Is the US getting ready for a war with Iran?

14.05.2019

Recent events around Iran prove that Donald Trump was not joking when he threatened to punish the Islamic Republic.

At the meeting, the Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan presented a plan for sending 120,000 troops to the Gulf region. In addition to the carrier group, which has already moved to its shores. This is certainly not a half-million army - namely, so much is needed for the ground operation and the occupation of Iran - but still a decent armada.

It seems that the new head of the Pentagon just decided to prove his loyalty to the president. His predecessor, James Mattis, although he was called Mad Dog, was more independent and, most importantly, more rational. But now in the administration the hawks are taking over. And behind all these intrigues, the ears of national security adviser John Bolton, who always dreamed of cracking down on Iran, “stick out”.

The most interesting thing is that the United States wants to punish this Middle Eastern country in such a way that Tehran remains to blame for this. Pay attention to the latest statements by Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at Dunford. Unlike Bush Jr., they are not talking about a preventive strike, but about protection. That is, according to their logic, it is Iran preparing to attack the United States, and the Americans will simply fight back.

There are many reasons to attack

If translated into normal language, the United States is now looking for a reason to strike at the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). And the trigger can serve anything. And the refusal of the Islamic Republic of Iran to comply with the terms of the nuclear deal, as President Hasan Rouhani said last week. This could be Iran’s military activity in Syria or Yemen, from where they threaten Israeli security and freedom of navigation along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Or, more pragmatically, an incident in the Persian Gulf. The last attack of drones on Saudi tankers is just a rehearsal of such provocation. If, subsequently, Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, through which one fifth of the world oil trade goes, then the Pentagon will have a powerful alibi in its hands.

However, before you arrange a provocation, preparation is required. Washington has already embarked on its diplomatic part. Secretary of State Pompeo visited three countries in a week: first Iraq, then he immediately flew to Brussels and then arrived in Russia. Iraq is a neighbor of Iran, and it needs logistic support to attack Tehran. The European Union should help with the sanctions. If earlier Europeans still doubted them, then after Iran’s partial withdrawal from a nuclear deal, the mood in Brussels is already changing. If we talk about Russia, then from it Trump needs tacit consent. What the US will offer in return, we can only guess.

As mentioned above, a 120-thousand army is not enough to invade Iran. But let's be honest. The USA did not declare that they were planning an invasion. They may well be limited to pinpoint strikes. For example, on nuclear facilities. And most likely, the Mossad has already handed over to the CIA an updated map of these strategic facilities. A week ago, Israeli intelligence reported that Iran had transferred Hezbollah troops and a kamikaze droning party to Kish Island in the Persian Gulf. And, according to some rumors, it was with the help of these drones that the Saudi tankers were shot at. To sum up these circumstances, it is already clear today that three more states will definitely participate in the US attack. Saudi Arabia - because they are shooting at its tankers. United Arab Emirates, off the coast of which the attack occurred. And, of course, Israel is concerned about the presence of pro-Iranian militias in neighboring Syria and Lebanon.

Bet on economic chaos

If we talk about the consequences, then launching missile strikes will bury the hope of peace with the West in Iran. Conservatives will shift the reformers led by Rouhani. The prison term for his brother is an unequivocal signal of pressure on the liberals. True, with the current economic situation - there is hardly enough clerics power for long. From March to April 2019, Iranian oil exports fell from 1.7 million to less than 1 million barrels per day. Last year, the Iranian rial depreciated by 60% against the dollar.

With the threat of military clashes, the remaining foreign investors from the PRC, Turkey and Russia will begin to flee from the Islamic Republic. This will cause economic chaos. And then the embittered Iranian people will shift the blame on Ayatollah Khomeini and overthrow the ruling regime of the clerics for 40 years. Whether Tehran will eventually come to democracy, for Washington is not the point. The main strategic goal of the United States is to restore the status quo, lost as a result of the 2003 Iraq war.