Success of the European Eurosceptics — what’s next?
The European level
Since only 140 of the 751 MEPs are Eurosceptics, the results of the European elections will not entail a disruption of European institutions. This low number will certainly not allow them to significantly influence the decisions of the Assembly, particularly in light of the fact that they are divided between those who are allies of the National Front and those who, like the British UKIP, refuse to forge an alliance with Marine Le Pen. However, even this modest number implies that the continent’s patriotic movements have come out stronger. The two parliamentary groups which should be created in the coming days will be able to influence certain Parliamentary decisions, and in any case let the voice of the people be heard.
As for EU in general, the most tangible risk of upheaval comes from the United Kingdom, where the party of Nigel Farage, who supports his country’s withdrawal from the European Union, won, forcing Prime Minister David Cameron to promise to advance the date of the referendum. Besides, the latter has threatened to leave the European Union if Jean-Claude Juncker is elected President of the European Commission and replaces José Manuel Baroso.
This threat is being taken very seriously by Europe’s leaders, as the United Kingdom has always been hostile to European integration: it is not part of the Eurozone, and the results of the European elections have confirmed that many Britons reject the European Union. Under these conditions, the referendum on leaving the EU which has long been promised by David Cameron is likely to conclude with one of the EU’s most important states leaving its ranks. This perspective would probably be able to implode the European Union, which would certainly come out much weaker. This risk is one of the major concerns of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose country backs the maintenance of Britain within Europe, as pointed out by the information site 7sur7.
Beyond the earthquake that would cause the exit of the United Kingdom from the Union, the success of the patriotic parties in the European elections has allowed for the strengthening of links between European patriotic parties. These must unite across the continent and form a sort of Holy Alliance, which would the only group that could make the return to a Europe of many nations possible. This Europe of the people and of nations would substitute technocratic Europe with a more traditional European civilization; it would promote Christianity within Europe, which has until now been dominated by the LGBT lobby. It must ally with Vladimir Putin’s Russia in order to create a version of Europe that stretches from the Atlantic to the Pacific.
The end of the two-party system in France
A priori, it seems that the two-party system that has ruled French policy since the beginning of the Fifth Republic, which was desired by General de Gaulle in 1958, has been shattered by these European elections. Henceforth, three political forces will be able to share the French electorate. These three forces, the National Front, the UMP and the political Left (the Socialist Party, Greens and Front of the Left), can be divided into two blocks that actually organize political life. The National Front, on one side, is a patriotic party and the defender of the French identity and of European civilization, whereas the UMP and the Left, on the other side, agree on all major topics: immigration, integration with the European Union, Atlanticism, economic liberalism and social and moral libertarianism.
In this context, the National Front happens to be the only force that opposes the dominant system, and happens to be the remedy for all of those that feel left behind by the dominant order. So the relative weakness of the National Front at the European level (which will nevertheless possess a parliamentary group of about forty members), will mainly be offset by its weight at the national level.
For indeed, in light of the forthcoming French elections (cantonal and regional elections in 2015) and especially the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2017, the National Front will become the center of gravity of French political life. If the conservative and liberal right (UMP) does not want to be succeeded, it must urgently change the dominant discourse that is at risk of breaking out between: the centrist current, led by Alain Juppé, and figures that are close to former president Jacques Chirac and his right wing, who are more and more amenable to an alliance with the National Front. If the UMP does not take into account the rightward shift of the electorate and its identity and patriotic expectations, it could suffer a crushing defeat in the next election. The political Left finds itself in the same impasse: having lost out on the working class vote for years, it is also losing the vote of the increasingly important Muslim community, due to its pro-gay politics.
In this context, Marine Le Pen can more than ever be seen as a remedy for the increasing dangers and loss of sovereignty of France.