Germany in political crisis
The negotiations between the CDU / CSU bloc, the free democrats (FDP) and the "green" on the creation of the new government of the Federal Republic of Germany collapsed naturally in Berlin.The upcoming early elections are expected to have an uncertain outcome.
In Berlin, the bloc of right-centrist parties of the CDU / CSU, the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) and irresponsible "green" collapsed the probing negotiations on the creation of a new coalition government of Germany this weekend. This means almost 100% sure that Germany will organize the re-election to the Bundestag, which will happen for the first time in the history of the country, in the upcoming months.
This is the most likely scenario: any experiments with the minority government, even if they are carried out, will be nondurable. Participants, who failed the negotiations, were not really interested in their success. And despite the many risks of a re-election, they do not seem to be against taking the risk to try to strengthen their positions after the new election. The current situation also means that Germany, whose government received the prefix of the action after the September elections in the Bundestag, has limited powers, according to the Constitution, and dropped out of European and world politics for the uncertain time. And it happened at the moment when it seemed that there was an opportunity to carry out bold reforms in the EU. Instead of this, they were postponed.
This situation also causes serious problems to the German business, which, like any other, needs political stability. As a result, transactions, requiring government approval, cannot be implemented. In business circles, nervousness and irritation are growing. Thus, the head of the Federal Association of Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Germany (DIHK), Eric Schweitzer, is afraid of a "longer phase of uncertainty", and calls the event a "disappointment" for German industrialists. He is echoed by the president of the Central Union of German Craftsmen (ZDH), Hans Peter Wollseifer, who calls the political uncertainty in the country "a poison for the economy" and believes that the country has been provided "a disservice".
Indeed, everything is unknown now in uncertain time. And it concerns even invincible Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has never been able to recover from the crisis organized by herself for the sake of the globalist elite with "refugees". Doing this, she only guaranteed the decline of her long political career. Gradually, the German people are also beginning to see. More and more Germans, despite unprecedented ideological processing, began to realize that in reality "refugees" are immigrants, who represent an alien, aggressive religion, hostile cultural code to Europeans, participate in social and parasitic jihad, who do not hide that they did not come as friends, but as enemies, the future masters of the country. The Germans are gradually coming to the conclusion that millions of migrants from the most underdeveloped countries of Asia and Africa in Germany will be used to ensure a sharply low standard of living for everyone. To do this, the government will eliminate the basic democratic rights and freedoms because of the threat of terrorism, introduce censorship and set up a police state. After that, native Germans do not recognize their native Germany, and they themselves will turn into unknown people in an alien country.
Liberals killed the talks
The probing negotiations came to a halt after the demarche of the liberals, when it became clear that the "green" did not intend to give up two issues that were principle for the party and the Bavarian CSU: the first one was the reunification of families of illegal migrants who had entered the country and had not yet received full refugee status, and the second one was climate issues, or more precisely the elimination of the use of coal in German industry, and it should be done in absolutely unrealistic terms.
The most serious one was the "refugees" issue: if the "green" (which has long been successfully manipulated by the world behind the scenes, even when it concerns environmental matters) had managed to push its position on "refugees", then, from 2 to 7 million family members - children and wives -from unknown places, and even without the documents of "illegal immigrants" would have penetrated into Germany. The Bavarian CSU actively opposed this. The leader of this regional party, Horst Seehofer, would have become a “political corpse” if he had agreed to this since half of all new "illegal" settlers in Germany would have settled in Bavaria, where native population had already begun to run away from them in neighboring countries.
The protracted negotiations began to discredit their participants. The leader of the FDP, Christian Lindner, decided to use this opportunity. He has great prospects for the future as his party and he has nothing to do with the migration crisis, support sensible economic positions, and in case of the re-election, they will have all chances to become the third most important political force in the country after the CDU / CSU and the Social Democrats (SPD).
"We would be forced to abandon our principles and what we defended, so it's better not to rule than to rule incorrectly," Lindner told reporters after the failure of the talks. He acknowledged that "the four parties do not have a common vision of the country's development and a common base of trust that would be the basis of a stable government." The politician made it clear that he understands what serious challenges Germany and Europe are facing in the future, "but if we cannot determine positions on obvious issues, then what we can tell about the future" ...
The CDU leader Merkel, tried to justify that the CDU / CSU bloc "tried to find a solution," and that "from our point of view, we achieved much that could strengthen the stability of our country, but we must operate with facts, but the fact is that we could not bring the negotiations to a successful conclusion. "
The chancellor said that she would meet with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who urged earlier to prevent a breakdown of the talks after that "we will understand how things will develop further." She promised, "to do everything to ensure that in these difficult weeks the country remained under the right guidance."
