Non-Western Peace Processes For Ukraine

China confirmed on Friday that it won’t participate in the upcoming Swiss “peace talks” in Ukraine because they don’t meet “the three important elements of recognition from both Russia and Ukraine, equal participation of all parties, and fair discussion of all peace plans.” It also referenced late May’s joint declaration with Brazil on the principles for politically ending this conflict. These moves show that China rejects the anti-Russian focus of the Western-led peace process for Ukraine.

China is therefore signaling that it wants to mediate a political solution to this conflict instead, but the US is loath to allow this to happen because it doesn’t want to give its systemic rival such a grand diplomatic victory. Nevertheless, there can be no political solution whatsoever without genuine peace talks in which Russia and its peace proposals are properly represented exactly as China believes, unlike the upcoming Swiss talks. Since the latter won’t amount to anything of significance, there’s a chance for an alternative.

The aforementioned assessment is tacitly shared by the EU and even the US itself, the first of whom is reportedly exploring the possibility of inclusive Saudi-hosted talks sometime this autumn according to Bloomberg while the second’s leader plans to skip the Swiss talks to attend a Hollywood fundraiser. From the West’s perspective, it’s better for Saudi Arabia to host another peace conference sometime in the future than for China to unveil its own parallel process, though the latter can’t be ruled out.

After all, just like the West has organized pro-Ukrainian talks with the participation of some Global South states, so too could China do the same but with the intent of having them be more neutral. Those Global South states that attended the prior round of Western-organized ones would therefore likely also attend the more balanced talks that China could help organize even if they’re hosted by Brazil for instance. This could help shift the diplomatic momentum even if Ukraine and most Western states don’t participate.

By having Brazil host these talks, which has voted against Russia at the UN even after Lula’s return to power last year, the West couldn’t decline attending on the pretext that doing so would risk giving credence to a country that supposedly sides with Russia like they claim China does if it hosted them. Saudi Arabia is a wealthy petro-monarchy while Brazil is representative of the Global South as a whole, thus making the latter much more appealing of a host for the majority of the international community.

If this Sino-Brazilian parallel peace process is created, then it could ultimately become the one through which a political solution to the NATO-Russian proxy war is negotiated, or at least greatly influence the outcome. Barring some unforeseen developments, the Swiss talks are expected to just discuss a reportedly watered-down version of Zelensky’s demands that Russia already ruled out complying with in principle, thus dooming them to failure.

It’s too early to tell what the next potential Saudi ones could entail, but that might be moot if the Sino-Brazilian process tangibly takes shape before then and overshadows it, such as if something is organized by summertime with a view towards expanding upon it during November’s G20 Summit in Rio. The past two winters have seen a freeze in fighting along the front so it therefore follows that this would be an advantageous time to negotiate a lasting peace that formalizes the Line of Contact by that time.

This is a reasonable forecast for the reasons that were explained and can only be offset by a major escalation in the conflict such as if NATO conventionally intervenes at a large scale, especially if this leads to another Cuban-like nuclear brinksmanship crisis between Russia and the US. In that case, everything might freeze far before wintertime, thus invalidating the analyzed joint Sino-Brazilian effort, but there’s another way to reshape the diplomatic dynamics that’s much less dramatic if that doesn’t happen.

India, which is multi-aligning between Russia and the US while continuing to fiercely compete with China, could theoretically organize another Voice Of Global South Summit. This would ideally be in person though it might perhaps only be online if it’s on short notice, but the purpose would be to preempt whatever China and Brazil might be planning. The West would naturally prefer for India to reaffirm its leadership of the Global South and influence the peace process than for China-backed Brazil.

In the event that there are Indian and Sino-Brazilian peace processes of some sort before the next potential Saudi talks and especially prior to November’s G20 in Rio, then the first might come to have much more weight due to the potential participation of more Western countries. If given the choice, they’d rather endorse Indian-hosted talks than anything connected with China like the ones that Brazil might host in coordination with Beijing so as to not give the People’s Republic a grand diplomatic victory.

Considering this, the West could take the wind out of China and Brazil’s sails if it were to signal interest in participating in more equal talks on Ukraine after the Swiss ones fail but on the condition that India hosts them, thus ditching the reported Saudi back-up plan in order to appeal more to the Global South. That would be a creative way for them to remain relevant, but it requires political will and American approval to happen, neither of which can be taken for granted since the US is obsessed with escalating right now.

These calculations could change, however, depending on the progress that Russia makes on the ground in the special operation zone. If NATO doesn’t conventionally intervene at a large scale, especially if it doesn’t cross the Dnieper and thus risk provoking Russia into using tactical nuclear weapons in self-defense as a last resort to safeguard the territorial integrity of its new regions, then the US might reconsider its stance. In that case, the Indian option might become a more attractive alternative for it.

Be that as it may, whatever non-Western peace process might follow the doomed-to-fail Swiss one (Saudi, Sino-Brazilian, and/or Indian), it’ll have to ensure Russia’s objective national security interests. The Kremlin has already said multiple times that it’s not interested in freezing the conflict just for the sake of it since that could lead to Ukraine’s further militarization and make another conflict inevitable. The US and its proxies must therefore first be militarily humbled in order for them to realize this.

That’s already happening, but it’s precisely for this reason why the US is so obsessed with escalating right now out of desperation to strategically defeat Russia, ergo the rationale (in its policymakers’ minds at least) of “escalating to de-escalate” on more advantageous terms for the West in that scenario. Hopefully some comparatively more pragmatic figures within its establishment will convince decisionmakers of the dangerous futility behind this policy and get the US to sincerely negotiate peace.