A Brief Macro-Analysis of the 2024 US Presidential Elections and its Geopolitical Amplifications

It can be a fair assertion to assume that our American political and geopolitical volatility has not been under such exceptional circumstances, if not exponentially more, since the George W. Bush – Al Gore’s 2000 presidential elections which unfortunately culminated in the 9/11 attacks the following year. God-forbid, any such despicable event(s) would ever happen on our American soil, although the Netanyahu cabal can never be underestimated to create false flag operations, in collaboration with lunatic Islamist gangs and terrorists, and then blame it on, say Iran, even though such vast conspiracies are not achievable these days and will be debunked before they actually commence. Thank you, internet!

At any rate, if this election is not stolen by rubber barons such as Bill Gates, George Soros, et al. for Kamala Harris, or let’s say comprehensive voter fraud would be committed due to our outdated voting security systems, it is my academic prediction, although I could be proven wrong within a few days, that President Trump may conceivably win the 2024 election with JD Vance as crown prince and heir apparent in 2028, if not earlier! I will elaborate on this possible controversial twist towards the end of this analytical article.

It’s a very tight race and nearly impossible to predict. Ultimately, this presidential election may come down to eight swing states that remain very competitive, in fact neck-to-neck! These are: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Hampshire. It is also possible that because of such close margins of victory, both candidates may not concede the final results. Could we have another Year 2000 Bush-Gore mess on our hands, this time with an angle of unprecedented super irritated voters, on both sides, who may want to “duke it out” in the streets? Not likely. The system wouldn't allow it, as all anarchy must be violently suppressed. This is now literally a matter of our national security. I am genuinely worried for our state of the union like never before, as hinted a couple of years ago by the Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene from Georgia’s 14th congressional district when she brought up the topic of what she called, “National Divorce”. Mind you, Georgia is one of the crucial battleground states. But could there be intense arm twisting and fervent inter-political battles within state legislatures over the certification of results? That remains to be seen, depending on how close the margins of results are. The ideal situation, if President Trump wins, would be for Vice-President Harris to concede immediately, so there would not be any drama, as was the case leading to the January 6th 2021 uprisings in Washington where thousands of National Guard troops were deployed: An unprecedented phenomenon!

At any rate, if President Trump wins, in four years’ time from now, i.e. the 2028 elections, the baton will finally be passed down to the new generation of American politicians, many of whom are extremely competent and truly patriotic with much focus on domestic issues such as crime, immigration, drugs epidemic, abortion, transgender ideologically, tax reform, etc. My prediction is that it will be between JD Vance (current junior senator from the state of Ohio and the 2024 Republican vice-presidential nominee) and Governor Gavin Newsom from my home state of California, a truly incompetent Wokist liberal who along with the out-of-control liberal leadership in Sacramento, the capital of California, have wrecked our once-beautiful golden state. Let us not forget that it was during California Attorney General Kamala Harris’ tenure that an absurd law was passed not to arrest or prosecute retail store shopliftings of up to $950. The transgender ideology has also run a mock in California, not to mention our homelessness crisis, and the corporate exodus of numerous California-based multinational corporations such as Elon Musk’s Tesla to Austin, Texas in 2021.

Back to my earlier point. There will be no civil war as forecasted by many alarmist analysts and commentators, other than isolated incidents, here and there, but definitely not at the national level. So rest assured. The functionally of our elaborate and intricate security apparatus will simply not allow that, especially as overseas geopolitical equations and the international order itself are dangerously shifting against our global interests and even being openly challenged at the point of verbal nuclear threats from Russia. Our Russian colleagues are of course experts in bluffing. But this time, it's a different ball game, as Russia perceives an eminent existential crisis and even balkanization. Rightly so. These concerns are not geopolitical paranoia as NATO is expanding further to the east. So much for President George H.W. Bush and President Gorbachev’s “mutual understanding”. Gone are those days and such leaders. Perhaps not, if Trump is elected.

Now, shifting to the macro-economics, we (the United States) have been experiencing unprecedented challenges from China, a joined-at-the-hip economic partner while simultaneously a future adversary, who decided to speed up their 2025 expansionist plans. We believe this started back in 2008, as they witnessed the mishandling of our economic incompetency in the mortgage crisis which lead to what we now call, "The Great Recession". If not contained, especially in spite of the goals stated at the recent plenary session of the 16th BRICS Plus Summit in Kazan, Russia, the demise of our US dollar as the global reserve currency will be our biggest defeat in our 248 year history, going back to July 4, 1776 when we declared our independence from Britain which kick-started the revolutionary wars. Is it possible that we may not make it to our 250th anniversary on July 4, 2026? This, of course, is an alarmist speculation which I personally don't foresee taking place any time soon. The de-dollarization process will be long, hard, and strenuous if the demise in fact happens.

Here’s a nuance: Let it not be forgotten that all wars are bankers’ wars! What people need to understand is that WWIII does not [and will not] resemble anything close to WWI and WWII or even the Cold War. This is where the dystopia occurs in the global masses’ understanding of geopolitics and geo-economics.

