North Korea’s nuclear missile riddle

31.08.2017

North Korea has made a new test of ballistic missiles, and quite successfully. According to Japanese authorities, a ballistic missile, flying through Japan's airspace (Pyongyang simply had no other way of testing such weapons because of the geographic location), fell into the Pacific Ocean at 1180 kilometers east of the northern island of Hokkaido. In July, North Koreans tested ballistic missiles twice, which led to a sharp aggravation of Pyongyang's relations with Washington, increased sanctions and even put the world on the brink of regional conflict. North Korea and the US exchanged threats to strike their military objects.

Japan is alarming

New testing of North Korea's ballistic missiles concerned seriously Japan, where dozens of US military bases operate, and in case of a military conflict between the United States and North Korea, the US military bases will become inevitably the targets of North Korean missile strikes, and it will be good if these missiles do not have nuclear warheads.

"We started immediately collecting and analyzing information, and we will do everything possible to ensure the safety of citizens," Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised. He held an emergency meeting of the National Security Council on this issue this Tuesday. There is no information on concrete decisions taken at the end of this meeting.

The UN Security Council will also hold an emergency meeting today on this issue.

South Korean intelligence’s preventions

Moreover, other missile tests are not the only alarming news concerning North Korea. Special services of South Korea, according to CNN, revealed Pyongyang's preparations for the next test of nuclear weapons. The National Intelligence Agency (NIS) told the South Korean deputies about it at a closed meeting. According to one of the parliamentarians who participated in the briefing, it was stated that North Korea "has completed preparations for a nuclear test in tunnel No. 2 and tunnel No. 3 at a nuclear test site in Phungery." Suspicious activity was also noted in Tunnel No. 4. North Korea has already conducted nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, 2013 and twice in 2016.

All this means that North Korea is achieving the reliability of delivery systems and is working to improve their lethal "stuffing". At the same time, Pyongyang does not pay attention to the protests of other countries that do not doubt so much the right of any country to have nuclear weapons but are concerned that it will get into the hands of an odious, completely unpredictable and uncontrolled regime.

What did Pyongyang want to demonstrate?

It is mere that Pyongyang, using a new missile launch,  wanted to show that it was not bluffing and threatening to strike at Guam, where American strategic bombers are based, and in case the conflict turns into the "hot" stage, the US will strike at the military facilities of North Korea. This threat has cooled down the United States and has reduced the tension. Now, Pyongyang has once again demonstrated that such a blow is technically quite possible. The rocket, according to preliminary information, flew about 2.7 thousand kilometers - just as much as you need to fly to Guam. By the way, that's why it was not, apparently, aimed at the area so that the US did not accept this demonstration of force for the beginning of hostilities.

One thing is clear. Therefore, let me repeat this once again: North Korea demonstrated to the whole world its desire to complete successfully a full-fledged nuclear missile-nuclear arsenal at any cost, and it thinks that it is the only opportunity to make the US and its allies respect its interests and to ensure that it was left alone.

What does Moscow think about?

The situation around North Korea amazes with its hopelessness.

As Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov honestly admitted on Tuesday, sanctions against North Korea in response to the missile and nuclear tests are not effective anymore.

"From our point of view, it is no longer possible to make decisions in the Security Council that would not contain: a) an indication that there cannot be a military solution to the problem, but only a political one, and b) a provision that would exclude additional unilateral sanctions beyond those that are taken by the Security Council, "TASS quoted Ryabkov.

According to him, Moscow is "extremely worried how the situation is developing now" and how the situation is escalating on the Korean peninsula. However, according to Ryabkov, Russia sees that this is not only North Korea’s  blame, since the recent joint military exercises with the United States and South Korea, "which were conducted as a light version compared with their original scenario, had an impact that provoked  Pyongyang to use a new launch. "

What does Pyongyang expect?

Pyongyang definitely counts on the fact that, despite its initiative irritates Beijing and Moscow and leads to frightening consequences in the form of the deployment of an American missile defense system in South Korea, Russia and China will be forced to put up with what is happening and not allow a big war happen. However, a small war, like the exchange of remote strikes, is even beneficial to North Korea, as it will ensure consolidation around it on the basis of nationalism of the North Korean society, will prove that its anti-American foreign policy is correct, turn the attention of the whole world to North Korea, and put an end to its international isolation. The only alternative to this is to bomb and starve a whole country and start a bloody conflict on the Korean peninsula, which will begin with the destruction of the South Korean capital - multi-million Seoul, located near the demarcation line.

No one will agree on this. This is possible only in one case. If the American ruling circles want to declare a default in order not to pay interests on their unsustainable debts and so as to write them off and present it as force majeure. They will say they fight for "progressive humanity," and all the costs go to it.

Putin as Cassandra

The world community is facing what the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, warned in his keynote address at the Munich conference ten years ago.

"Today we are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force - military force - in international relations, a force that is plunging the world into an abyss of permanent conflicts... We are seeing a greater and greater disdain for the basic principles of international law," Putin pointed out.

The Russian president continued: "In international relations, we increasingly see the desire to resolve a given question according to so-called issues of political expediency, based on the current political climate. And of course, this is extremely dangerous. It results in the fact that no one feels safe. I want to emphasize this -- no one feels safe! Because no one can feel that international law is like a stone wall that will protect them. Of course, such a policy stimulates an arms race. The force's dominance inevitably encourages a number of countries to acquire weapons of mass destruction"...

Putin, as we see, foresaw the current crisis around North Korea’s nuclear missile program and a possibility of appearing in such situations in other parts of the world. Unfortunately, his Western listeners in Munich did not draw any conclusions from this. Perhaps, it is necessary to have another catastrophe on the Korean peninsula, so that they will make some conclusions. Otherwise, it is impossible to teach people to think in this world.