The tragedy over the Black Sea: theories and analysis


On the morning of December 25th, the Russian defence force Tu-154 aircraft fell down into the Black Sea after takeoff from the airport of Adler .


There were 92 people on board. Among them there were 9 journalists, 64 musician of the Alexandrov Ensemble, armed forces and the head of the humanitarian NGO Spravedlivaya Pomoshch (Russian for Fair Aid or Fair Help), Elizaveta Glinka.

They were sent to the Latakia air base in western Syria to congratulate Russian forces with the upcoming holidays and to support them in the difficult conditions of carrying out their duty. Elizaveta Glinka also repeatedly participated in different humanitarian operations.

The main theories of investigators

A government commission headed by Russian Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov is considering two main theories for this accident: technical failure or a pilot error. However, there are a lot of questions concerning hem. First of all, the Tu-154 is one of the most reliable aircraft in history: of 1,041,000 flight hours there is one accident. In comparison with the Boeing 737 with one crash per 507,500 flight hours, it occurs half as often.

There aren’t also any preconditions for an incident, despite the age of the aircraft it is properly maintained, which is necessarily carried out by the Ministry of Defence.  The qualification of pilots of the Russian Defense Ministry doesn’t cause any doubts either. Moreover, the weather at the period of the takeoff was good, the visibility was clear.

Act of terrorism

The theory of an act of terrorism is not completely swept aside, but is not also considered as a priority.

However, this theory can not be excluded because of the extremely dissatisfied influential circles of the global financial elites and the outgoing US administration, with the Russian Air Forces operations in Syria. This event is likely to be put on a par with the incident with the downed the Su-24 and the murder of the Russian ambassador in Ankara.