Trump: A business genius or a madman?

21.05.2018

Many consider the American president to be crazy, who can unleash the Third World War. However, the tactics of threats, thanks to which Donald Trump achieves serious concessions from competitors, proves that he is a fine businessman working for US economic interests

Threats

At first glance, Trump does everything to unleash a global war. But if you consider that there is still no war, you involuntarily come to the conclusion that threats and even insignificant escalations are a clearly thought-out tactic with a very specific purpose. Threatening to bomb the DPRK, the head of the White House suddenly went on to relax, offered to meet with Kim Jong-no, and in the future allowed the lifting of sanctions and establishment of diplomatic relations. What for? To eliminate the monopoly of China in North Korea, which for the years of sanctions actually turned into an "economic colony" of the Celestial Empire.

Europe's "Punishment" 

Iran. The US is withdrawing from a nuclear deal that allowed Europe to take advantage of the Iranian gas market. Billion investments of companies from the EU were at risk of loss due to Trump's decision. Iran's openness to European business seriously threatens the American oil industry. The US is not interested in the release of Iranian gas to the European market.

Europe Trump wants to "pin down" not only because of Iran, but also because of the huge trade deficit ($ 147 billion, according to the Census Bureau), which he reminded German Chancellor Angela Merkel during her visit to the White House. Here the billionaire uses another "method" - the possibility of introducing tariffs for the import of steel and aluminum from the European Union. According to the European media, Trump is ready to make concessions to the EU if Europeans agree to increase purchases of expensive American liquefied natural gas

Determining, although not entirely economic, in the pressure on Iran are the interests of Israel, which is promoted by Trump. Released from sanctions and rich Tehran will turn into an even greater threat to Tel Aviv in the future, rather than now.

While in the Iranian issue, where billions of Eni, Total and Airbus are at stake, Europe is not inferior. Therefore, the pressure of the US administration continues. Today, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, presenting the new Iranian strategy, said that the Pentagon, together with the regional allies of the United States (Israel and Saudi Arabia), is ready to suppress any manifestations of "Iranian aggression".

Separately, it should be noted that Trump's actions provoke an increase in oil prices, creating conditions for increasing the production of shale oil in the United States. With a sharp fall in 2014, the Brent brand rose to a maximum of $ 80 per barrel. It is at this price that the extraction of American LNG becomes profitable.

Pressure on China

The last and, probably, the most urgent at the moment. China. Here, unlike Iran and the EU, the "gangster" manner of doing business is already yielding results. The problems with China are almost identical. Trump does not like the huge deficit in trade with Beijing - $ 375 billion in 2017 (data from the Census Bureau). Previously, the US imposed tariff restrictions on the import of Chinese steel and aluminum.

But through a "tariff war" Trump managed to bargain for the United States preferences. On May 20, the two countries reached a consensus, according to which they will take measures to reduce the trade deficit. China agreed to increase purchases of American goods, including agricultural products and energy. According to Reuters, Beijing agreed to reduce Washington's negative trade balance by $ 200 billion. The statement said that China "will significantly increase the purchase of goods and services from the US" in order to stimulate economic growth and employment in the United States. China also promised to amend the law on intellectual property, which protects American IT companies in China.

Has China received anything in return? Vice Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Liu He believes that the decision meets the interests of both nations. The US and China agreed on counteracting the growth of trade tariffs.

Despite the positive attitude of Beijing, by and large, Trump has achieved the main thing from China - the obligation to reduce the trade deficit.

Whether the trade war will continue, depends on the development of the situation on the Atlantic. The EU "shows teeth" and guaranteed Iran compliance with the deal.