Ukraine agreed to withdraw the troops from the Stanitsa Luganskaya. But for how long?
After nearly three years after the signing in Minsk of a framework agreement on the dilution of forces of the parties between Ukraine and the people's republics of Novorossia, the process moved from the dead point
In accordance with the agreed on the heads of the DPR and LPR, Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky, signed in Minsk on September 20, 2016, each of the three pilot sites (Petrovskoye in DPR, Zolotoe and Stanitsa Luganskaya in LNR) was assigned at least 2 km wide and 2 km deep. The whole process was not given more than 30 days, but in fact it took almost three years.
At the beginning of October 2016, the disengagement of the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the armies of the republics in the areas of Zolotoi and Petrovsky began. However, in the Village of Lugansk, where the only valid checkpoint from the LPR to the territory controlled by Ukraine is located, this process has stalledly stalled. According to the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the LNR and the representative of the Republic in the Trilateral Contact Group Vladislav Dayniy, the LNR made notifications of readiness to begin withdrawal of troops 82 times for more than two and a half years, but there was no response from the Ukrainian side. In the Donbass, they are joking around this gloomily that if the implementation of the “non-alternative” Minsk agreements continues at the same “frantic” pace, the war will end exactly by the beginning of the next millennium.
And finally, at noon on June 26, 2019, representatives of the People’s Militia of the LPR and the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched white signal flares, for their part, indicating their readiness to start the reconnaissance of forces in the Stanitsa Luganskaya region. At the same time, the process of withdrawing troops from the contact line on both sides is controlled by the staff of the OSCE mission.
As the representative of Lugansk in the Joint Center for Control and Coordination (JSCC) Roman Ivanov noted, the withdrawal of forces will take up to three days. Vladislav Daneig expressed the hope that this process will be completed and will contribute to stabilizing the situation on this sector of the front.
The withdrawal of troops does not mean the surrender of Lugansk
The breeding of forces is, first of all, a symbolic act that will not seriously affect the defense capability of the republic. The main task of such actions is to divert forces and assets to a distance sufficient to stop direct contact from small arms. The distance between the positions will be two kilometers. That is, each side devotes all forces and means, including small arms, to a distance of one kilometer from the point indicated in the middle. In the case of provocations or other inappropriate actions of the opposite side, these actions will be eliminated.
As soon as the breeding on the Village Luganskaya will be completed, it will be necessary to perform similar actions on Gold and on Petrovsky, where the Ukrainian side has returned its troops to their original positions. And after that we can talk about how Ukraine is committed to its obligations.
Recall that on March 28, 2019, the representative of the LC, Vladislav Daney, accused Ukraine of seizing the entire territory of the breeding area.
October 3, 2016 in this area held the breeding of forces and equipment. From this area, all units were withdrawn, both our and Ukrainian. We went to a previously agreed and prepared position. And to this day, we remain in the positions of 2016, and Ukraine, from that moment, has practically occupied the entire territory of the breeding area,
- said the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the LC.
In the case of Ukraine’s disengagement of forces of the parties at all three pilot sites in the Village, Gold and Petrovsky, the dialogue will continue. And new areas of breeding forces will be coordinated in order to get a line of contact without the possibility of direct fire contact and seizures of “gray zones”. Among other things, there will be raised the issue of troop dilution and the opening of a new entry-exit control point in the area of the city of Happiness, where the bridge through Seversky Donets that has survived during the fighting is located.
Ukraine tied withdrawal of troops with the end of the Poroshenko era
Breeding parties in the area of the Village of Lugansk is a consequence of the change of power in Ukraine.
People are tired of war. People who used the war for personal enrichment, today are no longer at the helm of the country, they have no more leverage. The era of Poroshenko without a trace goes into oblivion. And with it goes the war goes, feuds go away, hatred goes away.
Why Ukraine agreed to the separation of the parties?
There is an international and especially domestic political pressure on the leadership of Ukraine on the part of the population, which has repeatedly expressed its opinion that the war should be stopped.
The first action that the current leadership of Ukraine should take is to start direct negotiations with the residents of Donbass. This would be a real indicator of the desire to de-escalate the conflict. The real breakthrough in the implementation of the Minsk agreements is the step-by-step implementation of all the points, the withdrawal of weapons on the entire contact line, the release of the “gray zone”.
The current president of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, on the eve of the early parliamentary elections, cannot ignore electoral requests for peace. And for the sake of obtaining votes, voters in the South-East are forced to imitate some steps.
Everything that is happening is an attempt to get electoral dividends for the party “Servant of the People”, which today is a freak-project. In total, only the process of oligarchic consensus has been implemented. Because through majority districts, the location of people in the lists clearly traced the line of a certain agreement of a group of oligarchs who are now trying to realize their political ambitions through this party.
It is also very significant that it became known about the detention in Donetsk of the Ukrainian sabotage group, which, on the instructions of the 5th directorate of the SBU counterintelligence department, was preparing attacks against high-ranking commanders of the DPR army. Is optimism about the alleged progress in the peaceful settlement of a military conflict appropriate in such conditions? The question is rhetorical.