Erdogan sent troops to Syria. What's next?

09.10.2019

For more than a year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to defeat Kurdish militants in northeastern Syria. But every time something bothered him. Either the White House’s empty promises to jointly create “security zones” beyond the Euphrates River, or Donald Trump’s direct threats to “devastate the Turkish economy”.

 

The Turkish Armed Forces, together with the Syrian National Army, just launched against PKK/YPG and Daesh terrorists in northern Syria. Our mission is to prevent the creation of a terror corridor across our southern border, and to bring peace to the area.

 
 
 
Why is Turkey conducting a third operation in Syria?
 
The main reason for Turkey’s invasion of northeastern Syria is that these areas along the entire Turkish border control the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDS). This structure was created by the United States to combat ISIS).
 
Since 2014, in the battles against terrorists, the SDS has occupied vast territories beyond the Euphrates River and captured the city of Raqqa, not hesitating to expel the local Arab population from there.
 
The SDS is based on the Kurdish People’s Self-Defense Forces (YPG), which is of concern in Ankara. The fact is that the YPG is nothing more than a continuation of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Syria.
 
The PKK seeks to create Kurdistan, a state for 30 million Kurds. Turks fought with the PKK for more than three decades. Although the Syrian Kurds and YPG did not talk about the desire to secede from Syria, such a threat still exists. Turkey is panicky afraid of the combined efforts of the PKK and YPG. Ankara considers both organizations terrorist, as they pose a threat to the unity of the country.
 
Operation Peace Spring was made possible by the decision of Donald Trump. The American president recently announced that he would no longer intervene in the Turkish-Kurdish conflict, and pushed his troops south of the Syrian-Turkish border. Thus creating a corridor about 30 km wide for the invasion of Erdogan’s troops.
What gives the operation of Turkey
 
This is not the first military campaign of Erdogan in Syria. In 2016-2017, he knocked out ISIS from a narrow strip on the Turkish-Syrian border in the Azaz-El-Bab-Jerablus region (Euphrates Shield).
 
The following year, he drove the YPG out of one of the Kurdish cantons of Afrin ("Olive Branch"). If the current operation succeeds, then the Turks will take control of a narrow strip along the entire Syrian-Turkish border.
 
It should be clarified that the territory does not depart to Turkey - the armed opposition from the Syrian National Army (SNA) created under the auspices of Ankara will dominate in the conquered lands. The latter does not recognize the legitimacy of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and demands his resignation.
What will happen to the Kurds
 
They have four options. The first is to get US support. The Americans in the territories controlled by the SDS beyond the Euphrates River dozens of bases and thousands of military. But Trump Kurds "leaked."
 
At today's request from the SDS to the Americans to introduce a no-fly zone or, in other words, “save us from Turkish aviation,” the Pentagon answered with an order not to engage in combat on the side of the SDS, if this leads to graters with the NATO country of Turkey.
 
The second option is to ask for help from Russia and Assad. The latter has already stated that he is ready to make contact with the Kurds. However, the condition for such contact is for the Kurds to recognize the power of Damascus. The Russian Foreign Minister has repeatedly blamed the United States for trying to break Kurdistan from Syria, and the Assad government called the YPG terrorists. At the time of writing, the Kurds did not respond to a request from Smolensk Square.
The last option is to run. So far, only ordinary citizens are running. But, if the SDS does not receive outside support, they will have to flee. Perhaps now they are waiting for the reaction of the USA, EU and Russia.
 
Trump can stop Erdogan
 
RSMD expert Kirill Semenov believes that the Pentagon may prevent Erdogan from completing the case.
Russian interest
 
If we talk about the position of Russia, it is interested in Syria being preserved as a single state. The ideal option is to transfer all Zaevfraty under Assad’s control. However, there are two main obstacles to this - the presence of American troops there and the reluctance of the Kurds.
 
In such a situation, Moscow has no choice but to put up with the Turkish operation.