Impeachment of Dilma Rousseff stalled

Brazil's Supreme Court has admitted that the request for starting the procedure of impeaching the incumbent president is unconstitutional. This means that Dilma Rousseff cannot be removed from power according to the scenario conceived by the opposition. However, the debate will be continued in court over the course of the week and the risk of Rousseff being subjected to this procedure remains. And if an inquiry into impeachment will be supported, this would mean the immediate barring of the president from performing presidential duties during the process.

The geopolitical context

The situation in Latin America resembles the change in the political balance in the EU which occurred in the second half of the 2000s. On a wave of anti-American sentiment in 2003, Germany and France took Euro-continentalist positions and began a rapprochement with Russia. But in both countries, as a result of intensive lobbying by Washington in the next elections, Atlanticist candidates - Nicolas Sarkozy in France and Angela Merkel in Germany - subsequently came to power.

As pro-US Mauricio Macri has won in Argentina, there is an attempt to oust Dilma Rousseff in Brazil. Since Argentina and Brazil are the economic engines of Latin America, this allows for the comparison with France and Germany in Europe, respectively. 

The crisis of political ideas

These events are also unfolding against the background of a crisis of political solutions and lack of fresh ideas. If Lula da Silva succeeds in using populist rhetoric and riding the overall growth of the world economy, then Dilma Rousseff will face new problems and challenges. Old tools are not effective enough, and far from the brightest thinkers, who have been unable to propose quality alternatives, are close to the president and the Labour Party. At the same time, the country is constantly under pressure from the United States, and domestic policy has been eroded by the corruption of governmental structures and companies. In particular, the scandal surrounding the oil giant "Petrobras" jeopardizes the efficiency of the state system as a whole. At the same time, we cannot exclude deliberate provocation followed by leakage organized by an external force in order to destabilize the situation.

Two scenarios

Two possible variants of future events confront Brazil. If impeachment proceedings begin, then a wave of protests on both sides will escalate. The active external support of the opposition could plunge the country into chaos. Major strikes and riots could easily reach the major metropolises. The second variant provides for the preservation of Rousseff as president and the urgent adoption of economic and political measures. It appears that the ruling party has an understanding of where the threat is coming from. On Tuesday, the police raided the house of the speaker of the lower house of parliament, Eduardo Cunha, who initiated the impeachment procedure. Accusations of crimes have also been leveled against a number of other high-ranking politicians. Dilma, moreover, remains supported by the trade unions in Brazil. 

Final goal?

Despite political setbacks for Rousseff in recent years, her removal from the post of the president through impeachment is by and large not beneficial for the country. Brazil has launched a number of long-term processes including cooperation within BRICS. They do not yield quick results, but they may be of strategic importance to the future of Brazil.

Another important upcoming event will be the Summer Olympic Games in 2016 in Rio de Janeiro. In addition to the role of Brazil in organizing it and the economic impact of the games, these will be the first Olympic Games in history to be held in Latin America.

The only beneficiaries of the Brazilian crisis are the United States and supranational instruments such as the World Bank and the IMF, as they are seeking to immediately take advantage of the situation and penetrate the country with their programs.