Britain will lose Falkland in the event of exit from the EU. Anyway

25.10.2018

Buenos Aires will use Brexit to “step up” diplomatic efforts to transfer the Malvinas (Falkland) Islands to Argentina. This was warned in an interview with the Daily Telegraph by the Argentine Foreign Minister Jorge Faurie. He once again recalled the plans of Buenos Aires, which, after the defeat in the war of 1982, did not put up with British colonial rule over part of its territory.

The hint of Faurie is that in case of leaving the EU, and even more so with the scandal, England’s allies will diminish, and the EU countries will not be obliged to support London in its confrontation with an important South American country on a matter of fundamental importance to it. The return of the Malvinas Islands is a national idea in Argentina.

This is exactly how the British newspaper assessed this situation: as soon as Brexit takes place without a deal, all agreements concluded by Britain with the EU will cease to operate, and European countries will not be obliged to support London’s territorial claims regarding the most European South America.

This is especially true of Spain, which has a typologically similar and no less acute problem with Gibraltar, the natives of which created Argentina. And also Italy, whose natives constitute a very significant in size, politically and economically important part of the population of the republic, linking the two countries with close ties. Argentina and is considered a kind of Latin American Italy. But there is often heard and German speech, especially in areas densely populated by ethnic Germans, and Russian too. Argentina has many allies.

Apart from the threat of the Falkland Islands joining Argentina at the moment, the newspaper considers, however, another very serious problem that Brexit poses to the Falklands and other British overseas territories. It is not at all clear whether the European commercial rules will be extended to British overseas territories that do not leave the EU, because they did not enter there, however, due to their “overseas” status, they had serious preferences in trade and cooperation. In November of this year, the leaders of Argentina and Britain will hold formal negotiations on trade issues after Brexit, where the problem of the Malvinas (Falkland) Islands cannot be avoided.

Another, equally important in practical terms, the Falklands problem is that their government, according to the BBC, “is seriously concerned about the likelihood that it will lose tax-free and unrestricted access to the European market with Britain, and believes that would be a disaster for the economy of the archipelago. "

This moment is the most important. It is unlikely that Argentina will decide in the near future on the military seizure of the Falklands, whose small population is politically loyal to the metropolis, which almost unanimously confirmed in a referendum in 2013, and that, in turn, will force London to military intervention. True, it is not a fact that this time the British will succeed in repulsing the islands - they have been diminishing in recent decades.

However, the creeping economic expansion, when due to Brexit the traditional economic and trade relations of Falklands with distant Europe are broken, and Britain is impoverished due to the rupture with the EU for some years is not up to tertiary, in the eyes of London, the problems of some islanders at the end of the world, gives Buenos Aires a very good chance of a peaceful rematch. Especially if the Argentine economy will be all right.

The “strategy of indirect actions” through the stomach and the obvious economic benefits may well achieve what was not possible in 1982 for 14,000 Argentine troops. According to GDP per capita, Falkland is in fifth place in the world, so they have something to lose.

Under these conditions, a peaceful conquest by Argentina’s bitter experience is not at all such an incredible prospect. This means that the Falklands will become the Malvines, most likely not in the distant future, but much earlier: the colonial British enclave will return to the multinational South American country to which it historically belonged.