US ELECTIONS: UNITED LANDS AND THEIR IDEOLOGIES

The electoral map of the United States in 2020, with a certain turn of events, may become a map of the borders of the two opposing forces in the coming Civil War.

American elections and their ideology

Due to the fact that the 2020 election in the U.S. is an event of great importance, on which will depend no less than the fate of the world order, the balance of power in each of the States and even the personality of governors, mayors of major cities and the profile of the forces influencing the decision of the electorate are not just local, but global. 

The choice between Trump and Biden this time is a choice of two alternatives for the future, both for the United States and the world. Further developments will depend on the decision of the electors of each of the States:

Either the agonizing globalists represented by Biden will continue desperate attempts to maintain power in the U.S. and partly in the world, which will almost certainly lead to an escalation of regional conflicts, and, most likely, to World War III,

Either the American patriots, under leadership of Trump, will prevail, and then the United States will become - more gently and organically, bypassing the catastrophic upheavals - one of the poles of the multipolar world (albeit the most powerful and influential).

In the first case, America will finally lose itself, retaining the illusion of world hegemony; in the second case, it will preserve itself and maybe even strengthen, but will give up globalist claims.

And all this will be decided not just by American voters, but by the States themselves - as independent political units, again like during the American War of Independence or the 1861-1865 Civil War, endowed with the freedom of choice.

What is at stake right now is not only US destiny, but also the future of the whole world.

A real struggle of ideologies is unfolding between the "red" (Republican) and "blue" (Democratic) states. At the same time, it has already reached such an intensity that both parties - Trump and Biden - have deliberately announced that they will not recognize the enemy's victory in the presidential race, accusing him of election fraud. Since Trump and Biden are roughly equal, both will rely on about half of American society. This means that the geopolitical confrontation between the Republican Land Power and the Democratic Sea Power in the United States will continue after November 3, 2020. Thus, the role of each of the U.S. is growing rapidly. 

At the limit, if the conflict between two geopolitical vectors - two American ideologies - develops into a hot phase of a new Civil War, which cannot be ruled out either, the structure of the United States, its leaders, their benchmarks and their ideological, political and even personal characteristics may turn out to be decisive in a certain situation, especially taking into account the approximate equality of forces. When the scales are more or less in balance, everything depends on the minimum factor. 

Therefore, an overview of the political structures of each of the states and the figure of their governors takes on a completely different meaning in the current situation. The stakes increase many times, and, accordingly, the meaning of every detail, nuance or feature of the political and even personal biography.

It should be remembered that the federal system of the United States recognizes the sovereignty of each of the states - for this reason, each of them has its own legislation, where there are both common and quite original points and regulations, laws and rules. After all, what we call "State" in English simply means country. Thus, the United States, strictly speaking, is the "United countries of America". 

And it is now more than ever - or almost never in American history - that this circumstance becomes decisive. When a country is divided, and this is exactly what happens in the United States today, the decision depends not so much on the central government, but on each of the States individually. And if a society is divided along ideological and geopolitical lines, the fact that a certain State is "red" or "blue" means not only "republican" or "democratic", but also "patriotic" or "liberal", "conservative" or "progressive", "Land Power" or "Sea Power". 

Thus, the electoral map of the United States in 2020, under certain conditions, may become a map of two opposing forces in the coming Civil War.

Voters and expectations

The November general elections in the United States are also indirect elections. Electors vote on the Electoral College list; they then directly elect a president and vice president.

If no candidate receives the minimum 270 votes required to win an election, the US House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the highest number of votes, and the United States Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the highest number of votes. The election will be held in conjunction with elections to the House of Representatives, the Senate, and various state and local government elections.

The Electoral College consists of 538 electors. Strictly formally, their task is to vote according to the will of voters. If an elector votes against the will of voters, he will be fined.

Accordingly, the number of electors from the State is especially important. The largest number of electors (55 people) falls on California as the most populated state. And California is a stronghold of Democrats.

Interestingly, progressionist Democrats are increasingly stating the need to abolish the outdated Electoral College. Their opponents, the Republican Conservatives from the U.S. backwoods, on the contrary, believe that this instrument is extremely important to make their voices heard. After all, if it were not for the Electoral College, the U.S. president would have long been chosen by the major cities on the two coasts, where the Democrats traditionally vote for them and where most of the U.S. population lives. 

