UKIP, Brexit and which out group to back
The other day I was talking to two friends, one asked if “anyone else had noticed that the hype around Nigel Farage Farage had in a way ‘fizzled out’, and that he had been covered a lot less in the media, which upon reflection would reflect upon Brexit.” The other agreed, suggesting that “UKIP had peaked”. Well people were saying "UKIP had peaked" before their outright victory in the EU elections of 2014 so we should be careful about counting our eggs…
The reason why it might appear that UKIP has peaked is because they are no longer getting attacked in the media, which was in accordance with the aim of the media in the run up to the election last year i.e. to discredit UKIP and make them look like a bunch of bigots and racists - it clearly worked! However let us not be downhearted about this, UKIP was never the best organisation as it was not as strong on certain points as we would have liked and to be fair one of the criticisms of the party, that it only focuses on one or two policies is largely true.
Look at UKIP as the organisation that brought the immigration debate into the mainstream and triggered this referendum on the EU, and in that regard both Nigel Farage and the party have been extremely successful. Furthermore, the fact that UKIP and Nigel Farage are not in the spotlight at the moment are a huge boon for us, this means that it is less easy for the Out campaign to be smeared with affiliations of racism and bigotry along with xenophobia. I am not saying that it won't happen, because it is, but because of Nigel Farage's focus on the grassroots campaigning and keeping a lower profile, it will have less of an impact.
In my opinion we need to back Leave.EU funded by Aaron Banks (funder of UKIP) and Grassroots Out over Vote Leave who have stated that they will not enact Article 50 immediately upon a successful out vote. I say this because getting the public involved, showing that there is a presence at the bottom and connecting with real people rather than appearing distant, aloof and connected with the Westminster elite, will give a much better chance come 23rd June. I also say this concerning a warning by the managing editor of Breitbart London Raheem Kassam, who in a recent Facebook post said;
“I have WARNED and warned and warned that Vote Leave is NOT campaigning for #Brexit. This is the Twitter account of its campaign director Dominic Cummings who today admitted when we vote to leave he does NOT want to invoke article 50 to actually leave, but rather to hold "informal talks" on our membership with the EU. Make sure everyone knows about this. Grassroots Out is the only way out.”
A final point is that all of the 'Out' groups only impact upon policy in that the Tories (as the current government) choose to accept their suggestions. It will be up to Cameron (or possibly Osborne) after a 'Leave' vote to negotiate. So he can choose to accept any deal that his poor negotiating skills allows. Also means the 'Out' camp can push various options though, even if a mirage.
Food for thought.