May has retained the post of prime minister, but lost Britain
Brexit fever in the UK continues. On Wednesday, December 12, Prime Minister Theresa May spoke to the House of Commons of the British Parliament and answered sharp and uncomfortable questions. The meeting was very nervous: members of the House literally shouted at Mei, waved their hands, criticized her for the current course of leaving the country from the EU.
The prime minister fastened and remained firm, stating that she would fight to the end, and Brexit was in line with the wishes of the people. In this statement, it was possible to discern a hint that if party members send May to resign, the will of the people is allegedly not fulfilled. But May was lucky, she didn’t get a vote of censure and kept her post.
However, this decision, in fact, did not change anything. Britain has the same Brexit agreement with the EU, which literally has been criticized by all the political circles of the kingdom, and which will be almost impossible to approve in parliament. Hope could give the EU a decision to revise it, but Brussels has already stated that there will be no changes, which means that May is not supported there either. What is waiting for Britain now?
May won an uncomfortable chair
The decision made by the Tory party on Wednesday night means that May remains the leader of the Conservative Party and retains the post of prime minister. The decision was made by simple majority. 200 out of 317 conservatives in parliament voted for May, although 158 votes were enough for the prime minister to win. Now, May also received immunity from repeating this procedure for a period of one year.
In order to understand the causes of the new British political fever, it is necessary to understand the reasons for the question to May by the conservatives. Of course, the whole thing шы фищге Brexit. The intention to pass a vote of censure for the prime minister did not occur overnight.
In November, May was able to push through the extremely uncomfortable and controversial agreement with the EU on Brexit through the government. Some conservatives were outraged by this.
However, on Monday, December 10, Theresa May rescheduled a vote in parliament on an agreement with the EU about Brexit. This was the last straw in the patience of opponents of the premier within her own party, and by Wednesday morning the necessary 48 letters of deputies were collected, and the procedure for issuing a vote of censure began.
May herself, after the announcement of the results of the voting, presented the incident as an incredible victory, as if the question of Brexit had already been fully resolved with the European Union, and Britain was boldly striding into a bright future.
The prime minister also promised to go to Brussels at the European Council meeting on December 13 in order to achieve better conditions for Britain for Brexit. She acknowledged that the issue would concern the border with Northern Ireland.
May remains, problems remain
The British press today is actively discussing the past vote. For most media, the tone is not at all optimistic, as it could be if May were really pinned on serious hopes.
At the root of such a reaction are all the same old problems - extremely favorable for the EU conditions for the exit of Britain, to which May had previously agreed. this angered even Prime Minister’s party members, not to mention Labor opponents.
Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbin said that a vote of noconfidence in May best demonstrates the crisis of the conservatives and their split, and if this event occurred within the party, then it really did not change anything outside of it.
His advice to May is to transfer the agreement on the Brexit to the House of Commons so that parliament can regain control over divorce from the EU. Of course, Corbin noted that Labor is ready to replace the Conservatives at the helm of the country in order to produce the Brexit, which is the most profitable for Britain.
Laborists and conservatives also said that May’s victory in this vote ensured her promise not to stand as a conservative leader in the next 2022 general election. So May got another chance.
So, May gained the trust of party members, a third of whom still opposed her. There are two reasons for this - the desire to delay the resounding end of all British hopes for a profitable Brexit and May’s consent to leave completely, no longer claim any leadership in the Conservative Party, much less for the post of prime minister.
May will already go to Brussels today to ask for mercy and give favorable conditions for Brexit. At the same time, we remember that Angela Merkel has several times clearly stated: there is nothing more to talk about, there is already an agreement, and it was born in terrible negotiating torments.
Especially since May made a serious mistake - she pushed through the approval of this document in her government. When they learned the content of the agreement, they were amazed. Therefore, it is quite logical that May on Monday just was afraid to put the document in this form to a vote in parliament.
What is so bad about this agreement? The most important thing is the terrible conditions for Britain, under which it will leave all European institutions from March and lose the right to vote. However, during the transition period, the country must remain a member of the EU customs union and strictly comply with its conditions. That is, Britain will have no more rights, and there will be almost more responsibilities. Laborists have already said that this point is a humiliation for London, and if we talk essentially, they are right.
This means that May in negotiations with the EU simply failed the main thesis of Brexit supporters - about the economic independence of Great Britain. While remaining a member of the customs union, Britain will not be able to conduct independent trade negotiations, set its own tariffs and, finally, independently conclude trade agreements.
May's second big mistake is the Irish question. The prime minister agreed with the opinion of Brussels that until the issue of the border on the island of Ireland, Northern Ireland, which is a part of Britain, is resolved, Brexit will remain in the European Union already after. And it smells like a split within Britain and a resumption of Irish extremism. London then even have to put customs posts, and in fact - another state border between Britain and Ireland in its entirety.
According to the 1988 Belfast Agreement, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland does not exist, for Britain along with Northern Ireland, like the Republic of Ireland, are members of the EU. Now the situation may change.
May’s third mistake lies in linking the first two errors together. In order to "how to" solve the question of the border in Ireland right now, May concluded the so-called backstop agreement with the EU. It assumes that until 2021, Britain will not leave the customs union, so as not to "substitute" Northern Ireland.
Now - attention: the main thing. May agreed in the agreement that if the issue of the border is not resolved, Britain will remain a member of the EU customs union forever. With the above consequences in the form of the absence of any rights.
May will now have to go to Brussels, where no one will be happy to revise these fundamental principles of the Brexit agreement. In its current form, it is extremely profitable for the EU and completely unprofitable for London. In the event of the failure Britain will exit the EU according to a tough scenario - without any agreement at all. And this means enormous damage to the economy: the country will lose up to a million jobs, the pound sterling will be devalued, inflation will rise, transportation and trade problems will begin, the whole of the kingdom’s GDP will hit.
The chances of a positive outcome are almost zero.