The Electoral College is one of the pillars of American federalism, which reduces the probability that the President will be a person elected by the population of only a few states.

The Electoral College is so important in order to represent the will of real Americans, says the inscription on the map with the results of the presidential election in 2016.

The map speaks for itself - a sea of red "Republican" color with islands of Democratic "blue". If there were no electors, the fate of the country would be decided by the population of these islands, because in 2016, Hillary Clinton has gained more votes in this Democratic archipelago than Donald Trump.

Here are the forecasts and expectations for the presidential elections (according to an interactive web site "270 to win" on 13.10.2020):

For Trump, here is a pessimistic forecast - CNN style and so. That is why it is far from being a fact that these expectations will come true - perhaps, deep America will once again show the USA a surprise.

Based on this expectation map, the states can be divided into possibly "blue" (Democratic), "red" (Republican) and "swing" - the latest outcome is currently uncertain, and this is the main intrigue.

Blue States: Liberal states (Sea Power/Costal zone)

Blue states are those that are consistently dominated by Democrats - governors, mayors, senators and are the majority in the House of Representatives (D* - Democrats, R* - Republicans). The portraits of Democrat governors are in some ways similar: usually they are supporters of liberal decisions (support of LGBT, legalization of marijuana, skeptics of the Second Amendment) and Trump's haters. 

Of course, election results can change preliminary expectations and "paint" a number of "blue" states into "red", and vice versa.

1) WA - Washington

Senators: Patty Murray (D), Maria Cantwell (D)

Governor: Jay Robert Inslee. As governor, Inslee focused on climate change, education and drug policy reform. He gained national attention through criticism of President Donald Trump. Inslee, State Attorney General Bob Ferguson and State Attorney General Noah Purcell sued the Trump administration for Executive Order 13769, which suspended travel for 90 days from seven Muslim-majority countries and imposed a total ban on Syrian refugees entering the United States. Inslee participated in recent Democratic primaries, but exited the struggle as early as August 2019.

2) DC - Washington D.C.

Senators: Eleanor Holmes (D)

DC Council (majority): Democrats

Mayor: Muriel Bowser.

Despite the fact that the U.S. capital is governed by a black woman from the Democratic Party, in the District of Columbia, the death rate from COVID-19 among blacks is 5.9 times higher than among whites. The U.S. capital city is well ahead of all other major cities in the country by this indicator of racial inequality (lack of access to quality medicine for African Americans). The number of murders in the district has also increased under Bowser. She renamed part of one of the streets "Black Lives Matter Plaza". But in fact, BLM leaders did not appreciate this act and said that it distracts attention from real political changes and called on the mayor to disarm the police. It is, in its own words, "a mayor who hates guns".

3) OR - Oregon

Senators: Ron Wyden (D), Jeff Merkley (D)

Governor: Kate Brown. For her the main thing to be proud of is that she is a bisexual woman. She became the first openly LGBT person elected secretary of a state of US state. In 2016, she became the first openly LGBT woman elected governor of State in the United States.

4) CA - California

Senators: Diana Feinstein (D), Kamala Harris (D)

Governor: Gavin Newsom. It seems he`s in politics thanks to his family connections, he is the son of a judge and an otter defender, the aunt Newsom married Ron Pelosi, brother-in-law of Nancy Pelosi. In 2004, Newsom caught the nation's attention when he ordered a San Francisco County clerk to grant a marriage permit to same-sex couples in violation of state law. He is an active marijuana legalization lobbyist. He called California "nation state". He has also achieved a special treatment for transgender people in prison: California's convicted perverts can choose their cell mates and decide whether to shorten their sentence in society for their biological or opposite sex.

5) NV - Nevada

Senators: Catherine Cortez Masto (D), Jacky Rosen (D)

Governor: Steve Sisolak. Engaged in business, had many scandals. He is in a bad relationship With Trump - Trump tweeted that federal agencies are closely watching the democratic governors of Nevada and New Mexico, hinting at falsification. Sisolak shares these feelings with the President.

6) NM - New Mexico

Senators: Tom Udall (D), Martin Heinrich (D)

Governor: Michelle Lujan Grisham. She is credited with being the first Latino female democrat to be elected state governor in U.S. history. She legalized abortion, and she is against weapons.

The only thing she has in common with Trump is her love for Israel.

