US and Iran declared each other terrorists
The United States has made the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on the list of terrorist organizations. This gives the United States the opportunity to bomb Syria again, inflict airstrikes on Iran and punish the EU, China and Russia with sanctions.
On the eve of the elections in Israel, Donald Trump gave Tel Aviv another gift. He announced plans to include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the list of terrorist organizations, which already have al-Qaeda, ISIS, Hezbollah, Hamas and other organizations. Iran bought into this step and also made the Central Command of the US Armed Forces (Centcom) on the “black list”.
Although Tehran’s decision was a reaction to the White House’s actions, both of them can have disastrous consequences in the already troubled Middle East.
Why did the US and Iran declare each other terrorists?
The Trump administration sees Iran as a major threat to regional stability. Israel and Saudi Arabia - the main allies of the United States in the region - consider Iran "enemy number 1". All three countries suspect Iran of developing nuclear weapons and accuse it of spreading influence through their proxies. In Syria, pro-Iranian militias and Quds units are fighting on the side of Bashar al-Assad and "threaten" Israel from there. In Lebanon, Hezbollah, loyal to Tehran, is a key political and military force; in Yemen, closest to the Shiites, the Zeusite Hussites control the capital Sana'a and the north of the country. Shiite minorities also influence the policies of Bahrain and Oman. In short, Iran hates the United States for its power. “Timing” of Trump’s decision is related to the Israeli elections, in which he bet on Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud.
For the first time in US history, the official armed forces of one country are ranked as terrorists. And if earlier it was necessary to look for a reason for war, some kind of justification, now it is not necessary to do this.
Given that Washington gives its laws an extraterritorial character, the Iranian military can be killed outside the United States. And where can they be found? In Syria or Iran itself. If the plan is approved by congressmen, it will create a dangerous international precedent.
US targets internal split in Iran
Trump's decision is aimed at intensifying the split within the Iranian elite with a view to the elections to the Mejlis in 2020 and the presidential elections in 2021. Strangely enough, but the entire policy of the Trump administration is playing to strengthen the conservatives in Iran and weaken Rouhani and his entourage. If the IRGC in the American dimension is now terrorists, then they can be destroyed on a par with ISIS and Al-Qaeda, without declaring war on Iran. It is not by chance that in a recent interview Mike Pompeo equated Al-Quds commander Kasem Suleymani to the leader of the Islamic State Al-Baghdadi. The US military and PMCs are completely legally free from the hands of a total war with Iranian forces around the world.
Bring chaos to the Middle East!
Trump will receive a legal justification to destroy Iran. Syria will be the first to feel this blow. There are thousands of Iranian troops. The United States a year ago had already struck Tomahawks on the suburbs of Damascus and other cities. Then they fired at Assad's army under the pretext of the dubious use of "chemical weapons" by Assad against the opposition in the Duma. Now there is an argument that does not require proof.
Do not exclude a direct missile strike on Iran. If earlier it would be necessary to convince the world community that Tehran is developing nuclear weapons or is “illegally” present in Syria, now it is possible to drop a bomb in the name of “the fight against terror”. Obviously, Saudi Arabia and Israel will join this adventure. But Trump would never risk an infantry operation, since she needs a millionth infantry army. However, even “pinpoint strikes” will cause chaos, refugee flows and Iran’s retaliatory strikes against US allies in the region.
Placing the IRGC on the list of terrorists, even if it does not lead to war, is an instrument of political pressure on Iran’s allies. If Iran is a terrorist state, then those who do business with it are accomplices of terrorism. The United States will lift the exceptions for eight countries (including Italy, Turkey and South Korea) from under American oil sanctions and will require the EU to sever ties with Iran, otherwise sanctions. The pressure of the White House and the countries of the Middle East, which flirt with Iran - Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq - so that they interrupt all contacts with Tehran, will grow. In the case of Iraq, this is especially true because there all the louder began to shout "Yankees, go home."
Blow to China and Russia
Russia and China will also be at risk. China is a major buyer of Iranian gas. Russia is a military ally of the IRGC in the fight against terrorists in Syria and a client of Rosoboronexport. Under the sauce of "complicity with terrorism", the Congress may adopt new sanctions against Russia and impose additional tariffs on China for its slowed economy.
Does this mean that Russia needs to break off relations with Iran? Not.
Iran, like Turkey, is needed by Russia to squeeze the United States from the Middle East.