Who is behind the US Hybrid war in Armenia?

In Armenia, the confrontation continues between the security forces and nationalists who seized the police station in Yerevan's Erebuni district. The deputy head of police, Major-General Vardan Yeghiazaryan and Deputy Colonel Valery Osipyan, Chief of Yerevan Police, are being held as hostages. Intelligence agencies are in talks with the attackers. However, the possibility of storming of the building has also not been excluded.

The attackers are obviously counting on the support of the crowd. During the storming of the police station, they killed one police officer and can now hope to get away with it only if they can rekindle a revolutionary conflagration. Perhaps the attack was intended for this. Supporters of the militants have tried to organize a breakthrough crowd to connect with the bandits and initiate a "revolution." The main demand of the militants and their supporters is the removal from power of the incumbent president, Serge Sargsyan, and the release of their leader Jirayr Sefilian, and a number of other prisoners. Otherwise, they promise to start an armed uprising throughout the country. "We have captured a major police base in Yerevan and control the block of Erebuni", they claimed in their statement.

Armenian special services have not yet resolved to storm the occupied station, not just because of the good training of the militants - they are veterans of the Karabakh war. Eliminating veterans, who don the halo of war heroes, and supporters of the hero of the Karabakh war, Jirair Sefilian, can delegitimize the government. In social networks, there is already a campaign glorify gangsters. In the case of elimination, they can become those "martyrs" who inspire others to action.

It is necessary to pay close attention to the various characters who support the organizers of an armed attack, and who engage in protest actions in support.

Jirair Seiflian is a native of Lebanon who arrived in Armenia to take part in the Karabakh war in the early 1990’s. He has experience from fighting in Lebanon. In Karabakh, he became one of the most famous military leaders and enjoys the support of the Armenian diaspora and war veterans of Karabakh. He is harshly critical of Yerevan's position on the Karabakh issue. Seiflian calls for the resumption of hostilities against Azerbaijan after the April 2016 war. On June 20th, 2016, he was arrested on suspicion of smuggling and possessing weapons.

Jirair Seiflian

Sefilian created "The Constituent Parliament”, the radical opposition organization. In 2015, he joined the board of the opposition campaign "New Armenia" which attempted a color revolution using as a pretext that the authorities had initiated a referendum on transitioning to a parliamentary form of government. He repeatedly criticized Russia, accusing it of support for Azerbaijan. Sefilian belongs to the extremist wing of the Armenian nationalist party Dashnaktsutiun, and has vast experience in terrorist activity.

The group which tried to support militants was led by coordinators of the initiative called Arise Armenia, Andrias Ghukasyan and David Sanasaryan. Previously, they expressed their support of the closure of the Russian base in Gyumri and held protests against Armenia's joining the Customs Union and the EAEC.

Andrias Ghukasyan is a liberal activist. In 2015, he became one of the organizers of the movement "Get up Armenia", which supported the "Electric Yerevan" protests in Yerevan last year. He also opposes defense cooperation with Russia.

Andrias Ghukasyan

David Sanasaryan is a graduate of the School of Advanced International Studies, Paul Nitze (SAIS, located in Washington, DC) at Johns Hopkins University, and holds the position of "Heritage" party spokesperson opposing Armenia's membership in the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. Sansaryan led anti-Russian protests  many times, and together with other activists of the "Heritage" Party he held rallies in support of the Maidan in Ukraine in 2014. He coordinated one of Soros Fund programs in Armenia.

David Sanasaryan

The leader the  "Heritage" party is the first Foreign Minister of independent Armenia, Raffi Hovannisian. He was born in the United States and lived in the US for almost 30 years. He formally abandoned his US citizenship in 2003. In the 1990's he was the Minister of Foreign Affairs in the pro-American government of President Levon Ter-Petrosian. Hovhannisyan, now heads an opposition structure called the "New Armenia", which includes field commander Jirayr Sefilian.

Raffi Hovannisian

All of the above characters actively participated in the protests last summer (Electric Yerevan under the anti-Russian slogans). In addition, they also organized protests in December 2015 against turning Armenia into a parliamentary republic.

All these people are united by their hostility to Russia, cooperation with the West, and an active nationalist rhetoric. They boost the process of recognition of Nagorno Karabakh's independence by Armenia, and Hovhannisyan and Sefilyan want to start a new war with Azerbaijan. It is obvious that the escalation of the conflict is exactly what the US is interested in. As we wrote earlier:

These events in Armenia  are part of the strategy of hybrid war used by the US against Continentalist forces, and primarily against Russia. The goal is changing the government or policies of the Armenian authorities to ones less pliable for Russia. Currently, the Russian government is trying to find a formula of compromise between Armenia and Azerbaijan in order to ensure long-term peace, which naturally requires concessions from the Armenian side. The United States, in turn, is using its agents of influence in Armenia and Azerbaijan in order to derail the peace process and kindle war, which would naturally draw in Russia and Turkey.

The activities of armed radicals are a natural element of this hybrid war strategy. The recent attack has multiple objectives: exerting pressure on the Armenian leadership with an eye on preventing compromise on Karabakh; creating a pole of attraction for radical discontent elements which will then be used in a color revolution; using military operations by paramilitary formations to demonstrate the weakness of the government and its inability to control the situation; and strengthening overall opposition sentiment.
The ultimate goal is the incitement of war in Karabakh, a change of government, the withdrawal of the Russian military base from Gumri.

At the same time US influence in the Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia is strong enough

Armenia, despite the membership of the CSTO and the Customs Union, in many areas behaves independently of Russia, including using the resources of the Armenian lobby in the United States. At the same time, the interaction with the US has the reverse effect. These same structures can become agents of American interests. It is significant that the US, unlike Russia, formally allocates financial assistance to Nagorno-Karabakh every year in the amount of several million dollars. The American influence in Nagorno-Karabakh is underestimated by Russia.

In May the same forces: MPs from the pro-Western liberal "Heritage" party and the pro-Western block, "Armenian National Congress" of the former president Levon Ter-Petrosian offered to Armenia that they would recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state, that probably would have stalled the peace process and opened the way to new war

The draft document was then offered by MPs Zaruhi Postanjyan and Hrant Bagratyan. Bagratyan - liberal economist and former prime- minister of Ter-Petrosyan. In 1995 he was voted Man of the Year by the American Biographical Institute, in 1998 he was voted man of the UN Millennium and the Cambridge Biographical Center.

Hrant Bagratyan

It is possible that in an escalation of tensions in Armenia will engage other elements of the pro-American network, from nationalists to sixth columns in the government of Armenia. Also, agents of US influence in Azerbaijan will undertake certain provocation in the near future to even more complicate the situation in Armenia.

Using Russian obligations to its ally - Armenia - the United States through its network on the one hand seeks to disrupt the peace process in the South Caucasus, and to draw Russia into the war, on the other hand, to use the wave of discontent with Russian peace strategy and incitement to nationalist hysteria initiate a new color revolution, in order to take Armenia out of Russia's influence. Thus a situation of a Zugzwang  is created for Russia - any move leading to a deterioration of the position of the player.