7) CO - Colorado

Senators: Michael Bennett (D), Cory Gardner (D)

Governor: Jared Polis, in 2018 he became the first openly gay and second openly LGBT (after Kate Brown) governor of a U.S. state. He is also the first Jew to be elected governor of Colorado. 

In geopolitical terms he is classical Democrat, and the only good thing is that he was against the intervention in Iraq. Otherwise he shares Barack Obama`s political agenda. He is a marijuana legalizer.

8) ME - Maine.

Senators: Susan Collins (R), Angus King (independent)

Governor: Janet Mills. She stands for LGBT, and shares typical Democrat ecology-friendly agenda.

9) NY - New York

Senators: Chuck Schumer (D), Kirsten Hillbrand (D)

Governor: Andrew Cuomo

He is known for his quarrels with Trump over the issue of Covid measures. He is Killer of elder people: On March 25, 2020, Cuomo and the New York State Department of Health issued an advisory opinion requiring hospitalization in nursing homes for patients with a positive coronavirus test. The order was cancelled on May 10 after extensive criticism from medical experts. But by that time, up to 4500 infected COVID-19 patients had been sent to New York State nursing homes. As of June 2020, more than 6000 residents of New York State nursing homes had died of Covid. The rest of Cuomo`s interests are Democratic classic: LGBT and gay marriage, against weapons, for marijuana. He thinks that America was not great. "We're not gonna make America great again. It was never that great. We have not reached greatness. We will reach greatness when every American is fully engaged." And Cuomo is pro-Israel: "If you boycott Israel, New York State will boycott you."

10) IL - Illinois

Senators: Dick Durbin (D), Tammy Duckforth (D)

Governor: J.B. Pritzker. Businessman, one of the richest politicians, member of the Pritzker family, which owns the Hyatt hotel chain. Pritzker was the national co-chairman of the Hillary Clinton campaign. He supported President Barack Obama in the 2008 general elections.

11) HI - Hawaii

Senators: Brian Schatz (D), Mazie Hirono (D)

It is important to note that Tulsi Gabbart is a member of the House of Representatives (Democrat, but a supporter of anti-globalist views in the spirit of Trumpism).

Governor: David Ige. He had conflicts with Trump over the climate issue (Trump withdrew from the agreement, and Ige, in spite of him, established environmental regulations on emissions within the state). Same steps against LGBT discrimination. Although, in general, it looks even good compared to other Democratic governors.

12) RI - Rhode Island

Senators: Jack Reed (D), Sherlon Whitehouse (D)

Governor: Gina Raimondo. Venture capitalist, many scandals with bureaucracy and corruption. Raimondo was appointed national co-chair of the Bloomberg campaign. But less than a month later, Bloomberg left the race and supported former vice president Joe Biden. On the same day, Raimondo also supported Biden.

13) CT - Connecticut

Senators: Richard Blumenthal (D), Chris Murphy (D) 

Governor: Ned Lamont. Not very popular among the people, active, but nothing special. Unlike many people, he took Covid and mask-regime more seriously.

14) NJ - New Jersey

Senators: Bob Menendez (D), Cory Booker (D)

Governor: Phil Murphy. For many years he worked for Goldman Sachs. In the Obama administration, Murphy served as the Ambassador of the United States of America to Germany from 2009 to 2013. Murphy supported Hillary Clinton in the Democrats Primaries 2016 and raised funds for her. Now the main criticism of Trump is related to the underestimation of Covid. He said he would have taken more action in the state if Trump had immediately recognized the danger of the virus.

15) DE - Delaware

Senators: Tom Carper (D), Chris Coons (D)

Governor: John Carney. In 2017 he had a discrepancy with Trump on health financing, in 2020 on Floyd's protests.

16) VT - Vermont

Senators: Patrice Leahy (D), Bernie Sanders (independent)

Governor: Phil Scott is against Trump. As a candidate and governor, he is known to "adopt moderate and sometimes even liberal politics"; his views can be described as "fiscally conservative but socially liberal". Scott supported the investigation into the impeachment of Donald Trump. Scott advocates pro-choice and supports same-sex marriage and abortion against Trump's migration policy. He is for marijuana.

