The Syrian ceasefire is doomed to fail

12.09.2016

A new ceasefire has been declared in Syria. In accordance with the agreement reached by Russia and the United States, from midnight September 12 local time, the ceasefire will go into effect. It will last for 48 hours though it was stated that the ceasefire can be extended. However, most likely it will not bring any significant results.

Suspicious background

The framework for the agreement between Russia and the US was announced on Friday after talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry. The history of all previous agreements of this kind demonstrates their self-defeating nature. Usually Islamists supported by the US used these temporary respites for retrofitting and updating personnel, after which hostilities resumed.

American PR

The threat of the capture of Aleppo by the Syrian government forces has forced the United States to push this agreement. It will be used to strengthen the position of the Islamists. In addition, the Obama administration seeks to demonstrate to the Americans anything as an "achievement" in its policy on Syria.

The war continues

Despite the claims of the ceasefire, fighting continues in Aleppo, and in the south of Syria. Islamic radicals continue to attack government forces and civilians. At this time, the Syrian opposition faces practically impossible conditiona - to dissociate with former "Al-Nusra Front" (now "Jebhat Fatah al-Sham"). Since on the very fact all Islamists are cooperating with this terrorist organization, they are legitimate targets for the Russian air-force. In turn, since there is no unifying structure, it is not clear who falls under the ceasefire among the opposition.