Georgian Crisis

The former Soviet Republic of Georgia is in the midst of a long-running political crisis orchestrated by its nominal Western allies from the US, NATO, and the EU. President Salome Zourabichvili, who was born in France and used to serve in its Foreign Ministry, refuses to relinquish power after the new parliament just voted for her successor. She’s championed the Western-backed unrest over nearly the past two years that began with riots in spring 2023 against the ruling Georgian Dream’s foreign agents law.

Georgian Dream is a populist conservative-nationalist movement that seeks to protect the country’s traditional culture and sovereignty from all pernicious foreign influences. To that end, it promulgated a much milder form of the US’ own Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) aimed at labeling certain information materials as paid for with foreign funding or produced by foreign-connected people or groups. This is meant to inform the populace so that they’re not misled and can make better decisions.

That move served as the trigger for these same foreign-connected people and groups to attempt a Color Revolution in spring 2023, which in hindsight was intended to overthrow the pragmatic Georgian Dream party and replace it with Western puppets who’d open up a “second front” against Russia. Georgian Dream refused to sacrifice their country’s objective economic interests by sanctioning Russia, nor did they want to risk turning into Ukraine by provoking a war with Russia over Abkhazia or South Ossetia.

Readers should remember that this occurred in the run-up to Ukraine’s ultimately failed counteroffensive, hence the West’s urgency at the time in overthrowing Georgian Dream so that Georgia could then work in tandem with Ukraine in order to maximally destabilize Russia. The West therefore never forgave Georgian Dream for remaining neutral in the New Cold War at one of its most climactic moments. This explains why they resumed their regime change campaign earlier this year.

Georgian Dream’s de-escalation tactic at the time was to delay the promulgation of its foreign agents law, with the unrest predictably returning after they took steps to once again pass that legislation. Zourabichvili met with her Western handlers and even invited some of their most prominent representatives to Tbilisi to cheer on the rioters, who tried to storm the parliament in a J-6 redux. On the topic of parliament, this October’s elections were another trigger for an even greater round of unrest.

This was supposed to represent the culmination of their by-then nearly 18-month-long regime change campaign but it fell flat after Georgian Dream won a majority of seats like objective observers expected. The security services have also wisely eschewed disproportionate force in order to avoid giving foreign agents and their patrons decontextualized footage that could further radicalize some of the rioters. The situation remains tense, but for now, it’s mostly under control but anything could always happen.

The latest events led to the formal rupturing of Georgia’s relations with the West. Georgian Dream froze its EU accession talks till 2028 out of self-respect since it makes no sense to continue trying to join an organization that doesn’t recognize the outcome of Georgia’s democratic parliamentary elections. The US then suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia in response. Both are purely symbolic though since there was never any chance of Georgian Dream leading Georgian into the EU or NATO.

Those two organizations demand complete ideological fealty to their shared American hegemon. The only exceptions are Hungary and Slovakia, but that’s because populist conservative-nationalists came to power after those countries already joined. They would never have been allowed in had their contemporary leaders been in charge during their respective accession processes. Now that they’re in power, their countries are isolated within those organizations, and neither poses a threat to the US.

They’re just minor political irritants at most, like Georgian Dream would have been had Georgia already been accepted into the EU and NATO by the time that the party came to power and began defending national interests. Even so, Georgian Dream’s defiance of Western demands to sacrifice their country’s objective interests for the US’ is an unforgiveable offense. They were supposed to have already rolled over or been deposed by now, not win a parliamentary majority in spite of all Western efforts.

Georgia’s significance to the West extends further than Russia and so-called “Western values” since it’s also envisaged as playing a crucial role in helping that bloc poach Armenia from the CSTO. This landlocked country has drifted away from Russia in recent years under the leadership of its pro-Western premier who came to power in his own Color Revolution. Armenia’s loss in the latest Karabakh War was exploited as the pretext for accelerating the country’s pro-Western pivot by falsely blaming Russia.

It suspended its membership in the CSTO and has cultivated military ties with NATO, particularly the US and France, where some of the most ultra-nationalist and Russophobic members of its diaspora reside. The only way to bring Armenia closer into NATO’s fold is via military logistics through Georgia, whose incumbent government might not want to stoke the flames of another regional war. They can either temporarily compromise with the West by letting this happen or create obstacles to these plans.

Right now, it’s unclear what their approach towards this issue is, but judging by their pragmatism in not sanctioning Russia nor opening up another front against it, Georgian Dream is expected to at the very least be very cautious about the idea of NATO turning Armenia into its regional bastion of influence. After all, they’re against anything that can disrupt their country’s trade and harm its security, and another war over Armenia’s irredentist claims could deal a double whammy to Georgian interests.

As Georgia’s tensions with the West worsen, it can’t be precluded that the West might order its proxies in the so-called “Georgian Legion” to wage a Hybrid War on their homeland. This organization is designated as a terrorist group by Russia due to its war crimes in Donbass. Its members are highly experienced since they’ve been involved in the conflict since it first erupted over a decade ago. Their possible involvement in this crisis could have unforeseen consequences.

Amidst all this negativity, there’s at least one bright spot, and it’s that Georgian Dream pledged to improve relations with its former regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia with a view towards reconciliation, though provided of course that the political will exists on all sides. Russia praised this intent a few months ago when it was first expressed and offered to facilitate talks however it can. It’s premature to predict what’ll happen, but this is definitely a positive sign.

Georgia learned from Ukraine’s ongoing experience during the special operation that reconciliation is better than retribution, especially when the former regions that one wants to exact retribution against are protected by Russia. In fact, one of Georgian Dream’s media campaigns was to contrast images of their country and Ukraine to emphasize that the party wants to prevent Georgia from following that path. It’ll be a long journey and the end is uncertain, but it’s noble that Georgia wants reconciliation.

That’s another reason, however, why the West wants to overthrow them since any tangible progress on that policy would reinforce the fact that Ukraine’s fate could have been altogether different had it practiced reconciliation with Donbass instead of obsessing over retribution at America’s urging. Looking forward, Georgia should brace itself for more Western-driven instability, but hopefully it’ll continue to stand strong and set an example that might later inspire others within the West’s sphere of influence.