17) MN - Minnesota

Senators: Amy Klobushar (D), Tina Smith (D)

Governor: Tim Walz. For marijuana, family planning, LGBT. On July 21, following the Floyd case, the Minnesota legislature passed a major police reform law. The new compromise law includes a limited ban on police deterrence.

Red states: Conservative States (Land Power/Heartland) 

And here's what the powerful elites of the "red" (traditionally Republican) states look like. Again, some of them may support Democrats, but experts tend to consider them stable in their preferences.

It is important that some politicians and officials from the Republican Party are disposed against Trump.

1) ID - Idaho

Senators: Mike Crapo (R), Jim Risch (R)

Governor: Brad Little stands for Trump. He is kind of the American old school cowboy. He is accused of disliking transgender people, because he forbids transgender women and girls to play sports according to their gender, as well as to change the wilfully gender in the documents.

2) UT - Utah

Senators: Mike Lee (R), Mitt Romney (R)

Governor: Gary Herbert is for Trump. The next governor elections will be held in Utah on November 3. However, Herbert will not be nominated, voting in favor of his colleague Spencer Cox (who is a liberal Republican and looks more like a Democrat in criticism of Trump).

3) WY - Wyoming

Senators: Mike Enzie (R), John Barrasso (R)

Governor: Mark Gordon is for Trump.

4) ND - North Dakota

Senators: John Hoeven (R), Kevin Cramer (R)

Governor: Doug Burgum. There are no bright anti-trumpist attacks, he is calm. But recently there was a scandal in the Republican Party on LGBT issues. He criticized the resolution against the LGBT, adopted by hundreds of delegates to his party, calling it offensive and divisive. The resolution said that many LGBT actions are unhealthy and dangerous, sometimes endangering or shortening lives and sometimes infecting society as a whole. 

5) SD - South Dakota

Senators: John Thune (R), Mike Rounds (R)

Governor: Kristi Noem. A beautiful woman, so, of course, she is for Trump. Against abortion. Against the dependence of the United States on foreign oil. In international politics she is against Obama.  She supported Trump in the issue of immigrants.

6) TX - Texas

Senators: John Cornyn (R), Ted Cruz (R)

Governor: Greg Abbott is for Trump. The representative of traditional America. A disabled person (was paralyzed by a tree fallen on him while jogging), which does not prevent him from being a very active politician. Abbott filed thirty-one lawsuits against the Obama administration. When asked what his work represented, Abbott said: "I go into the office in the morning. I sue Barack Obama, and then I go home." Abbott filed a lawsuit against the Environmental Protection Agency, the Ministry of Health and Social Services (including the Obamacare challenges) and the Ministry of Education, among many others. The lawsuits included carbon standards, health care reform, transgender rights and others. Abbott filed a lawsuit against Sony. Texas was the first state in the country to sue Sony BMG for illegal spysoft. He was trolling New York's governor Cuomo, sending out invitations to New Yorkers, owners of guns, to Texas, where they are welcome (as Cuomo is sharply against guns, which annoys many Americans). He proposed a law against sexual toys in Texas. He is against LGBT people because it does not encourage childbearing.

7) OK - Oklahoma

Jim Inhofe (R), James Lankford (R)

Governor: Kevin Stitt is for Trump. He is from the Cherokee tribe. For a long time he denied the seriousness of Covid, as Trump.

8) MS - Missouri

Senators: Roger Wicker (R), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Governor: Tate Reeves is for Trump. In his youth, he belonged to a fraternity of students who used the symbols of the Confederation of the Southern States. He was a financial analyst. He was also a Covid denier who called to trust only in the power of prayer.

9) AL - Alabama

Senators: Richard Shelby (R), Doug Jones (D)

Governor: Kay Ivey - for Trump.

Nice old woman, in excellent relationship with Trump.

10) TN - Tennessee

Senators: Lamar Alexander (R), Marsha Blackburn (R)

Governor: Bill Lee is for Trump. Businessman. Against abortion. He`s troll - proposed the establishment of Nathan Forrest Day (one of the founders of the Ku Klux Klan). Lee announced that he would sign a law guaranteeing that taxpayers would continue to fund religious foster care and adoption agencies, even if they exclude LGBT families and others based on religious beliefs. Amazon does not support this law and criticizes Lee.

