Forever chancellor: Merkel plans to retain the post

20.07.2017

To keep company with Vladimir Putin, if he decides to run for the fourth term, Angela Merkel needs to win in the general parliamentary elections, however,  no one doubts that her new term will be the most difficult of all.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel intends to head the country's government until 2021 if the CDU / CSU win in the September elections. She officially announced this in an interview with ARD.

"I offered  my candidacy and am going to work for four years, and I have a firm intention to do exactly as I promised people," the Federal Chancellor said before leaving for the summer holidays, after which the elections will be held.

In case she wins, no one doubts, Merkel will lead the country's government for the fourth time. Only two men - Conrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl – could do this.

Merkel will be 67 years old in 2021. According to the German constitution, there are no time limits for politicians in this post - the chancellor can be forever, and this is not considered as an infringement of democracy.

Hard decision

The migration crisis have hurt Merkel's reputation,  she even got a nickname "the Chancellor of the refugees" in the German political circles, and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and she had doubts whether  she should run for a fourth term. However, the absence of strong political heirs and the authorities' ability to convince the Germans that they are not swept away by the migration tsunami and that the inflow of migrants can be reduced and controlled, and still good economic situation of the country have convinced Merkel and the CDU leaders that it would be better not to change the situation. And only Merkel, who saidabout the "refugees": "We will handle it,"can do it.

Many ordinary citizens agree with this idea. The ratings of the Federal Chancellor fell after the start of the migration crisis, but now they have returned to pre-crisis numbers. Merkel has repeatedly stated that she wants to correct her mistakes, and that no one will do it better than her. Of course, you can argue with this, but it worked for the Germans. As well as the fact that only Merkel's political experience will allow the country to cope with difficult challenges  that she could face, especially, when the US, which have been the main ally and patron of Germany, has the new president , Donald Trump.

Now,Washington sees Germany as one of the main economic and trade competitors that parasitizes American security power, manipulates the euro and tries to subdue the EU, and in this case, the US might face with a geopolitical rival equal in power  -the Great Germany – in the future.

In this situation, even the most ordinary German understands that the leader of the Social Democrats (SPD) Martin Schultz, who is an experienced demagogue, but a politician without serious practical experience or even education, who is even more conciliatory towards migrants than Merkel, is simply not a federal chancellor. And the daughter of a pastor from  GDR, who turned into a "mother" from the " Kohl’s girl", who isa brilliant specialist in mathematics, physics and the Russian language, made her way to the political Olympus "using chances,"  and she knows how to get rid of competitors and use  pragmatism and Ideology "After us, even the deluge."

Why does Merkel have no alternative now?

However, people live today, and today’s situation is still quite good for the Germans. Therefore, according to the results of a survey of the ARD media company, the chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany is supported by as many voters today as it was before the beginning of the refugee crisis in 2015, and the gap between her and her main rival Schulz is increasing. Two-third of respondents is satisfied with the work of the Federal Chancellor and one-third of them supports her social-democratic rival.

Merkel is preparing to win the elections not only because of her personal qualities, but also because she heads the party that represents wealthy people which are most of the citizens of the country. They do not want the Social Democrats to be engaged in their usual business - use their money to support less wealthy electorate.

The election program of the CDU / CSU block entitled "For such a Germany were we live well and with pleasure" guarantees to the Germans that life will be better, life will have more fun.

Christian democrats promise to reduce the unemployment rate to less than 3% comparing to the current 5.5% in the coming years, which will help reduce expenses in budget by paying unemployment benefits, and increase revenues of  the treasury coming from  income taxes, and stabilize the pension system until  2030. They want to increase spending on science from 3 to 3.5% of GDP,  increase the child allowance by 300 euros per year, introduce special payments for families with children to purchase housing.

Germany is planning to build 1.5 million of new apartments and houses until 2021. This will help to fulfill the dream of families to have a house, when  banks refuse them  to give a mortgage or require too high interest on loans. Building of new houses will stabilize the rapidly growing prices on real estate. To stimulate the Germans to buy houses, they promise to cut out the amounts spent on the acquisition of real estate from taxes.

