Ukraine: war again? Part V

Part I
Part II
Part III
Part IV

However, the Minsk Agreement did not resolve and could not solve the key Ukrainian contradictions. Thus, they were initially considered by the sides of Ukrainian conflict as a pause to be used to strengthen positions and increase combat potentials. Kiev ended up in worse position than the republics of DPR and LPR. The republics rely on the Russian neighbour, and their relatively small population partly emigrated to Russia and partly able to exist with the help of Russian humanitarian supplies. On the rest of the territories held by Ukraine envelopes an economic disaster, which in hand is developing into a political crisis. The accelerating collapse of the living standards, rapidly rising unemployment, now covers a third of the working population, who are experiencing a lack of prospects, causing distrust in politicians of Maidan, anger and radicalization of society, with threats to repeat the Maidan.

Economic disaster has caused a split not only in the disunified state of Maidan. The need of fighting for scarce economic resources, as well as of the judgment of the people of those responsible for the defeat in war and the collapse of the economy make almost impossible an agreement between the different political groups. Given the fact that each political group in Ukraine has got its own combat troops (mainly from among the volunteer battalions), all the political experience of the personnel which consists only in an armed rebellion against Yanukovych and participation in the civil war, so it is easy to assume that the internecine Maidan dispute will be decided by force of arms.

The civil war in Ukraine acquires several formats, and intensification becomes a matter of the nearest time. Ukraine may not find salvation by itself. The Nazis will not allow the authorities to build a compromise with Novorossia. Novorossia will not live in peace with the Nazi government. Resources for the resolution of social problems isn't functioning. The Ukrainian government is inadequate and does not envision the situation of its economy properly, nor what or who determines its politics. The resolution may not happen with forces within Ukraine, due to their equal numbering and danger of fatal causes which will follow, that its neighbours cannot simply stand and watch, at least because its borders are crossed by millions of immigrants.

To avoid worst case scenario, there is a need of an external force, which may agree to take on responsibility for the disarmament of the parties of the conflict and the financial and economic support for Ukraine, to restoring its economy. Now there is no one just willing to engage in such charity. Given the political situation in Ukraine (split, hate, heavily armed groups), as well as the state of its economy in danger of collapsing.

The inadequacy of the Ukrainian elite, its irrational faith in the willingness of the West to deal with the Ukrainian problem at its own expense , has put the state in a position where its self-destruction in the short-term is the only logically consistent version at the moment. But the preservation and restoration of the Ukrainian state, even in the truncated borders, it is not just improbable, but an impossible output, demanding for the realization of a miracle, which will change dramatically all applicable factors. From the standpoint of religious belief in a miracle this is an option, from the perspective of policy analysis it is so unreal, that is simply not to be considered.