11) WV - West Virginia

Senators: Joe Manchin (D), Shelley Moore Capito (R)

Governor: Jim Justice is for Trump, a Republican, but he was a Democrat from 2015 to 2017.  He is the heir to the coal business. In many ways he has liberal views (LGBT, etc.).

12) IN - Indiana

Senators: Todd Young (R), Mike Braun (R)

Governor: Eric Holcomb. Republican. Replaced in 2017 as Governor of Indiana Mike Pence, who became Vice President of the United States. Does not have any special qualities.

13) SC - South Carolina

Senators: Lindsay Graham (R), Tim Scott (R)

Governor: Henry McMaster. During the 2016 presidential campaign, McMaster was an early and ardent supporter of Donald Trump. Pro-gun. In 2018, McMaster offered to send troops from the South Carolina National Guard to assist Texas in its fight against illegal immigration and drug trafficking.

14) KS - Kansas

Senators: Pat Roberts (R), Jerry Moran (R)

Governor: Laura Kelly. She criticized Trump for Covid measures. Although the relationship is warm, Trump himself praised Kelly for quick and timely anti-virus measures.

15) MO - Missouri

Senators: Roy Blunt (R), Josh Howley (R)

Governor: Mike Parson is for Trump. Parson supported Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election and Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.

16) AR - Arkansas

Senators: John Boozman (R), Tom Cotton (R)

Governor: Asa Hutchinson supports Trump's policy, although he is critical of the style of some of his statements.

17) AK - Alaska

Senators: Lisa Murkowski (R), Dan Sullivan (R)

Governor: Mike Dunleavy is for Trump, supporting his initiatives.

Oscillating States: between Land and Sea (electoral Rimland)

1)MA - Massachusetts

Senators: Elizabeth Warren (D), Ed Markey (D)

House of Representatives (majority): Democrats

Governor: Republican Charlie Baker. Although he is a Republican, in many ways he is against Trump. For example, he actively advocates for abortion, criticizing Trump's initiative to separate abortion from medical clinics. One of the few respirators who was against Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. He supported the impeachment of Trump.

2) MD - Maryland

Senators: Ben Cardin (D), Chris Van Hollen (D)

House of Representatives (majority): Democrats

Governor: Republican Larry Hogan. He criticizes Trump. He thinks that the moderates (i.e. those who coincide in their views with the Democrats) will soon have a chance to reorient the Republican party, which has disguised itself strongly as a "right wing".

3) MT - Montana

Senators: John Tester (D), Steve Daines (R)

House of Representatives (majority): Republicans

Governor: Steve Bullock is a Democrat. Against Trump. Bullock supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 general election, but disagreed with Clinton's opposition to the coal industry because it is an important industry in Montana. He did not participate in the 2016 Democratic National Convention, citing his duties as governor. Bullock remained neutral during the presidential primaries of the 2016 Democratic Party. On April 5, 2018, Bullock refused to deploy National Guard troops from Montana on the Mexican border, just at the whim of the president on morning Twitter. In June 2018, he made a strong protest against the Trump administration's policy of family separation at the Mexican border. Bullock supports same-sex marriages. He launched a campaign against Trump in Montana.

4) LA - Louisiana

Senators: Bill Cassidy (R), John Kennedy (R)

House of Representatives (majority): Republicans

Governor: John Bel Edwards is a Democrat. Edwards was Obama's delegate to the 2012 National Democratic Congress. Edwards supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. For LGBT. Although he is against abortion.

5) AZ - Arizona

Senators Kirsten Sinema (D), Martha McSally (R)

House of Representatives: Republicans by 1 more than Democrats

Governor: Doug Ducey is a Republican. Pro-Trump. Against Obamacare. He opposed the demolition of monuments to the Confederates in Arizona. At first, he was against the LGBT, then humbled himself. He was criticized for weak measures on Covid.

6) KY - Kentucky

Senators: Mitch McConnell (R), Rand Paul (R)

House of Representatives (majority): Republicans

Governor: Andy Beshear is a Democrat, for LGBT. He had conflicts with Trump on the issue of receiving migrants and on Covid. In general, he is not for Trump.

7) PA - Pennsylvania

Senators: Bob Casey Jr. (D), Pat Toomey (R)

In the Senate and the State House of Representatives, the Republicans have a majority.

Governor: Tom Wolf is a Democrat. Trump's critic in questions of health care. He criticized Trump for attempting public events during Covid.

