offensive missiles after exiting the INF.

Each of these three players - the Arabs, the EU and Israel - has its own function in Trump's anti-Iranian strategy.

From Europe, Trump is seeking financial and economic strangulation of Iran. The United States imposed sanctions against Iran and are waiting for the same from their European allies. But if the EU manages to create a mechanism to bypass American sanctions and continues to buy Iranian oil, then Trump will not be able to weaken Tehran’s influence in the Middle East.

If we talk about the Arab countries, Trump is going to put them together in the "Arab NATO". This military alliance consisting of Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf countries should restrain Iran after the US leaves the Middle East. The American president has already announced the curtailment of presence in Syria and Afghanistan. The same action is expected from the Pentagon in Iraq.

Each of these three players - the Arabs, the EU and Israel - has its own function in Trump's anti-Iranian strategy.

If we combine these two tasks - the rallying of Europe and the Arabs against Iran - then they are subordinated to the same global goal. Protect Israel. The most pro-Israel administration in Washington is experiencing that strengthening Iran at the expense of trade with Europe will transform this economic power into political one. Tehran will expand its influence in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, build ballistic missiles and will be able to acquire nuclear weapons one day. The nightmare of Israel.

On January 9, Mike Pompeo made a tour of the Middle East, visiting Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Kuwait. The Warsaw Summit is the next stage in strengthening Israel’s relations with Arab countries. The last time representatives of Israel and moderate Arab countries met in the early 90s in Madrid. If the representatives of the Arab League and Netanyahu shake hands with each other in Warsaw, this will be a historic event.

Summit in Warsaw for the United States - a review of the allies in the anti-Iranian coalition. It is noteworthy that it passes two days after the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. The first goal of Americans is propaganda. Kill the informational agenda of a key holiday for the regime in Tehran. The second is related to the April elections in the Knesset. Increased pressure on Iran on the hand of Netanyahu. Washington continues the strategic line to create a broad anti-Iranian coalition, squeezing Iran out of Syria and attempts to change the regime in Tehran. Plus, negotiations are underway to create an "Arab NATO."

Will Trump be able to unite the Arabs and Europe against Iran?

The Jamal Khashoggi case and the Palestinian problem will impede the implementation of the first task. Advocate for exposing Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Qatar refused to go to Warsaw. There will be no ministers from Lebanon and Iraq who maintain close relations with Iran, as well as Algeria and Palestine. Egypt is skeptical about the idea of an “Arab NATO”.

In Europe, the US is no better

Germany, France and Britain defend a nuclear deal with Iran, resist sanctions and create a mechanism to trade oil with Iran, bypassing the dollar Instruments in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX). At the same time, Paris, Berlin and London share the position of Trump on Tehran’s regional threat and oppose the Iranian ballistic missile program. This does not mean that the EU, to the detriment of its financial and economic interests, will side with Trump, but it may, at a certain point, under the threat of US sanctions, compromise and modify the "nuclear deal."

The Warsaw Summit could be the starting point for creating a fragile Euro-American consensus against Iran, potentially completely depriving Iran of the minimal benefits from a nuclear deal.

The outcome of the negotiations depends on the willingness of the United States to compromise. If Pence and Pompeo act clumsily and seek anti-Iranian sanctions from the EU, then this could have the opposite effect.