Erdogan does not give Merkel a label for chancellorship

24.08.2017

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made an unprecedented statement to German-speaking Turks in Germany not to vote in the forthcoming Bundestag elections in September for candidates of the leading political parties of the country - the CDU / CSU bloc, the Social Democrats (SPD), and the Union of 90 / Green, since "all these parties are enemies of Turkey." This statement was announced in a speech after the Friday prayer in Istanbul on August 18.

More than 1.5 million Turks live in Germany, many of whom are German citizens, and 400,000 have also Turkish passports. They live mainly in large cities and are the only community of Muslim countries that are more or less integrated into German life and has already become its integral part, including politically. Frankfurt am Main is Germany's only city where the number of residents with foreign roots is larger than the native Germans, ethnic Turks are 13% of the population according to the latest statistics.

What Erdogan did not say, but what obviously meant

Therefore, Erdogan's words sounded very strong. Moreover, in fact, it was said much more than many could think.

German Turks, according to statistics, vote mainly for the Social Democrats. German citizens of Turkish origin vote rarely for the CDU / CSU because of their Christian past and their policies which are favorable to the wealthy part of the population, to which the majority of Turks in Germany does not belong.German Turks do not support particularly the "Green" as this party promotes its"modern values" and criticizes Ankara for dismantling a secular state in Turkey, and Ankara’s policy towards the Kurds and other minorities. Although, one of the leaders of this party is ethnic Turks and extremely aggressive towards the current Turkish president.

German Turks are not monolithic. Among them are many supporters of secular Turkey, and they do not like Erdogan. However, most of the German Turks, according to polls, support Erdogan, rather than his critics.

The other important parties that will be in the Bundestag and that Erdogan did not call as enemies of Turkey do not look attractive enough for most Turkish voters. The anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim "Alternative for Germany" (AdG) is not attractive for them too. Neither pure liberals from the Free Democratic Party (FDP) nor the Left Party, whose leading politicians often criticize Erdogan for authoritarianism, tough methods of suppressing the opposition and ethnic minorities, do not appeal to the German Turks. In fact, Erdogan’s appeal "not to support the parties that behave" wrongly "and have " anti-Islamic minds ", applies to these parties too.

In fact, Erdogan stopped a step away from calling on the German Turks to create their own political party, built on the confessional and ethnic principle, following the example of their fellows in the Netherlands. In the last elections in the Netherlands, a significant part of the local Turks and the Arabs and Berbers, who joined them and belonged to the former electorate of the Dutch Social Democrats, voted for the newly created DENK party, which has a goal in the parliament to uphold the interests and identity of ethnic minorities in order to force the Dutch majority take these minorities as they are - with all their traditions that are contrary to European culture. Tsargrad warned that Germany and other European countries, where diasporas are flourishing, are next in the line.

German politicians are shocked

No one has ever allowed himself such interference in the internal affairs of the leading country of the European Union before Erdogan, which Minister of Foreign Affairs Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) has admitted. It is unprecedented. Gabriel urged the citizens of Germany "to resist this unique act of intervention in the sovereignty of the country."

Really, let’s imagine, if Vladimir Putin appealed to numerous immigrants from Russia who settled in Germany and told them who they should not vote for, using a hint that it's time to take your destiny into your own hands ...

Therefore, even very cautious Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel responded sharply to the Turkish president this time: "We will not allow anyone, including President Erdogan, to interfere in the free choice of our citizens, including German citizens of Turkish origin." It is obvious that Erdogan's demarche was caused by her statement that it is impossible to continue negotiations between the EU and Turkey on creating the Customs Union.

Erdogan got rage

Deciding not to speak to the woman, Erdogan responded to her foreign minister, which once again shows that he really wants to make the German Turks quarrel with the German Social Democrats.

"He does not understand anything, who are you to talk to the President of the Republic of Turkey? Talk with the Turkish Foreign Minister. Know your place, do not tell us what to do, "Erdogan said.

"How long have you been in politics, how old are you?" The Turkish president continued to humiliate Gabriel.

The relations between Turkey and Germany and the EU are deteriorating rapidly and it is irreversible. Negotiations on joining the EU have come to a dead end and Ankara have not terminated yet just because there is an extra opportunity to blackmail the EU. The Turkish authorities suspect the EU and Germany, in particular, in supporting the failed coup d'état in the country. They are indignant because the Europeans favor the Kurds and Armenians and maintain a visa regime with Turkey, interfere constantly with their teaching and advice.
Unenviable prospects

Indeed, the European Union criticizes Ankara for mass arrests of oppositionists, suppression of Kurds, violations of "human rights" in general. More and more countries and Germany, as well, officially found Turkey guilty of the genocide of Armenians and other national minorities during the First World War, which causes wild anger in Ankara. This is because such blame usually means financial claims in today's world. Although the fact of the Armenian genocide cannot be denied, no one was an angel in that time. The scale of the mutual carnage, of course, is not comparable.

Their dispute went so far that Germany has announced the introduction of economic sanctions against Turkey recently.  It seems that even if Erdoganquits, which will happen one day, it will not guarantee that relations between Ankara and Berlin will return to normal. Since Erdogan's regime has his supporters, the national interests of Turkey really prevent its integration with the EU.
A precedent for the future

Taking into account the current situation, we can say the Turkish party can appear in the near future as it happened in the Netherlands. The German cabinet of ministers has a coalition nature. Therefore, when the Turkish party overcomes the 5 percent barrier (which is not difficult considering the huge diaspora), it may turn out to be a "king maker". That means that it could influence strongly the political processes in the country due to the number of the Turkish community.

And not only Germany or the Netherland have this destiny, but the whole Western Europe. Thanks to the demographics and the constant flow of new migrants, the positions of newcomers and the states from where these people came will become stronger every year. In general, Merkel will win the election in September. Considering the fact that Erdogan did not give her a "label to reign", the situation will not change. The CDU / CSU lost some percent of the votes among 40% of their voters, but it is not a problem yet. But this problem cannot be ignored in a couple of years. And what will happen in a couple of decades? Modern Western politicians prefer not to look further.