8) OH - Ohio

Senators: Sherrod Brown (D), Rob Portman (R)

Governor: Mike DeWine is a Republican, for Trump. He is strict in Covid measures. Against abortion and LGBT marriage. And against weapons.

9) IA - Iowa

Senators: Chuck Grassley (R), Joni Ernst (R)

House of Representatives (majority): Republicans

Governor: Kim Reynolds is Republican, against abortion. In 2018 Reynolds described same-sex marriage as a "settled" issue and stated that she did not consider herself obliged to follow the Iowa Republican Party platform provisions prohibiting same-sex marriage. Through her judicial appointments, Reynolds has moved the Iowa Supreme Court into a conservative direction. Sceptical about Covid.

10) VA - Virginia

Senators: Mark Warner (D), Tim Kaine (D)

House of Representatives (majority): Democrats

Governor: Ralph Northam is a Democrat. Roughly against Trump on migration issues.  He supports LGBT, transgender rights, etc. He said when he listened to Donald Trump he found him as a narcissistic maniac. With the election approaching, Northam said that If Donald Trump is helping Virginia, he`d work with him.

11) NC - North Carolina

Senators: Richard Burr (R), Thom Tillis (R)

House of Representatives (majority): Republicans 

Governor: Roy Cooper is a Democrat and Trump critic. His candidacy was supported by Clinton.

12) GA - Georgia

Senators: David Perdue (R), Kelly Loeffer (R)

House of Representatives (majority): Republicans 

Governor: Brian Kemp is a Republican. He is sceptical about Covid. In general, all guidelines for Trump.

13) FL - Florida

Senators: Marco Rubio (R), Rick Scott (R)

Governor: Ron DeSantis. He wrote a book criticizing US President Barack Obama's policies and was an ally of President Donald Trump. DeSantis often criticized the investigation by Robert Mueller's special council on Russia's interference in the 2016 presidential election. Against abortion, marijuana, etc. Pro-Israel, against Cuba and Iran.

14) MI - Michigan

Senators: Debbie Stabnau (D), Gary Peters (D)

House of Representatives: Republicans are one more than Democrats.

Governor: Gretchen Whitmer is a Democrat. Against Trump. In February 2020, she was elected to give a democratic response to President Donald Trump's address on the state of affairs in 2020. Democrats hoped that Whitmer's choice would increase their chances of winning the state.

15) NE - Nebraska

Senators: Deb Fischer (R), Ben Sasse (R)

House of Representatives (majority): Republicans

Governor: Pete Ricketts is a Republican. Pro-Trump. Ricketts criticized the impeachment of Donald Trump. Against marijuana, for the death penalty.

16) NH - New Hampshire

House of Representatives (majority): Democrats

Senators: Jeanne Shaheen (D), Maggie Hassan (D)

Governor: Chris Sununu is a Republican. Moderate Republican, he often has middle opinion: for example, is not against abortion rights, but does not support the funding of abortion. On migration, too: against the Trump`s tough initiatives, but also against the resettlement of Syrian refugees in the United States. For LGBT people, but against marijuana.

Conspiracy of 11 liberals

It should be noted that 11 democratic governors have already conspired against Trump. Their coalition condemned the incumbent president as a "threat to democracy", an organizer of "bulletin fraud" and a "racist".

This coalition of 11 governors includes 

• progressive bisexual Kate Brown (Oregon), 
• a fierce opponent of Trump Jay Inslee (Washington State), 
• Gavin Newsome (California), a supporter of drug legalization and a sexual minority rights activist, 
• Phil Murphy (New Jersey), 
•  Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), 
• Tony Evers (Wisconsin), 
• Tim Walz (Minnesota), 
•  Ralph Northam (Virginia), 
• John Carney (Delaware), 
• Steve Sisolak (Nevada) and
•  Convinced abortion advocate and advocate for restrictive weapons laws, Michelle Lujan Grisham (New Mexico).

Split among the "red"

While Democrats are generally unanimous towards Trump, which is expressed in his unambiguous rejection, Republicans, Trump's party comrades, are more diverse. 

Thus ideological opponents of Trump are those Republicans who are influenced by neoconservatives, "right globalists" and former Trotskyists, who have a radically different agenda from Trump's. They represent not Heartland, but still the same "Sea power", the same liberals - however, they clothe their hegemonic and globalist strategies in openly imperialist language. The neocons themselves, led by Bill Cristol, openly oppose Trump, but their influence also extends to those Republicans who seem to be loyal to Trump. 

