Turkey is provoking real war with Syria and Russia

Provocations to come

On November 25th, Turkish military forces shelled Syrian territory. Turkey is trying to provoke Syrian a response in order to claim it is “an aggression”.

This will be a pretext to start Turkish military operations in Syria. Turkey is fully preparing for the invasion at present, concentrating forces near military border.

The defense of Syrian Turkmen, and eliminating the source of corrosive Kurdish separatism, is likely to be said the reason for the war. However, the real aims are otherwise.

Geopolitical reasons

It is very probable that the conflict, with direct or indirect Russian participation, will lead Turkey to close the Turkish Straits. According to the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits Turkey, has the right to close the straits in the case of war or, if Turkey considers itself be threatened by a real danger of war.

It the case of closing the straits, this will disrupt the maritime means of cooperation between Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean and the main bases of the Black Sea Fleet. It will damage the Russian operation in Syria, and will raise existing Russian-Turkish confrontation to the level of real war.

The main reason for the escalation of the conflict is to start a new war against Russia and strengthen Atlanticist dominance, using the method of “divide and conquer” against those powers positioned contrary to it, such as Russia.

The Russians will be entrenched in internal and external conflicts, and will start their campaign in a losing position.

Turkey will be weakened by the conflict, and will become more depended on the US and its western allies.

The beneficiaries will be Atlanticist West.

The Position of Europe

After the start of the recent Russian-Turkish confrontation, European countries tried to stay to the side, preferring neutrality. But the results of new EU-Turkey summit show that this tendency is brought to an end. The acceleration of the process of Turkish EU-integration has been imposed on the EU by the Atlanticists. The summit showed that Turkey has the support not only of the US, but European countries too.

As it was in the Crimean War in the 19th century, Russia becomes more and more isolated and alienated, and as it was in the Crimean War, Turkey is not the main player in this game.