Nagorno-Karabakh: Reading in the behavior of the parties


The conflict of the region "Nagorno-Karabakh" began after the breakup of the Soviet Union, which causes the forming of several independent countries in the Eurasian space . Each of the two adjacent countries, Armenia and Azerbaijan, after gaining independence, belongs to two different teams with different affiliations. Perhaps this new affiliation and the differences in political interests of the two teams are the real reason  for the increased conflict  between them and not just a dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Azerbaijan's strong relations with Turkey have reached an advanced degree of mutual cooperation in all military, security, political and economic aspects, to the extent that the former Azeri President Heydar Aliyev declared that the Azeri's and Turks are one people in two states.

Armenia stands on the other side, because the Armenians see the Turkish state  as an opponent continues to show hostility to Armenia and its people. The  Armenians are requesting Turkey to apologize for what they caused to the Armenian people from pain, the Armenians remember especially the slaughter and displacement carried out by the Ottoman Empire.

The United States and its Western allies providing support to Azerbaijan, and they are trying to destabilize security and stability on Russia's borders in all places. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh region is not only a conflict between the two countries, Armenia and Azerbaijan, but has a strategic importance on the southern borders of Russia and in the Caspian region.

Russia is a state seeks to extinguish the flames by diplomatic means  in its southern garden, to secure stability in this strategic environment. This region is an important part of Eurasia, which has a lot of historical and natural ingredients for the formation of an Asian space, which offers a variety of services to all the peoples of this space and establish strong relations between its countries.

We believe that this historical introduction will be necessary to help us to understand the real causes of the attack on the region ” Nagorno-Karabakh" on 2/4/2016.

The excitement of this conflict at this time calls us to understand the political and intellectual backgrounds, to be able to propose a new concept for dealing with these parties and respond to them.

Press presidential spokesman of the region " Nagorno-Karabakh " have said that "Turkey may be involved in the escalation of the conflict in the region". Here we will begin offering our assumptions about the parties that animated this conflict.

The US , Western allies and Turkey have enough reasons for igniting the conflict. The United States and its allies received a "slap in the face" did not expect from Russia, when Russian forces succeeded in changing the direction of the fighting in Syria, and also when these Russian forces with its allies managed to eliminate large numbers of terrorists, which led to the ebb of terrorism in a relatively short time. Unlike the coalition led by the United States, which actually led to the proliferation of more terrorism in both Syria and Iraq. This success showed Russia as a global power, which is able to have effective decisions at the time it wants. All of these reasons may move America and its allies  to send some messages to Russia that it will not be left unanswered, And that  the US and its allies still have the big influence on different parts in the word.

But I think that the US approach at this stage indicates the desire not to increase the places of tension, but the current administration is working on the contrary, to calm down and deport problems until after the US elections. That can help president Barack Obama to deliver his reign that as he was  working to withdraw from the war zones as he has promised in the campaigns of the election, and should  present a picture for the American citizens, that the Democratic Party government is  seeking  for world peace (the restoration of diplomatic relations with Cuba) and is working to reduce its presence outside the United States, which would be a good support of the new Democratic candidate, and  increases the chances of the Democratic Party's to success in the coming elections.

The Western countries have now enough problems, either economically or in terms of security. I think they logically do not seek to ignite a new war may have side effects not only on the nearby surroundings but on the whole world.

The only party that has enough reasons to be behind these events in Nagorno-Karabakh is Turkey. This state has moved from zero problems, five years ago, to zero friends at the present time. This state, which was transformed from a country blessed with political and security stability to the swamp of terrorism, has brought terror to itself twice: Once when Turkey encouraged all the terrorists of the world to come to fight  in the Syrian war, to achieve an ancient Ottoman dream through its control over the neighboring countries using terrorist groups. And again through reckless policy of the  this state against its own people, the Kurds, and even turn them into second-class citizens through requesting to withdraw the parliamentary immunity of Kurdish deputies, which they elected democratically. It is no longer an assumption after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced his intention to support Azerbaijan till the end and without any limits.

The fabricating of a new crisis in the Nagorno-Karabakh region by Turkey demonstrates the tragic situation reached by the Turkish leadership, that do not find any future prospects, neither to achieve any gains nor to maintain the internal situation that had previously prevailed inside Turkey. They feel that they " do not lose more papers ", if they make a step forward (as its ally Saudi Arabia did in intervening in Yemen). "As they think," they may put pressure on the Russian government through a show of military strength, perhaps they push to gain something through reclassifying them with the alliance of the winners instead of the alliance of the losers, to which Turkey and Saudi Arabia clearly belong.

What we want to emphasize is the way of thinking, and the nature of those, who belonging to political Islam represented by the Muslim Brotherhood movement, to which the AKP government belong. The history of the Muslim Brotherhood shows that they do not hesitate to say or to do anything  can support their plans, even it does not have any amount of credibility, they do not hesitate to act anything to achieve their interests, no matter how it seems to be far away from logic and rationality and regardless of allies and friends accounts. They always turn against their partners and their allies when they have a chance to achieve their interests. Did they turn against their Syrian ally at the beginning of the Syrian crisis without any warning? Although Syria was establishing the best relation with them. Did that happen with the Western allies when Turkey sank Western countries with Syrian refugees to put pressure on these countries to stand by their side to achieve their goals in Syria? When it could not happen, as a result of an international conditions greater than the capacity of its allies, did not they put pressure on their Western allies and compromised on the sheet of refugees for the money? Did the Justice and Development government turn against the Russian partner, who was establishing with them an important strategic relationship, when they thought that the favorable opportunity seems to be existing to draw the Atlantic allies into battle with Russia, when they dropped the Russian Sukhoi plane?

They do not have values when it related to their plans and their interests. Even they do not appreciate the positive signals from others as signs of good faith. Their way of thinking make them understanding these signs of good faith as weakness, because they do not believe on the values as an aim in itself, they do not understand all the ways of dialogue that is based on values, and they only understand the dialogue based on force. If they unfortunately do not know that the force  needs wisdom with it, otherwise it would be a disaster for the owners, but thanks to our values we know that.