موږ په قطر کې له طالبانو سره د خبرو دغه دور پاې ته ورساوه. زه به نن وروسته د سلامشورو لپاره کابل ته سفر وکړم.
US capitulates to Taliban
Information about the results of negotiations between the United States and the Taliban is not that vague or contradictory ... On the contrary, judging by the discussions in the political establishment that have unfolded in America, everything is clear: a preliminary agreement on the withdrawal of American troops from the country, and negotiations on this topic took more than a year yet concluded. At least, it’s preliminary, as it is called in diplomatic language.
And now we are talking about adapting this seemingly impossible agreement into the political space.
Political space of Afghanistan
The representative at the talks from the United States reported on the imminent result, he is also the US special representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad.
We have completed this round of negotiations with the Taliban in Doha. Later today I will go to Kabul for consultations,
He wrote on his Twitter.
But after this generally neutral information, he made it clear that both sides are on the verge of signing an agreement that "will reduce violence and allow Afghans to sit at the negotiating table to discuss the sustainable peace and territorial integrity of Afghanistan."
موږ د یوه داسې توافق په درشل کې یو چې زورزیاتی به لږ کړي او افغانانو ته به ور پرانیزي چې سره کښیني او د یوې باعزته او پایدارې سولې او د یوه متحده او بااقتداره افغانستان په اړه چې متحده ایالتونو، متحدینو یې او بل هیواد ته ګواښ ونکړي، مذاکرات وکړې.
The details of the agreement, of course, are known only to negotiators and their bosses in the political leadership. But general information is not a secret. Within 4.5 months, Americans must withdraw almost all of their troops from the country. This means the evacuation of 14 thousand troops and five military bases. There is also information that employees of private military companies, who, in fact, have long been the main burden of combat work in a country torn by civil war, have also left Afghanistan.
It is also alleged that some minor part of the US military will remain to guard the embassy and American facilities.
In this light, the promise of Khalilzad to fly from Doha, the capital of Qatar, where the negotiations were ongoing, to the capital of Afghanistan, Kabul, for some “consultations” looks ambiguous to the point of intimacy.
The Afghan government without the Americans will not be able to maintain power and territory. If the Americans leave - and they leave, because the very logic of negotiations with the Taliban * is built on this - then the Kabul government must also pack its belongings. He now needs to consult about his fate rather with the Taliban....
Thus, it should be more likely that Khalilzad will inform the Afghan leadership about the agreements reached with the Taliban. In fact, the US special representative began to work as a courier between the Taliban and the regime, transferring, obviously, from the first some conditions under which they would not immediately begin to hang members of his leadership. Or not all.
Meanwhile, the Taliban agrees to negotiate a ceasefire with the government, but does not agree to negotiate power. More precisely, the movement does not assume any obligations regarding its participation in any coalitions, which, objectively speaking, alone are capable of drawing at least illusive security guarantees for those who rule Afghanistan today.
The Taliban is far from a single and not even hierarchical structure. It can be called network-centric, but in reality it is a coalition of these same “centers”, until the time united by a common goal to overthrow the regime in Kabul. There are forces more moderate and more extremist, more striving for power and more striving for control over what is called “flows”.
In general, the Taliban is a kind of Afghanistan in miniature, which as a set of communities is the same as its geography. That is, not even network-centric, but simply network. As a network of valleys shared by mountains and deserts, almost each of which has its own separate community. Add to this picture the constant movement of such communities with mutual attraction, repulsion, submission and disintegration and you will understand Afghanistan. His political space.
The political space of America
America is a little easier. Here the political space is nevertheless in some way centralized, hierarchized and in a certain sense “algebraized”. Well, or legalized, although here, too, people are the basis, and not numbers.
And these people are arguing. They argue strongly ...
For example, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo opposed the signing of an agreement with the Taliban. At least that's what Time magazine claims. He and the forces behind him dislike the fact that the Taliban * will have to maintain control and allow or forbid the US military to use force. And not even against himself, but against the al-Qaeda terrorist group. But this, of course, is a rather formal reason. In fact, these people do not like the almost guaranteed prospect of seizing Washington’s controlled regime in the very center of Eurasia. What about Russia? China? Iran? India with Pakistan? So take and get out of the strategically important “height” behind all these countries?
On the other hand, the bitter but humble words are dropped by those who believe that America can no longer win the war in Afghanistan under any circumstances. In those mountains, even nuclear bombs will not help.
So is it not better now, as long as there is a window of opportunity, to make a good face with a bad game? To bring to agreement the very neighboring countries, the world community, and the UN. Make a world show, after which it will be possible to at least own intellectual amoebas, with decades of clipping brains by propaganda, to convince that in fact a big victory has been won!
However, both Washington and the Taliban understand that the withdrawal of troops will become an irreversible process. Even if terrorists hang the current Afghan president, Ghani, they cannot even be punished. Not to mention returning the situation to the original.
And the most humiliating thing for America is awareness, even a firm belief that the Taliban will do so. No, personally President Ghani may not be executed. For example, the Americans will take him with them. But that the current pro-American politicum of Afghanistan will be in the Taliban loop is guaranteed ...
Well, that is, the US will capitulate to the Taliban anyway.
And the symbol of this difficult, and obviously bloody ultimately choice was the vacillating position of the President of America.
Donald Trump “refused to predict whether the United States would conclude an agreement to end hostilities in Afghanistan with the radical Taliban.
And if not, the magnificent old Donny announced, then the United States will be able to "quickly achieve victory" if desired: "We are able to win very quickly." But the United States, it turns out, does not want to do this! The Americans, they say, are not cops.
This, of course, is new to the world gendarme, with whom the United States appointed itself and served for many years. But that is no longer important. The main idea is important, which was manifested in these words of Donald Trump.
Here's the thought: the US is capitulating ...