Is Trump’s Realistic Policy consistent with the Triumph of the Eurasian Axis in Syria?


The Obama administration's policy held stubbornly to the very end, clinging to the position of the hawks in the United States with respect to the Syrian issue, without regard for facts. This move included also confronting Russia in the Syrian field (as in most international issues), which achieved nothing but a clear American failure, and sacrificing its allies with contradictory statements which added to prolonging of the destructive Syrian war through the US support provided to the factions of the so-called "moderate opposition". These factions are fighting side by side with the groups of "Jabhat Al Nusra" everywhere in Syria, with the inability to separate between the "moderate opposition" and "Jabhat Al Nusra" (in spite of the Russian constant demand of the necessity of this step), while hindering all attempts and opportunities to reach a political compromise or solution in Syria.

The issue of the change of the US policies in Syria is not merely an American option of the new administration in the White House, as it is a necessity imposed by variables on Syrian territory, since the party, which was supported by the previous US administration (the moderate opposition), hadn't achieved the results required from it and had fallen into a stage of a slow and inevitable decline against the Syrian army and its allies. Among these is Russia, and the sound of its fighter jets became a source of safety and happiness for the Syrian people.

It seems that Trump's realistic thinking is consistent with this reality, where many expect that the arrival of Trump to the presidency in the United States will lead to a major change in US policies in the Middle East, particularly in Syria. President Donald Trump has confirmed his commitment to the foreign policy that he put forward during his election campaign, especially those concerning the Syrian crisis and relations with Russia.  Trump renewed his  refusal to fight against the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, on the account of eliminating ISIS, as he confirmed also that he would avoid confrontation with Russia in Syria.

Trump's choice of  the policy of concord and harmony with Russia on the Syrian file, will prevent access to the mass explosion of the region that no one want to see it (including the hawkish and the elite in the United States), which its effect will reach everyone without any exception.

Of course, Trump will try cooperation with Russia to resolve the crisis in Syria according to the principle of "getting out with the lowest possible losses" including the US's regional allies, and this is a complicated issue in the light of the entanglement of the issues and conflicts at the expense of whom the solution would be. He will not be able to keep the Kurdish influence in Syria as it is now, because dividing Syria is a red line for the Eurasian axis and also because of the pressure of the Turkish opposition to this Kurdish influence and thus the Kurds in Syria will be forced to accept the Syrian state.

Regarding the Turkish incursion, the solution in Syria will surely include a provision about full withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria because they are positioned now in the north of city "Aleppo", where the situation is settled in favor of the Syrian army forces backed by the Russian air force.

  1. If Trump implemented his announced policy on Syria, he will achieve some positives that the US policy have never been able to reach in the era of Obama.  The first of these positives is to stop sacrificing allies of the United States on the Syrian land,  and the loss of its credibility that she can protect them.
  2. Second, focusing efforts on fight the "Daesh" will lead to the rapid elimination of the terrorist organization that poses a threat to the entire world, and this would be considered as a step in favor of global security. 
  3. Third, understanding with Russia in Syria will achieve a balance in the new international multi-polar system without going into WWIII or cold war, which will cost the United States a lot. 
  4. Fourth, contributing to stop this war in Syria will lead to stop the growing discontent and hatred to the United States and its devastating transboundary policies.

At this level, former Rep. Jack Kingston, Trump's consultant, considered that Syria will be a huge challenge to the United States, noting that the elected president will seek to "activate all the roles, including the Arab role, and looking to Russia for the means to end the war."

The features of the US President-elect, Donald Trump, have been clarified after waves of leaks from symbols in this administration.  Contrary to the expectations, Mitt Romney, former Republican presidential candidate seems to be the luckiest to the State Department, knowing that the race is between him and the former House Speaker, Newt Gingrich.  In the Department (Ministry) of Defense, the compete is between former Senator Kelly Ayut and retired Gen. Joseph Kellogg.  The four names are like the personality and biography of Vice President Michael Pence, being non-controversial and conservative with a politically calm history, and having to the main ideas espoused by Republicans, which makes them farthest from the policy. This would require discipline, then, in order to implement Trump's policies which may be at odds with these main Republican ideas. 

Gen. Michael Flynn's name as a national security adviser has emerged. Here he would have a role in the management of intelligence and security on the one hand, and diplomacy and foreign policy, on the other hand. Gen. Flynn is a former commander of special forces in the Pentagon and the former head of military intelligence,

He came out of the service in the wake of a dispute with the Obama, after rejecting the US war in Iraq because of the environment it provided for the growth of terrorism, also he held a similar reservation on the war in Libya. His main dispute with the Obama administration was that Obama provided priority to topple the Syrian President over the priority of the war against terrorism.  In spite of the data he provided to President Obama about backing the structure of "Jabhat Al –Nusra" and indications of the birth of "Daesh" in 2014, he was ignored by President Obama prompting him to resign.  It is striking in the biography of Flynn, and from the competition with Russia, his adoption of the frank call on Russia for cooperation in the fight against terrorism, while he doesn't hide his consideration for  the Russian President Vladimir Putin, since both of them were the former military intelligence heads for their respective countries.

Trump's policy can be anticipated through his unusual speech, which includes positions beyond courageous, both intellectually and politically, from the level of his call for cooperation with Russia, and to ensure "Israel" by money and weapons, and to get out of the war in Syria and Yemen. This is part of moving towards resolution under the heading of the priority of the war on terrorism, and to reconsider the political and security doctrine of Washington, to direct it to the fight against terrorism and its risks on the American security, and to abandon the strategies of changing regimes under the pretext of democracy.

Walid Fares, who was Donald Trump's adviser for Foreign Affairs (during the campaign), revealed that there is no American project to divide Syria, pointing to the involvement of all of the Syrian forces in the negotiations, including the Kurds, to stop the nearly five year-long war.

In an interview with newspaper, Fares said: "there will be a Russian-American agreement about the solution of the Syrian crisis.  It is one of our first priorities to eliminate the terrorism of ISIS.  To eliminate ISIS and to dry the sources of terrorism is a common factor among all parties."  

"Unfortunately, the Obama administration is not serious about it, and vice versa, it allowed the emergence of ISIS and it even strengthened and supported the Islamist radical groups such as "Al-Nusra" and others.  There will be no division of any country in the world unless demanded by its people", he added.

The Guardian newspaper has said that Trump expressed his intention to end the US support to the Syrian armed opposition despite its request to him to assist them.  The Sunday Telegraph said: "Britain is facing a diplomatic crisis with the United States on Donald Trump, the US elect-president's plans for an alliance with the Russian President Vladimir Putin and to strengthen the Syrian regime" .

The question we are waiting to be answered is: will the realistic policy of Trump harmonize with the logic in resolving the Syrian crisis, which imposes the survival of Syria peacefully with a unified army and one government of the whole state? Or we will see A series of stubbornness in supporting the armed factions opposing in the Syrian state and confronting the will of the Syrian people?