The US is to cancel Iran nuclear deal
The US is going to break the nuclear deal with Iran, which can be considered as a direct violation of international law. Will it stop Washington?
This question is clear. The so-called "Iran nuclear deal", which is also officially called "Joint Comprehensive Action Plan", was signed by six states (Russia, China, USA, Germany, France and the United Kingdom )and Tehran in 2015.
According to the agreements, Iran agreed to let the IAEA inspectors check its nuclear facilities, to allow most of its enriched uranium to be exported abroad, the Fordo fuel enrichment plant near the city of Kum to be turned into an open nuclear physics research center where there will be no installations on the enrichment of uranium. In returned, international sanctions on Iran should be removed.
The guarantor that confirmed the agreement was the UN Security Council. Now, The US wants to cancel the agreement.
He will not reassure the Congress …
After coming to power in the US, President Donald Trump began immediately to attack aggressively the deal. Many observers explained it that the new administration was rather tightly tied to Israel. This seemed paradoxical because the administration of Barack Obama appeared to be the servant of the mighty neo-conservative lobby, but in fact served the large part of Jewish there.
However, the paradox is apparent: the Obama administration served to a world-wide "bankers", network-centric structures, historically grown from the families of the Rothschilds and the Rockefellers, and Trump administration and his family has many individuals ideologically and nationally associated with Israel. And it may seem strange but the US was moving away from the concrete national state of Israel then, but now they are getting closer up to turning again into an instrument of this one state.
This is the opinion of a number of leading Russian experts on East and Israel issues. Probably, it can be considered as an obvious trend: America is moving in the direction of protecting the interests of Israel. And the majority of political experts admit it.
And all these facts have a direct connection with Iran and the nuclear deal with it. Because Iran is a deadly enemy of Israel, it is a key element in the entire complex system of national threats to Jerusalem. Watching the eternal drama in the Middle East, Israel is not, of course, the object of shedding sweet tears of love. But in general, since 1948, it managed to break and split the circle of hatred. It concluded peace on the basis of mutual recognition with some states, for instance, Egypt. It reached an implicit understanding of the community of interests due to being in the same camp with some countries such as Saudi Arabia. It managed tosh Lebanon. Someone like Iraq helped it shake the United States.
But Iran stands unshakable. It has its own position that Israel should not be. Moreover, it has the experience of a three-thousand-year-old civilization, colossal oil and gas reserves, 80 million population, developed industry and strong army. Additions to this, Israel naturally does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons in any way.
And if such an instrument as the US is at its disposal - it is also quite natural to launch it into action. And it was done. And the symbol of this is the recent announcement made by President Donald Trump that he will no longer reassure the Congress "that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is in the interests of the United States."
He announced and what will be next?
Trump’s statement got, of course, the support of Israel and Saudi Arabia (remember their conversation about the community of interests?). Iran, for its part, announced naturally that if the US canceled the deal, it would cause a completely predictable decision to return the situation to the beginning. It means that Iran will continue working on the "peaceful atom", as it has his rights to do it. And the fact that the Fordo plant at a depth of 90 meters beneath the rocky rocks will be severely damaged due to the counteractions which will be using the S-300 air defense system and ballistic missiles against Israel, so this is not Iran's concern. As well as the fact that the enrichment of uranium to a fuel level of 20% can unexpectedly grow to 96% of the level of weapons.
Kim Jong Un does his job, and North Korea's experience inspires a lot of "threshold" countries. A coup of tests and they can avoid Saddam’s fate and America will be powerless in this situation.
But everybody will get a lot of headache around this group of beautiful countries. If Iran gets a bomb, it means that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt can have their bombs: in case their economies will allow, as there is no secret how to make it. It will make definitely Israel crazy, and it's hard to exclude the fact that it can launch its nuclear charge at the same Fordo plant. Immediately, America gets behind its back. And let the planet explode because it does not offend anyone!
Actually, no one will stay to be offended ...
What can the international community do?
Tsargrad asked this question many respectable experts.
In fact: the multilateral deal is done, it received approval and guarantees from the UN Security Council. From the point of view of international law (and, incidentally, the European Union is extremely concerned about it), the current international agreement cannot be denounced by a decision of one country. It can get out of it.
At least, it would be acceptable. Of course, Iran threatened that it would also come out of it with the above-described consequences. But it is possible that it will be persuaded. Especially, if we promise that even if the US returns to the policy of sanctions against Iran, Europe will not do it, as well as Russia and China. And Russian Foreign Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov already expressed his regret about Trump's decision, along with the hope that it will not lead to the termination of the agreement.
However, It requires logically the international community to ask Washington. How to convene the UN Security Council? How to proclaim the imposition of sanctions on the United States? How to prohibit officials and all congressmen from entering the territory of Eurasia?
Experts are shrugging their shoulders. The first thing they are convinced that Trump's statement is aimed at provoking Iran to withdraw from the agreement. Then he will be only guilty of breaking the agreement, and the United States will remain all innocent. If Iran does not succumb to provocation, then Trump himself will again be "in an extremely intimate position" - as the same as with the North Korea. When you cannot retreat, there is nowhere to go forward.
Secondly, the experts believe, the position of the United States puts Europe in a very uncomfortable position. Europe does not need new tension situations in the Middle East because of the nuclear weapon. But it does not need new sanctions. France, for example, has very pleasant contracts with Tehran.
But, at the same time, no one believes that anyone in the West will dare to be outraged by US actions openly. No one dares to call a meeting of the UN Security Council, but even to say that America is not right and that it undermines the world right.
In this sense, Washington can be sure of its impunity, even if we forget about its right to veto.
The experts have different views on two things. The first is the reaction of Russia. Will it dare to take a bold and decisive step against the United States: for example, will insist on calling Security Council? And the second one: if official, international legal Washington is ready to go to the end and break the Iranian deal. Because skeptics point out that Trump already told a lot of things. And he managed to threaten, to cancel many things. However, America has made no fatal decisions on the official level yet. And, in general, if you look back, there were just more shouting and childish demonstrations.
Maybe he'll yell and calm down this time, too? When will the real US experts quietly put their forecasts on the president's table to show him what his action could affect next?
Well, we will see it the next few days ...