Another category of "fifth column" among the "red" States is represented by those politicians who were indirectly supported by globalist circles - Wall Street, the Federal Reserve or CFR structures, promising for betrayal Trump pardon after the arrival of Biden and a certain reward in material terms.

Finally, the weakest link is those Republicans who had a quarrel with Trump for some secondary reason - internal disagreements inside party. 

Thus, one can notice a certain split within American Heartland itself.

Social groups and their ideological markers

Social layers should be added to this map. Democrats are favored not only by the population of the "blue" States ("liberal states"), but in general by the inhabitants of large metropolitan areas, the African-American population and a large part of Latin Americans who are convinced by the democratic propaganda that Trump is supported by "racists" and supporters of "racial inequality". It is also in this urban environment that feminist sentiments are prevalent and most LGBT+ supporters are concentrated. The post-humanists, technocrats and post-modernists are also ideologically adjoining them.

In general, urban youth also tend to be more Democrats and extreme left-wing ideology (in the spirit of Bernie Sanders), Trump denies, but usually does not play a significant role in elections. However, it is the youth urban environment - especially in its extremist wing (terrorist groups of "antifascists", BLM, left-wing anarchists, etc.) - that is at the forefront of urban unrest, being an important force of the "color revolution" that erupted in the U.S. on the eve of the election, not without direct support from the Democrats ("blue").

On the other hand, "Native America", in addition to the "red states" itself, sympathizes with Trump. This is true for religious groups - primarily Evangelicals, Mormons, Baptists and other Protestants. They are also adjoined by a layer of farmers and residents of small towns.

A separate category of support for American Heartland is represented by strong supporters of the Second Amendment of the Constitution, who are aware of the threat posed by Democrats to this crucial legal position for traditional American identity. They are also joined by opponents of same-sex marriage and freedom of abortion, representatives of the pro-life movement.

In general, we can say that the conservative America, or more precisely "pale conservative", is going to vote for Trump, because neo-Conservatives belong to the camp of globalists.

Thus, we can add a social dimension to the geographical contours of electoral geopolitics, which complements the picture of polarization of American society by ideological factors. Undoubtedly, this will affect both the elections on November 3, and the events that will inevitably follow - up to the probable outbreak of a full-fledged civil war.

Soil for the "color revolution"

To understand what will happen after November 3, let's look at how the American electoral process works in general. The U.S. differs from most other democracies in that it does not have an independent election commission to certify the final count of votes. It's up to the states to decide. And a lot depends on the governors.

Roughly speaking, every state has an electoral team from every party. If a state wins, for example, a republican candidate, the state governor must sign a certificate certifying the eligibility of his team of electors. Without the governor's signature and the state seal, the electors' credentials are invalid. All but two states have a "winner takes all" policy. The states of Maine and Nebraska have slightly more complicated principles of voter distribution.

Voters will have to vote in their states on December 14. Together in the federal scale, they never gather. It will not be until January 6, when Congress (both chambers), chaired by the vice president of the United States, will hold its final count of votes for each state. Only then will the winner of the U.S. presidential election be officially announced.

Previously, all of these details were considered less important, for the country knew the winner's name the night after the popular vote. But this election is special.

In addition to the intense confrontation between Republicans and Democrats, another factor intervened - coronavirus. Under the pretext of fighting the epidemic, Democrat governors in their states actively impose voting by mail. 

Throwing in ballots in this way, which in the absence of a centralized election commission and can not be checked, is easy. That is why Trump has long called these plans of the Democrats an attempt to create chaos.

It should also be taken into account that supporters of the Democrats support coronavirus restrictions, but supporters of Trump (usually) do not. As a result, the districts are likely to come Trump, and vote by mail will be supporters of Biden. However, the data from the polling stations will be known almost immediately, as Americans are used to it, and counting of votes received by mail can last at least a week. 

As a result, it is likely that on election night Donald Trump will have every reason to declare his victory. Democrats, however, will not recognize it while waiting for the "mail" ballots to be counted. Responding, the Republicans will accuse them of manipulation and stuffing. 

As a result, not only will the tension accumulated during the election campaign not be relieved on the first day after voting, but it will reach critical values.

