What should Trump do to win the congressional elections and avoid impeachment

19.10.2018

The “end of the world” for US President Donald Trump may come much earlier than for many others. On November 6, the midterm congressional elections will be held in the United States, which are closer in meaning to the presidential elections, and even surpass them in drama. On this day, 35 out of 100 senators, all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 39 governors will be re-elected. According to polls, Democrats have very good chances to take control of the House of Representatives and, possibly, the Senate of the US Congress.

To get the lower house of parliament, they need an additional 25 mandates. In the upper chamber, although it will be more difficult to do there, just a few. Currently, there are 51 Republicans in the Senate, 47 Democrats, who are supported by two more independent senators. In case of equality of votes for Republicans, the chairman of the Senate, US Vice President Michael Pence votes. How fragile now the advantage of the Republicans in the Senate, showed a recent dramatic story with the approval of a new member of the Supreme Court, Brett Kavanaugh - after long disputes and hesitations, he was appointed to this most important post in the American system by 50 votes to 48.

It is clear that after the midterm elections, the situation in the Senate will not be better for Trump's party. But worse can be, and even very. If the Democrats manage to crush both chambers, they will be able to almost automatically proceed to impeach Trump, whom they hate with all their hearts and for everything, although in many respects unfair. And they are likely to start it, even if they receive only the House of Representatives.

All public opinion polls consistently give democrats a significant advantage. And the point here is not only in Trump's peculiar personality, but also in the fact that it is usually the opposition party that performs better in the midterm elections, since some voters already have time to give up on the winner of the previous elections.

There will be surprises

The dynamics of the figures obtained as a result of the polls is such that as the elections approach, the Republicans somewhat improved their positions. However, since mid-October, the ratings have found stability, and Trump will need something extraordinary to try to turn the tide in their favor before the mid-term elections. Although, of course, the Democrats, behind whom there are influential global circles, also certainly prepared their own surprises for Trump. The Fed, for example, has already set footboards for the president. American exchanges also suspiciously blinked. The Democratic Party will certainly try to knock his trump card out of Trump’s hands on the days remaining before the re-election - a revival in the economy. Or at least cast doubt on his achievements in this area.

On September 26, the Fed raised the base interest rate by 25 basis points to 2-2.25%. The US President is greatly dissatisfied with this, fearing a negative effect on the national economy, but he cannot do anything.

There are generally big doubts that a good economic situation will greatly help Trump. Since, according to a number of serious experts, the determining factor for voters will not be this at all, not even an improvement in the employment situation, but an attitude towards Trump's personality, to the demonization of which enormous forces and means are thrown, and the person himself is not ideal.

Of course, Trump expresses on-duty optimism about the prospects of the Republican Party that she will manage to retain most of the seats in both houses of Congress, and he himself - this is completely from the world of fantasy - will be re-elected in 2020. According to him, after the election of Cavanaugh, "Republicans are full of energy," the party is working on success in the economy, so "we will show good results." However, even Trump does not rule out that the Republicans will lose control over the House of Representatives, with the result that in the next two years he will have to contend with a "group of haters" opposed to him and his policies.

The problem for Trump is that even if by some miracle the Republicans manage to retain the Senate, their advantage will be one or two votes there. And since some Republican senators are very critical of Trump, they can easily agree with the Democratic House of Representatives. Some Democrats have already said that if their party gains control of the lower house of parliament, they will launch the trump impeachment procedure, start investigating his financial affairs and activities as president in general, since Trump’s many steps and decisions genuinely anger the democrats.

Everything is ready for impeachment

It should be noted that the Democrats are already ready to impeach Trump. The activities of Special Prosecutor Robert Muller are not only not curtailed, but they have not even come close to their peak. His investigators have already “broken down” several individuals from Trump's inner circle, who, under the threat of prolonged imprisonment, are ready to provide “compromising evidence” against the president in connection with his “Russian connections”. On this score, Muller wants to interrogate Trump himself. On the advice of his lawyers, he shies away from personal interrogation, so as not to blurt out too much. In this regard, Trump's chief attorney, ex-mayor of New York, Rudi Giuliani, discusses with Müller’s people a list of questions for questioning his boss. Trump ponders whether he should pardon his former employee, lobbyist Paul Manafort, who is served as a kind of liaison between Trump and the Kremlin.

In order for this “merry-go-round” to begin to turn, all that is needed is the Democrats' control over Congress. Meanwhile, in the event of failure in the midterm elections, the leadership of the Republican Party will turn away from Trump. They do not need a president who causes strong negative emotions in the Americans in order not to get stung in the 2020 elections. Even the powerful pro-Israel lobby will not be able to help Trump. Because everyone around him loves Israel and is ready to help the Jewish state in every way.

Vice-President Pence, a good American conservative without quirks who, in case of impeachment of Trump, will become president, is no less a friend of Israel than the current owner of the White House. And he will be much more acceptable figure for the Republican Party, so as not to "burn" in the next election. The legacy of Trump, who has done a lot of good for Americans, will look even better without him.

Can something save Trump?

So what should Trump do to avoid the worst, get around the Democrats at the finish line and see at least one full term in his chair in the White House?

In fact, he has only one way to do this: a sharp foreign policy aggravation. Announce completely draconian anti-Russian sanctions or urgently arrange somewhere a small victorious war, so that in an explosion of patriotism - the Americans usually maintain their power - to maintain control over Congress.

But in the latter case, Trump should overcome one very significant obstacle - his cautious Secretary of Defense "Mad Dog" - James Mattis. In clear text, Trump asks him to leave this post, stating - and now it is clear why - that he is a "kind of democrat." But so far nothing is happening. And if it doesn’t happen, then after November 6, Trump will need foreign policy adventures — and one after the other — so that he will not be “eaten” in the White House, mercifully given to see out his term. The choice here is quite small. And Trump can really do very little to survive politically.