The income tax will be reduced for all, including for the rich, who have to pay 42%. According to statistics, 15% of the richest citizens of Germany provide 80% of all fiscal revenues after levying income tax!

CDU / CSUalso promised the Germans a gradual cancellation of the so-called "solidarity allowance" to the income tax (5.5%) imposed after the reunification of Germany to support the new federal states. It has irritated the western Germans for a long time and the Eastern Germans consider it as a inadequate one. Well, in order to protect the Germans from impudent"refugees" and "asylum-seekers", they promise to increase the number of policemen by 15 thousand, although, of course, this is far from enough.

Compared to other political parties, this electoral program is the most convincing, the most realistic and even the most fair. Although the candidate for Chancellors from the SPD party, Schulz, also calls her "frivolous, unfair and irresponsible," "cowardly," "without ideas for the future." One might think that the pre-election program of his own party, which offered to crush the rich and wealthy Germans even more in taxes in favor of their electorate - the less well-off citizens, the unemployed and yesterday's migrants – is just and there are many "bright ideas" in it.

“Black spots” on the horizon

However, not everything is so nice in the “German kingdom”, as it may seem. Three years before his fall,the French emperor Napoleon IIIadmitted in September 1867: "In the course of the last fourteen years, many of my hopes have come true, but there are black spots on our horizon."

Angela Merkel also has such "black spots" on the horizon. Her ratings and reputation are basedon the fact that recognition the Germansthinkthat they live economically better than others. However, the prospects of further German prosperity look very doubtful because of thedeterioration of relations with the US, which threaten Germany with a trade war (because it cannot compete fairly with German industry), the disintegration of the EU and the need for increasing financial support of  less successful members of the community.

Here we must understand that the Americans will not play by the rules, they use everything, including prohibited methods. They have been spying on and overhearing German politicians for decades,  they know all their secrets and will not fail to use this knowledge to discredit them, stating that this is the work of "Russian government hackers." In order to  quarrel Germany with Russia at the same time.

As President Vladimir Putin said at the press conference in Hamburg, Moscow has no reason to want to defeat the CDU / CSU bloc in the upcoming elections: Germany is Russia's largest trade and economic partner, it participates in the Nord Stream-2 project, and , refusing from nuclear energy ,it will need energy cooperation with Russia, gas supplies. But in order to disrupt cooperation in this sphere, Americans can attack Merkel "under a foreign flag" ...

The growing costs of livelihood and the integration of thousands of recent "refugees", who are lounging around in the camps, should be considered too. Most of them are dependent ("I came to Germany to live, not work"), some are aggressive. Such a huge number of foreigners, who does not know the German language, customs, and traditions, cannot integrate into a very specific German life. But even to maintain the status quo, tens of billions of euros are required each year.

Migrants arranged mass riots in the southern federal state of Baden-Württemberg almost on the day when Merkel announced her intention to remain the Federal Chancellor until 2021. In the city of Shorndorf, where the authorities settled 700 "refugees", many of whom are Iraqis and Afghans, migrants, having drunk alcohol and taking with them knives banned in Germany, decided to take part in the Swabian national holiday together with the local antisocial elements that joined them.

The result turned out to be predictable: riots, rape, clashes with police, which had to send reinforcements. The city was in the hands of youth gangs for some time. Groups of 30-50 people "asylum seekers" and a few local hooligans with knives and pugachets walked the streets and terrorized the townspeople. They were doing this with almost impunity: the police arrested only a few "refugees".

Migrants held similar actions simultaneously in two cities  -Reutlingen and Boeblingen. So they showed the burghers their power and what would await them in the future.

It is clear that this is only the beginning, and in order to cope with the threat, the authorities will not be able to imitate the measures taken, which they are still basically doing and quite successfully. The more disruptions are happening in the country, the more difficult it will be for the party of Merkel to win elections, and it will be easier for "Alternative for Germany" to catch her up.

In general, Merkel will no longer have a calm chancellery. And  there is no guarantee whether she can cope  with the challenges ahead. However,  most Germans are sure that other politicians will not get better, so let "mother Merkel" be with them.