Hypocrisy of Seehofer and Ozdemir
The leader of the CSU and the prime minister of Bavaria, Horst Seehofer, reacted very peculiarly to the failure of the talks: he is very happy about this, but he tries not to show it. When Lindner did a "dirty job" for him, removing him from an “attack”, he began publicly regretting that the obvious arrangement was broken at the last moment. Seehofer cried a bit about the fact that this failure and this "deplorable situation" caused damage to Germany. And he made excuses before the business.
The "Green" also tried to pretend that they were ready to make compromises.
"The agreement could be possible if there was goodwill," the head of the "green", ethnic Turks and ultra-liberal Jem Ozdemir said. He argued that the "green" had an approach in many issues, and crossed their "pain threshold."But it did not mean anything since to agree to this or not, the party congress would decide, and not the more moderate party leaders.
Social Democrats are satisfied
As for the Social Democrats, they intend to derive maximum benefit from the current situation. They have already received political dividends and led the opposition after the elections, but they retained their ministers in the acting governor until a new one is formed. Party leader Martin Schultz said that he would not hold any negotiations with the CDU / CSU, while Merkel remained the leader of the Christian Democrats. In other words, Schultz declares that Merkel must leave, and if she decides to do so, the options are possible.
What will happen next?
The most likely scenario will be a new election within a few months or maximum six months. But according to the Constitution, it is necessary to take several steps towards it.
Firstly, the president of Germany must appoint a new candidate for Chancellor position to be voted in the Bundestag. Usually, it is the leader of the party that won the largest number of votes in the election. In this case, it will be the chairman of the CDU Angela Merkel, since the Bavarian CSU is, in fact, the regional branch of this party. If the leader of the largest party receives half of the votes (in case a coalition agreement had signed, this would have been a formality, since Merkel had received them), then she would become the Chancellor for the fourth time. If this does not happen, the parliamentarians have two weeks to elect the Chancellor from their circle, who would receive the support of the majority. If this does not succeed, the Chancellor gets the right to become a deputy with the largest number of votes. The president of Germany can appoint this parliamentarian as Chancellor, or dissolve the Bundestag and initiate a repeat election, which must be held within 60 days. By the way, in the past, the federal parliament passed three times a vote of no confidence in the Chancellor in 1972,
Both options will be a real revolution in Germany since such a thing has never happened so far: there have never been re-elections in the country, nor a minority government has ever been in power. These combinations are extremely unstable since all laws that are passed by the government must be submitted for approval by the Bundestag, where such a cabinet will not have a majority. This might paralyze the executive power. Therefore, re-elections have virtually no alternative.
Merkel became the main loser as a result of the failure of the coalition negotiations. Her migration policy was undermined by the CDU / CSU bloc in the September election. Then she failed a very important election in Lower Saxony, now, it is coalition talks. The CDU / CSU does not have a majority in the Bundestag now, and there are not enough partners to create a new government. The positions of her ally Seehofer are also weak in the CSU because of his inability to withstand the devastating migration policy of Merkel.
Does it look like an obvious sunset of the era of the current Federal Chancellor?
Meanwhile, Angela Merkel’s long-term stay caused a great damage to the political stability of Germany that even a repeat election cannot clarify the situation.
According to the latest data from surveys conducted by Forsa, Emnid and InfratestDimap, the CDU / CSU block can count on 30-32% of votes in the new election (against 32.9% in September), SPD - 20-22% (previously 20.5%) , the right party "Alternative for Germany" - 12-13% (previously 12.6%), FDP - 11-12% (previously 10.7%), "green" - 10-11% (previously 8.9%) , The Left party - 9-10% (previously 9.2%).
Thus, practically nothing will change. Unless the CDU / CSU positions get weaker further. It's amazing that the constant discrediting in the media and the splits in AdG, initiated from the outside, do not seem to have shaken the position of this party. Initially, the government seemed to expect that failing the coalition talks and frightening the Germans with the prospect of chaos in the country, they could achieve the marginalization of AdG and get better results for the CDU / CSU at its expense in the new election. But, according to the polls, this is not possible yet. In general, in the next months, the Germans will have to live in conditions of political uncertainty and Germany will not be easy to recover from it. Perhaps, this will require non-trivial solutions, including from the side of Merkel herself, who has been in her posts too long.