Militaristically, of course, we're undefeatable. This is a mathematical certainty, not open to speculation. No country [or even a coalition of countries] can match our technological might in at least the next 20-30 years. The way we are able to project power anywhere in the world at a moment’s notice exhibits our incredible fighting prowess, unmatched in human history. Nevertheless, war is the absence of reason. As the Portuguese-Jewish philosopher and a forerunner of the Age of Enlightenment, Baruch Spinoza, wrote in the Theologico-Political Treatise in 1670: "Peace is not an absence of war, it is a virtue, a state of mind, a disposition for benevolence, confidence, and justice." Our political leadership in Washington needs to re-discover this virtue that has been absent since 2001 as we’ve been in a state of perpetual war. I think this is possible, even applicable, if there is enough willenskraft and Selbstüberwindung – German for willpower and self-overcoming, something Friedrich Nietzsche talked about which in my opinion can apply to geopolitics. After all, when men don’t speak to one another, they reach for their swords. As advisors, we must keep the leaders talking, especially amongst adversaries. I think with a second Trump administration, this may be possible, at least when it comes to the Russia-Ukraine war, but not the West Asia/ Middle East theater of war where Trump is an ardent and unconditional supporter of the state of Israel. No strategic ambiguity there.

A Kamala Harris administration will pursue further unnecessary misadventures, as did the Biden administration, in preventing a cessation of hostilities and eventually promoting peace in the NATO-Russia war. Even though historically the Democratic Party has been a party of relative reconciliation, especially during the Vietnam War, ironically these roles have now switched between the Republican and the Democratic Party. Minus diehard Israelism, where the Neocons operate vastly unchallenged within both parties, especially the unconstructive rhetoric of the Republican vice-presidential nominee Senator JD Vance literally from the outset of his nomination towards Iran, Republicans for most part are the adults in the room at least when it comes to our imperial hubris in the Ukraine War. Nevertheless, let it also be fairly said that the Biden Administration has handled the Israel-Iran war rather impeccably, considering the alternative if Donald Trump was in the White House. I forecast such US-Iran détente policies would continue if Vice-President Harris gets elected, although when it comes to Israel and the dominant clout of their powerful AIPAC lobby in Washington, money has its own logic! This is an albatross around our neck that needs to be seriously addressed at the highest echelon of our policy-making level. Currently and in the unforeseeable future, this possibility does not exist, as ultra-hardliners and religious ethno-supremacists are in charge in Tel Aviv. Regardless, unless our corrupt political campaign contribution laws are not reformed, which is highly unlikely, nothing will change in Washington in terms of our foreign policy towards Israel and we will continue to be encaptivated by them.

Nonetheless, when 30 to 40 countries want to join the BRICS, it can be argued that perhaps the writing may be on the wall for the collective western block and that we're under a dangerous multi-front strategic economic threat. This, however, can be avoided since we still have sizeable leverage over all nations. But our alliances - minus UK, Australia, South Korea, and Japan - are showing some signs of possible weakening. Can this financial existential danger be diverted? Time will tell.

But the inconvenient truth is that we may have lost the war in Ukraine, at least up to now. Even France is sending some signals of potential deviation from the trans-Atlantic alliance. As the British say, “The French can never be trusted.” If NATO permits Ukraine to make incursions within Russia's border through offensive military capabilities, there will be a battlefield tactical nuclear attack by Russia in Ukraine. But this will not escalate into a full strategic conventional nuclear war. Nevertheless, the situation in Ukraine is unsustainable for all parties. In fact, it’s dire straight.

Meanwhile, China and Russia are going to use Iran to do their bidding against our US national interests in the West Asia/ Middle East. The Iranians would be very unwise to continue thinking solely on Anti-American ideological terms and jeopardize [and trade in] their independency and national sovereignty in order to get military protection from Russia and China against Israel, as this alliance has been put into motion for a long time, with Iran essentially making itself a proxy of the emerging eastern bloc, if not already. However, the Iranians are shrewd strategists and play the long chess game.

Meanwhile, even though a founding member of BRICS, Modi's India will hedge its losses by playing both sides of the fence by remaining a part of Netanyahu's India-UAE-Saudi-Israel-US alliance. How can we forget Netanyahu’s ridiculous “New Map of the Middle East” at the last UNGA (United Nations General Assembly) literally a few days before the October 7 attacks!

Back to our domestic politics which was the opening point of this brief macro-analysis, it’s possible that our political system, i.e. our deep state apparatus, may reluctantly and begrudgingly allow Donald Trump to win this time around. Some argue that the two assassination attempts were just a signal to President Trump that if he slightly deviates from the current international order by acting erratically and unpredictably, he might be taken out, God-forbid, with a third and final attempt during his second term. Even the thought alone is grotesque. But we have crossed the Rubicon and have once again degenerated to political assassination ploys that were reminiscent of the 1960s with the murder of four political giants: John F. Kennedy (November 22, 1963), Malcolm X (February 21, 1965), Martin Luther King Jr. (April 4, 1968) and Robert F. Kennedy (June 5, 1968).

But perhaps it's already no longer about Donald Trump. Is he passé even if he wins? What is the presidential trajectory in the years to come? The Neocons' investment is on both JD Vance and Kamala Harris, now and in 2028 if Harris wins, regardless of Dick Cheney's endorsement of Vice-President Harris which I personally believe was a diversion and a ploy to further enhance the illusion of presidential choice and political flexibility and open-mindedness in order to perpetuate the myth of our tragically-decaying democracy which I genuinely hope [and aspire] to be avoided, as a patriotic American. Such is my brief macro-analysis, only 5 five days before our presidential elections, which in my opinion is the most important election of our republic and now our empire's history.