This will create a fertile ground for Democrats to use the technology of color revolutions - hot crowds will start rioting against Trump's "usurper" in order to influence the counting of votes in the "right" direction or force him to admit his defeat. Postal voting in the decentralized U.S. electoral system favors this scenario in the current situation. It is no coincidence that those who have experience in organizing "color revolutions" - neocons, former Obama administration officials and George Soros - gathered in the camp of Trump opponents.

Recall that these people, united in The Transition Integrity Project (TIP) in August, presented several scenarios of Trump's shift during the "color revolution".

As for George Soros, not only left-handed radicals from the "anti-face" and Black Lives Matter are fed to him. Since 2015, his structures have massively sponsored the right people in the election of district prosecutors. In this year's protests, such prosecutors have already proven themselves by indulging and protecting the belligerents. 

At the right time, this network and other agents of influence, including at the state level, can paralyze law enforcement agencies.

Cancellation of elections and lawfare

On the other hand, the Democrats themselves do not rule out another scenario. In a number of states, including key, "hesitant" ones such as Pennsylvania, for example, the governor is a democrat, and the legislative assembly is controlled by Republicans. As a result, in theory, in the face of protests, pressure on those who count the votes, and given the many doubts about the fraudulent mail-order voting, it may turn out that counting the votes will be delayed or stuck in legal disputes. 

In addition, it may happen that democratic governors certify some voter lists, while state legislatures, where controlled by Republicans, certify others. As a result, it will be impossible to count the votes of electors and then the president will have to be elected by the House of Representatives. 

Now Democrats have a majority there, but from next year the composition will be renewed, because on November 3 a significant part of congressmen will also be elected. At the same time the election of the president in the House of Representatives should take place according to the principle - 1 state - one vote. 

But if the composition of the House of Representatives is divided into state delegations, the Republicans, i.e. Trump, can win with a slight advantage. 

However, this way, the last time the President was elected was in 1824. Such a scenario is theoretically possible, but unlikely and more reminiscent of the intimidation of the democratic electorate that Trump is supposedly ready to "seize power" by spitting on the will of voters.

Nevertheless, the discussion of this scenario demonstrates a specific feature of the American political system: this scenario can be implemented if the law, namely the 12th Amendment to the US Constitution, is interpreted in a specific way. 

The American legal system is a very complex phenomenon, where legal precedents and interpretations of lawyers play a special role. Most U.S. politicians are educated as lawyers. The war of legal interpretations - lawfare - (similar to warfare) will create conditions for further chaos in society, where each party will rely on its own interpretation of the law, accusing a friend of violating the law. 

Trump's appointment of a new U.S. Supreme Court judge will also help. In 2000, in a controversial situation in Florida, it was the Supreme Court that gave George W. Bush the keys to the White House. Democrats are already questioning the legitimacy of the appointment of Trump's protégé Amy Coney Barrett as the new Supreme Court Judge.

Sovereignty test

All of this will create a situation of extreme confusion, where the use of traditional U.S. dispute resolution mechanisms - through legal mechanisms and the manipulation of a sophisticated system of checks and balances at the federal and state levels - will only encourage the mutual alienation of U.S. Hartland and the bulwarks of the Sea Civilization. 

It is not difficult to imagine a situation where some cities and states would recognize President Trump, and others - Biden. 

Under these circumstances, a decesionist interpretation of sovereignty in the spirit of Carl Schmitt will become relevant to the United States. Sovereign will be someone who can act independently in these exceptional circumstances. It could be Trump, if he is supported by the army and the intelligence services. But it is possible that the opposite pole will make a claim to sovereignty, establishing a liberal dictatorship.

But in both cases, this will not cure the split in American society, where neither side (and the liberals are the most fierce) is ready to recognize the victory of the other value and geopolitical pole.

A survey of 1,999 registered voters conducted by YouGov showed that almost half - 47% - do not agree with the idea that elections are likely to be fair and just. And that a little more than half - 51% - in general would disagree with the one who is legally elected president of the USA.

Besides, according to the results of the poll of 1 505 voters conducted by YouGov, 56% stated that they expected "growth of violence as a result of elections".

Another study says that most adult Americans believe the country is "on the verge" of a second civil war. Of these, 40% "fully agree" with this statement, and another 21% partially agree.