Can Trump and Russia Strike a Deal on Novorossiya?


Regardless of who is in charge in the US, Russia must take back what belongs to her, or at least what belongs to the Russian World: Novorossiya, Malorossiya, Belarus, Kazahstan, Armenia, like all former Soviet republics, because of history and geography are part of this Russian World. Add to this some of Russia’s closest foreign allies such as Cuba, Venezuela, Syria, Iran, and Serbia, for example, and you get the picture of the Russian "sphere of influence" that is non-negotiable. Russia should actually make an "offer" to Trump: Russia will not "attack" or pressure the Russophobic vassal-states of the USA - Poland, Romania or the Baltic pseudo-states (well, for the Baltics as long as they do not attack the Russian population there), Russia will support the fight against ISIS and (Islamic) terrorism, and Russia will not meddle in Yemen or Libya (for the time being, at least) if the USA will accept (de facto, not necessarily de jure) this Russian sphere of influence.

On top of that, Russia can be officially neutral up to a certain point in the coming quarrel between the US and China. Of course, the Chinese leaders should be informed beforehand of this official stance and reassured that, in reality, nothing of strategical importance between Russia and China will change. Is this to "fool" Trump? No, it is just "realpolitik", and he would do the same if he could. China cannot blame Russia for its lack of support because this is an economic matter solely between US and China from the start. If it gets beyond the economy, then Russia can act according to the situation. Anyway, Trump will have to be satisfied to show that he kept his word if he brings back several thousand jobs from China - but not if he brings back American soldiers in body-bags from former Ukraine, killed while trying to help a Nazi regime.

Russia should expose the Kiev Nazi junta officially at the UN, the OSCE, and other international forums, and show that the Kiev regime is both illegal, Nazi, and guilty of committing war-crimes in Donbass and Novorossiya. This will make it difficult for Trump to support the Kiev regime and will pave the way for a Russian-supported liberation of Novorossiya and Malorossiya. We must understand that, regardless of who is in charge in the US, Novorossiya and Malorossiya are still Russian lands and they are occupied by Nazis, but only as long as Russia allows it. Trump knows this and he will not go to war to save the Nazis in Kiev, but he will use them to pressure Russia into weakening her strategic alliance with China. The Russian "offer" as described above will neutralize this "tool" of Trump’s. And if Trump does not offer Russia anything, then of course Russia should fully back China in exchange for Chinese backing in former Ukraine and elsewhere.

Domestically, of course, for Russia the Trump Administration presents an opportunity to get rid of the 5th column that has close ties with the outgoing American administration and is not friends of Trump. As for Europe, we just have to wait and see. It is no secret that all the EU governments and the Nazi junta in Kiev hoped for Hillary to defeat Trump, so he will probably not be willing to fulfill all their wishes. But he will not dismantle NATO. Nor will he take home American troops from eastern Europe unless there is some "deal" with Russia - but any such "deal" must include regime-change in Kiev and the federalization of former Ukraine or even better: independence for Novorossiya and all lands east of the Dnepr river (Eastern Malorossiya). This will not be easy to get from him, but it is not impossible.

Thus, do not expect Trump to be a "great friend" of Russia. He will do what he thinks is best for the US, and only some parts of this may be good for Russia too. Those parts should of course be welcomed by Russia, but without giving up the strategic partnership with China and, even more importantly, without giving up Novorossiya and Malorossiya.