U.S.: Trends and Forecast for 2016


Degradation of hegemony

In 2015, the United States demonstrated an increasing inability to offer a global scenario of a world order. In contrast to the mid 20th century, the current political elites are unable to offer any project, either within the state or in the international arena. Many signs point to the dismay of Washington and a significant narrowing of the horizon of their plans. Only immediate problems are solved. All their efforts are thrown out to save their weakening hegemony by exporting chaos. The US still has sufficient military, economic and political power to destroy any alternative projects. However, the crisis of the liberal model and the ideological deadlock of the West led by Washington, clearly shows the inability to offer a new global project.

Delaying the final crisis

The decay of hegemony is not an event, it can be called a process or tendency. In 2015, this process accelerated. This is evidenced by the increasing chaotization of the world system. Conflicts that began in previous years have not been resolved, while new ones appeared and solutions are also unlikely to be found in the current coordinate system. A clear example in this case is the growing instability in the Middle East, which began with the events of the "Arab Spring" and developed into a full-scale war in the region, drawing in more states to it. It is important to understand that most conflicts in the region have been created or provoked by the United States and their satellites in order to destabilize the situation.

New sources of instability

Last year, the geography of instability expanded to Europe. EU countries, which are totally controlled by Washington elites, found themselves in a situation where they were forced to accept millions of refugees from the Middle East. Often under the guise of normal or peaceful people, terrorists who are ready at any time to begin a campaign of violence against the local people penetrated into the EU. As an example: the events of November 13th in France. The discontent of the local population with the influx of migrants on the one hand, and the aggressive behavior of the refugees on the other hand (whose motivations had varied aspects), eventually led to a significant polarization of society and the growth of instability in the region. It is important to stress that the reason for this is primarily a conscious policy of Washington, aimed at further chaotization of the global system for the purpose of preserving its hegemony indefinitely.

Relations with the European Union

Washington's relations with the European Union in 2015 did not change their trajectory, but some aspects have become strongly marked. The migration crisis in Europe, triggered by the US elite who tacitly approved of it, significantly complicates the already tense social and political situation in Europe. Most of all this is reflected in Germany, the engine of present-day Europe. In general, relations on the political and economic levels are not very different from previous years: any policy decision can only be accepted by Europeans with consultation and pressure from the US side.

Trans-Pacific Partnership

In October 2015, the United States, Japan and 10 other countries in the Asia-Pacific region reached an agreement on the establishment of a new economic association - the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP), which is essentially a continuation of the expansionary economic policy of Washington, seeking any means to stop points of economic growth that have the potential to get out of the control of the hegemon. At the same time this will significantly affect manufacturers in the United States, which can not compete with the fast-growing Asia-Pacific countries that have tremendous human resources and growing technical potential. Part of the TTP is supposed to gradually reduce or eliminate duties and other barriers to the movement of goods, services and capital. The agreement involves Australia, Brunei, Vietnam, Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, the United States, Singapore, Chile, and Japan. An interest in joining the TTP has been shown by Indonesia and South Korea. It turns out that the signing of a formal agreement will be a further step towards the erosion of borders and deeper globalization, which is one of the main goals of the liberal elite.

Failed elites

Against the background of the degradation of the political elites, who are supporters of the dying hegemony, there can be seen a growing disillusionment of average Americans with the current domestic and foreign policy as well as liberal values ​​in general. Domestic disillusionment with American society and dissatisfaction with the course of the globalist elites are identified in the works of researchers like Patrick Buchanan, but in 2015 this process came to a qualitatively new level. The epitome of this phenomenon has become the figure of Donald Trump - the US presidential candidate who, to the surprise of many experts, has shown excellent results during the race so far.

Middle Americans against liberal elites

Being a dollar billionaire, and therefore not depending on financial support for his election campaign, and not belonging to powerful globalist groups like the CFR and the neocons, Donald Trump is a spokesman for the so-called "Middle Americans" - the American middle-class, typically from the smaller conservative towns and suburbs in the heartland of the country, holding onto its traditional values. In fact, Trump is an engine of the US anti-hegemony. Against the background of the degradation of the elites who led the country during the 20th and beginning of 21st centuries , the same middle class, dissatisfied with the domestic and foreign policies of Washington and liberal elites, is rising. This force is the expression of the idea of ​​multipolarity in the United States and will be leading the North-American pole of power when multipolarity is finalized.

Forecast for 2016

Failures in domestic and foreign policy

President Obama, who is finishing his second term, will not have an affect on the process of decomposition of US hegemony. The discontent of the population in the country will be stimulated by growing problems in the social and economic spheres, while in the international arena the US will continue to lose its standing against the strengthening centers of the multipolar world, primarily the BRICS countries. 2016 сan be a possible turning point in the conflicts in Yemen and Syria. It would have a negative impact on the position of the United States as a hegemonic power. The strengthening of Russia as a military power as well as China and India as economic leaders, will also affect the position of Washington. The final collapse of Ukraine is also possible, it could deprive the US of strong leverage on Moscow and the EU.

The new president

The main political event of 2016 will be the presidential elections. Despite the growing popularity of Donald Trump and the crystallization of a new political force in the country, with high probability the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton is going to win. The mechanisms to achieve this goal can be varied. Most likely, the political forces are going to consolidate all of their information resources (in the United States the vast majority of the media is in the hands of liberals and globalists), in order to discredit Donald Trump in the eyes of the public before the election. As a result, Hillary Clinton will win in a "no-alternative" election and become the first female president of the United States. She will continue representing the interests of the liberal transnational elite, hence the United States will continue to act in the same manner in which they acted in 2015.

The continuity of the course

In foreign policy, The United States will continue to pursue further chaotization of the world system. Conflicts that emerged earlier will not be solved, and will continue to evolve. New regions and states will be drawn in the zone of instability. With high probability, there will be various crises and conflicts in Europe and Central Asia. Within the US, there will be a continuation of the process of erosion of society, destruction of traditions and promotion of the liberal agenda. The aim of the actions of elites in both directions will be to maintain hegemony. Their opponents will be the poles of a multipolar world globally and "Middle Americans" inside the country.

Middle class against global elite

The actions of the political elites in the United States will lead to growing discontent among ordinary Americans, who are the core of the society and the holders of traditional US values. Despite the likely defeat of Donald Trump and his supporters in the presidential election in 2016, we can forecast the strengthening and crystallization of the middle class as a real political force in the country. This process will be triggered by regular attempts by the authorities to attack the rights and freedoms, such as the right to bear arms (the 2nd Amendment), freedom of speech and conscience. Another important factor will be the increased pressure on religious (mainly Christian) groups and traditional values ​​such as marriage and the family. The reluctance of the overwhelming majority of "Middle Americans" to be built into the system proposed by the elites, will eventually lead to the complete destruction of the vertical links in a society that is on verge of a deep political crisis. The middle class of the US will be the leading force in the North American pole of the multipolar world.