Shutdown Ended. But For How Long?

25.01.2019

US President Donald Trump stopped the longest shutdown in the history of the country - a temporary suspension of government work. It lasted 35 days and ended in nothing: the parties did not reach a compromise

The whole world knows that the wall on the border with Mexico, which is supposedly designed to protect the States from illegal immigrants from Latin America and reduce drug trafficking, was a stumbling block. Trump wanted to get $ 5.7 billion for its construction. The Democrats, who were against the wall, categorically refused to allocate such an amount. As a result, the budget adoption process has stalled. The president did not sign a document that did not include funds for his favorite venture; Democrats, in turn, despised any compromises.

Shutdown had a dramatic impact on Trump's rating - it crawled down every day. The most painful for the American leader was the fact that he began to lose the support of even those groups who unconditionally acted on his side. Many white men and women, residents of the American province in this case, too, succumbed to television propaganda of media controlled by democrats and found that almost 6 billion on some wall somewhere far to the south is too much.

As a result, the president, it would seem, was forced to retreat. But only for a while. Now in three weeks the parties must agree. Otherwise, a new collapse may occur. Day X is scheduled for February 15th. In his Twitter, Trump wrote that the resumption of work of public institutions "in no way" was a concession:

I wish people would read or listen to my words on the Border Wall. This was in no way a concession. It was taking care of millions of people who were getting badly hurt by the Shutdown with the understanding that in 21 days, if no deal is done, it’s off to the races!

Shutdown turned out to be more expensive than the wall

As always happens in the case of bureaucratic confrontation, Shutdown was not without its comical details. The fact is that it has already risen to the States much more expensive than the hypothetical construction of a barrier at the border. As S & P Global expert Beth Ann Bovino calculated, each week Shutdown cost the country about $ 1.2 billion. 35 days is five weeks. Thus, we get 6 billion. Given the vague prospects of the parties to agree after a timeout taken by Trump, this is far from the limit.

The productivity missed in view of the compelled holidays will never be laid. In real terms, GDP will decline, since no “product” was created these days. In addition, the situation is fraught with obvious social problems. Hundreds of thousands of workers who were forced to go on unpaid leave will not receive compensation for their downtime. All this will have far-reaching consequences. As economists note, the purchasing power of the population will inevitably decrease, which, in turn, is fraught with rising inflation. At the same time, the partial cessation of government work hit the small and medium businesses the hardest.

And yet it must be clearly understood that, thanks to the structure of the American state, shutdown did not lead to complete paralysis of the entire system. Most administrative and even political decisions are made not at the level of the federal government, but at the level of individual states. And there all the budgets are adopted, and there is no question of any “suspension” of work.

The wall will be built

Immediately after Trump's announcement about stopping the shatdaunu, Sarah Sanders, press secretary of the United States, wrote on her Twitter message that after 21 days, US President Donald Trump would begin building the wall.

Such decisiveness and conviction, of course, is impressive. What will happen in reality, we will know in a month. All these details, arguments and stubbornness of the parties, in fact, can even be nice and funny. We understand that no wall will solve the problem of illegal migration to the United States from the poor Central American South. They can be solved only by a fundamental change in the US policy towards their neighbors, the refusal to exploit their human and natural resources, and the imposition of their cultural and political stereotypes. But to expect this from the current American establishment is naive.