Empty Threat: Why Trump Cannot Destroy Iran
President Trump is scaring Iran with extermination, but these are just another threats that Tehran has not been afraid of for a long time, since the United States does not have real possibilities to destroy Iran. Especially when Russia stood up behind its southern neighbor and ally in Syria
US President Donald Trump, after Russia's categorical refusal to retreat from his Iranian ally, once again threatened an independent independent Iran with destruction.
This is simply amazing: Trump on Twitter threatens that the United States will destroy Iran if it attacks “on something American”: probably, if Iran again brings down the spying drone or attacks the American ship that has consciously entered its territorial waters. Or if Tehran will again be assigned some provocation organized by the Americans, Israelis or Saudis, like imitations of attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Or maybe Iran will “intervene” in the American elections, frighten financial speculators with something and thus make an “attack” on American investors? What is the scope for imagination!
Well, to emphasize how "stern" he is, the US president added: "No more John Kerry and Obama!" Trump had in mind that they allegedly condoned Iran by concluding an international nuclear deal with him in 2015, from which Trump unilaterally and with scandal brought the United States in 2018, which put it on the verge of collapse. Because at the same time, Washington took steps to punish countries that are still ready to abide by it, and not only Iran.
Trump had previously periodically threatened to destroy Iran. So, on May 19 of this year, he wrote on Twitter that if Iran wants to fight, this will be its official end.
Why is this impossible?
Always uniting in front of an external threat, Iran, the overwhelming population of which the United States hates, is a far stronger enemy than Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. At that time Iraq was a divided country, the Shiite majority of whom were hostile to the ruling Sunnis, and minorities, especially the Kurds, dreamed of weakening the central government and creating their own administration. Even Saddam’s generals were potential traitors, which became apparent in 2003, when the Iraqi army, roughly equal in number to the invading forces (375 and 309 thousand, respectively), practically did not resist. In the face of Iran, Americans have a completely different, much more motivated enemy.
In addition, the “War in the Gulf” of 1990-1991, for which the Americans and their allies gathered the 700 thousandth army, as well as the invasion of Iraq in 2003, had in a sense their justification: the punishment of a cruel dictator.
Iran’s natural patronage of foreign Shiites, assistance to its few allies like Damascus, as well as the intention to develop the nuclear industry and even acquire nuclear weapons for security are not the banner by which Washington, Tel Aviv and Riyadh will be able to assemble a large anti-Iranian coalition for the war . In the end, both Pakistan, and India, and for a long time already Israel, who is unofficially in the club of the leading nuclear powers, has nuclear weapons, and this does not bother anyone.
Washington recently announced plans to send 120,000 troops to the Middle East to counter Iran.
But there are very big doubts that before the presidential election Trump will find the means and decide on this most complicated logistics operation, not to mention the war. Where will the Americans find so many soldiers? And this is when they have so many problems with Russia in Europe, with China in East Asia, with Venezuela in Latin America, in Afghanistan, with Turkey. Even on its long southern border, which is stormed by hundreds of thousands of Latin American migrants bursting into the US. Only a madman can arrange a war in the Persian Gulf in this situation, which, despite NATO membership, will not be supported by any major European power except Britain, and also Israel, in conditions when Saudi Arabia is bogged down in Yemen and the UAE does not have strong armed forces.
It is also clear that the only possible theater of hostilities can be only Iraq, which has a land border with Iran, because the landing operation on the Iranian coast cannot be done to Americans. Military operations in Iraq, the majority of whose population is Shiites embittered by Americans, do not promise any laurels to Washington. Therefore, the United States really has no choice but to try to inflict pinpoint attacks on Iranian military, industrial and nuclear facilities, at the risk of provoking Iranian asymmetric responses throughout the Middle East and beyond. Iran - Syria is not squeezed almost from all sides by the enemies. Therefore, these answers will be painful. There are no real benefits to President Trump on the eve of the presidential election of 2020, the chances of winning that without him are very high, it does not promise.
What makes Trump angry?
Therefore, it is not so much the threat of Trump to punish Iran that is important, but the reason that caused it. At first glance, these are the expected responses of Iran to the emergence of new American sanctions against its political and military leadership, the latest American provocations. For example, the assumption by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani that the Trump administration "has embraced mental disability." Or the announcement by Tehran of the Central Command of the US Armed Forces (CENTCOM) as a “terrorist organization”, and the USA as a state as a “sponsor of terrorism,” with which it is difficult for any person to disagree.
However, the usual for American-Iranian relations skirmish in the style of “you are a fool - no, you are a fool” hardly explains the colossal irritation that swept Washington about Iran, which Trump relayed on his Twitter account. And the point is not, or rather, not only that Iran had an effective air defense system that could easily knock down a spy drone worth $ 222 million, which seemed to be out of reach to the Americans, which immediately raised the question of the price of the planned US strikes on Iranian military facilities. In this connection, Trump had to cancel them at the last moment, ostensibly under the pretext that as a result of American strikes, 150 people would die on the ground, and confine to cyber attack. Who would believe that Trump suddenly felt sorry for some Iranians?
No, the main reason for the presidential anger is different: he was reported on the results of the two-day talks in Jerusalem by the heads of the Security Councils of Russia, the USA and Israel, which were largely devoted to Iran and its policies in the region. For the US, it seemed, there remained a small chance of success, if Russia had receded from Iran. At one time it might even seem that there was such a chance.
Earlier this year, one of the deputy foreign ministers of Russia, in response to a question from an American television channel, whether Iran is an ally of Russia, said that it would be wrong to say this: it’s just that both countries are working together in Syria in the fight against terrorism. Recently, however, Russia's position on this topic has become completely unequivocal.
The Secretary of the Russian Security Council told his interlocutors in Jerusalem, among whom was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “Iran has been and remains our ally and partner, with whom we are consistently developing relations both bilaterally and in multilateral formats.” Patrushev warned that "any attempts to present Tehran as the main threat to regional security, and especially to put it on a par with terrorist groups are unacceptable for us."
The head of the Russian Security Council dismissed Washington’s claims that Iran had shot down an American drone in international airspace and that Iranians had organized provocations with tankers. Patrushev also proposed a number of measures to avoid Israeli strikes against Hezbollah troops, which Russia does not consider a terrorist organization, in Syria.
And before that, the president of Russia himself, commenting on the possibility of a “deal” with the United States and Israel on the withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria, said: “We do not trade with our allies, our interests, or our principles. You can negotiate with our partners about solving various problems. ”
Thus, in Washington it has finally become clear that Russia not only will not retreat, but also help Iran to withstand the American threats, and that the United States has no chance to win the “Gulf War” 2.0. This is the main reason for the surge of Trump's anger and his threats to destroy Iran. He himself needs time to come to terms with the fact that these are empty threats.